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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:08 pm 
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I think it's looking more and more likely we will have a gap in the calendar this year -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51362823

FE have already cancelled their China and Hong Kong events.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 1:30 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think it's looking more and more likely we will have a gap in the calendar this year -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51362823

FE have already cancelled their China and Hong Kong events.


Given the rate at which the virus is spreading, that would not surprise me at all. Have heard one prediction that the contagion will peak sometime in April or even May. It may be like the cold or flu that it will ease as the weather warms up.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:11 pm 
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I can't see any way that it will go ahead.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:20 pm 
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Banana Man wrote:
I can't see any way that it will go ahead.


Yeah, if it was at the end of the calendar I could see it happening, but unfortunately it is in April.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:32 pm 
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This is something that has been puzzling me. Does anyone know why it is called ''Coronavirus'' and not ''Corona Virus''?

For example you can catch a ''Flu Virus'' but not a ''Fluvirus'' and you can catch ''Human Immunodeficiency Virus'' but not ''Human Immunodeficiencyvirus'' nor ''Humanimmunodeficiencyvirus''.

Or from another perspective, if ''Coronavirus'' is a virus, then does that make it ''Coronavirus Virus''?

Thank you.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:23 pm 
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F1 Racer wrote:
This is something that has been puzzling me. Does anyone know why it is called ''Coronavirus'' and not ''Corona Virus''?

For example you can catch a ''Flu Virus'' but not a ''Fluvirus'' and you can catch ''Human Immunodeficiency Virus'' but not ''Human Immunodeficiencyvirus'' nor ''Humanimmunodeficiencyvirus''.

Or from another perspective, if ''Coronavirus'' is a virus, then does that make it ''Coronavirus Virus''?

Thank you.


Pretty sure it's because Coronavirus is the type of virus it is, as opposed to the name of the actual virus. A Coronavirus is named after the shape of it (it has a crown shape designed to penetrate cells). The actual name of it is 2019-nCov.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:00 am 
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Flash2k11 wrote:
The actual name of it is 2019-nCov.

That just means 2019 novel Coronavirus, you know... It doesn't help explain why it's all run together.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:38 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Flash2k11 wrote:
The actual name of it is 2019-nCov.

That just means 2019 novel Coronavirus, you know... It doesn't help explain why it's all run together.


Well yeah, it hasn't got a proper name like SARS or MERS yet. I'd liken it to a 'football' being called that and not a 'foot ball' even though its still a type of ball.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:50 am 
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Its just a scientific classification. Humans are Order: Primates Class: Mammalia Genus: Homo Species: Sapiens

Viruses are the same:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_classification

You get families of for example Families are Astrovirus (Astroviridae), Calcivirus (Caliciviridae), or Parvovirus (Parvoviridae) so Coronavirus (Coronaviridae)
Within the family you get genus and species. This one is Genus Betacoronavirus; type species: Murine coronavirus

For simplicity this one is called 2019-nCov

SARS is an acronym of (severe acute respiratory syndrome) is caused by the SARS coronavirus, known as SARS CoV.

Coronavirus basically causes pneumonia.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:58 am 
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I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:24 pm 
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Just looking at the scale of the problem in China there is absolutely no way the Chinese GP will go ahead. There may well be other GP casualties this season as well.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:41 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:23 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

Stop taking my posts out of context. I never said it shouldn't receive press attention, or even criticised the volume of press attention. I criticised the hysteria deliberately being whipped up by the nature of the reporting on the outbreak.

On one hand it's good that it's making people overly cautious as it stops them from unnecessary travel - but at the other hand you have people saying that people who have contracted the disease should be forced to take the experimental treatments before they have gone through the medical testing procedures, and that if they contracted Coronavirus they would be demanding to take the experimental drugs themselves - which is utter madness because if you do contract Coronavirus and are otherwise healthy with an uncompromised immune system then you are likely to get better.

It's not a modern day black death, and it's far less deadly than Ebola was (which also wasn't a modern day black death) - what it requires is for people to listen to the advice of the experts and not have a knee jerk reaction because the press had convinced the entire Western world they are going to die if they come within 100 metres of a Chinese person.

The decision doesn't need to be made now, if the situation is the same as it is now, or worse, when the freight is ready to be sent, then they should cancel - but the cars haven't even gone through testing yet, so that's some time away yet and we don't know what the situation will be like then.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:58 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

Stop taking my posts out of context. I never said it shouldn't receive press attention, or even criticised the volume of press attention. I criticised the hysteria deliberately being whipped up by the nature of the reporting on the outbreak.

On one hand it's good that it's making people overly cautious as it stops them from unnecessary travel - but at the other hand you have people saying that people who have contracted the disease should be forced to take the experimental treatments before they have gone through the medical testing procedures, and that if they contracted Coronavirus they would be demanding to take the experimental drugs themselves - which is utter madness because if you do contract Coronavirus and are otherwise healthy with an uncompromised immune system then you are likely to get better.

It's not a modern day black death, and it's far less deadly than Ebola was (which also wasn't a modern day black death) - what it requires is for people to listen to the advice of the experts and not have a knee jerk reaction because the press had convinced the entire Western world they are going to die if they come within 100 metres of a Chinese person.

The decision doesn't need to be made now, if the situation is the same as it is now, or worse, when the freight is ready to be sent, then they should cancel - but the cars haven't even gone through testing yet, so that's some time away yet and we don't know what the situation will be like then.

I didn't really accuse you of anything, nor did I object to your post. I was complimenting your post with some graphics. I mentioned that it is getting press time because it has more deaths and impact than the infamous SARS virus.

I could question how do you quantify that the attention is disproportionate to the risk, but I didn't. I know we argued a bit recently, but you shouldn't be so defensive, please lower the pitchfork. I was not looking for an argument and I am sorry you took it the wrong way. I was merely trying to add the nice website that someone shared with me.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:10 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

Stop taking my posts out of context. I never said it shouldn't receive press attention, or even criticised the volume of press attention. I criticised the hysteria deliberately being whipped up by the nature of the reporting on the outbreak.

On one hand it's good that it's making people overly cautious as it stops them from unnecessary travel - but at the other hand you have people saying that people who have contracted the disease should be forced to take the experimental treatments before they have gone through the medical testing procedures, and that if they contracted Coronavirus they would be demanding to take the experimental drugs themselves - which is utter madness because if you do contract Coronavirus and are otherwise healthy with an uncompromised immune system then you are likely to get better.

It's not a modern day black death, and it's far less deadly than Ebola was (which also wasn't a modern day black death) - what it requires is for people to listen to the advice of the experts and not have a knee jerk reaction because the press had convinced the entire Western world they are going to die if they come within 100 metres of a Chinese person.

The decision doesn't need to be made now, if the situation is the same as it is now, or worse, when the freight is ready to be sent, then they should cancel - but the cars haven't even gone through testing yet, so that's some time away yet and we don't know what the situation will be like then.

I didn't really accuse you of anything, nor did I object to your post. I was complimenting your post with some graphics. I mentioned that it is getting press time because it has more deaths and impact than the infamous SARS virus.

I could question how do you quantify that the attention is disproportionate to the risk, but I didn't. I know we argued a bit recently, but you shouldn't be so defensive, please lower the pitchfork. I was not looking for an argument and I am sorry you took it the wrong way. I was merely trying to add the nice website that someone shared with me.

I apologize for the misunderstanding - I inferred from your post that you meant that I was downplaying the seriousness of the problem and it was that attitude that had led to the problem.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:17 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.


This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

Stop taking my posts out of context. I never said it shouldn't receive press attention, or even criticised the volume of press attention. I criticised the hysteria deliberately being whipped up by the nature of the reporting on the outbreak.

On one hand it's good that it's making people overly cautious as it stops them from unnecessary travel - but at the other hand you have people saying that people who have contracted the disease should be forced to take the experimental treatments before they have gone through the medical testing procedures, and that if they contracted Coronavirus they would be demanding to take the experimental drugs themselves - which is utter madness because if you do contract Coronavirus and are otherwise healthy with an uncompromised immune system then you are likely to get better.

It's not a modern day black death, and it's far less deadly than Ebola was (which also wasn't a modern day black death) - what it requires is for people to listen to the advice of the experts and not have a knee jerk reaction because the press had convinced the entire Western world they are going to die if they come within 100 metres of a Chinese person.

The decision doesn't need to be made now, if the situation is the same as it is now, or worse, when the freight is ready to be sent, then they should cancel - but the cars haven't even gone through testing yet, so that's some time away yet and we don't know what the situation will be like then.

I didn't really accuse you of anything, nor did I object to your post. I was complimenting your post with some graphics. I mentioned that it is getting press time because it has more deaths and impact than the infamous SARS virus.

I could question how do you quantify that the attention is disproportionate to the risk, but I didn't. I know we argued a bit recently, but you shouldn't be so defensive, please lower the pitchfork. I was not looking for an argument and I am sorry you took it the wrong way. I was merely trying to add the nice website that someone shared with me.

I apologize for the misunderstanding - I inferred from your post that you meant that I was downplaying the seriousness of the problem and it was that attitude that had led to the problem.

There's no harm done Alien, I apologize myself as my response above was a tad rude. So please don't take it too serious, I value your posts and I consider you one of the most interesting and nice to read posters here; all I really wanted to share the nice graphic webpage.

They have a case reported in Brighton now in the UK (where I am), so people are getting a bit scared around here.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:59 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.

This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

It hasn't surpassed SARS in death toll, just infection total. SARS killed 774 out of ~8,000; so far, the current outbreak has killed about 560 out of more than 28,000. It's holding very consistent at a ~2% fatality rate, whereas SARS hovered near to 10% for its brief, explosive run.

The MERS outbreak, for contrast, has a fatality rate in the 30s -- much more frightening if that had ever become widespread. That's a European Black Death level of survival (although as with all of these, it might not have kept at that level when it hit the 'first' world).

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:08 pm 
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There's absolutely no chance that Chinese go will go ahead fyi. The situation in China DIRE, insider stories giving it away probably Chinese government trying to play it down but it is dreadful at the moment


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:56 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
I don't think a decision will be made until much closer to the time. Nobody knows what the situation will be like in April, it could be worse, it could under control by then. The press coverage this is getting is disproportionate to the danger, for example you are twice as likely to get fatally shot if you visit the USA than dying from coronavirus if you visit China, and there is no discussion of cancelling the US grand prix. Having said that, it does make sense to avoid a virus epidemic if possible - but Shanghai is not in the affected province. It's still two months away, the decision doesn't need to be made before loading the airfreight to Shanghai, so a kneejark reaction now would serve no beneficial purpose.

This is a good illustration of the problem. It is not getting press for no reason, it has surpassed the SARS outbreak in death toll:

Coronavirus

From what I understand though, they have a good recovery rate, so there's that

It hasn't surpassed SARS in death toll, just infection total. SARS killed 774 out of ~8,000; so far, the current outbreak has killed about 560 out of more than 28,000. It's holding very consistent at a ~2% fatality rate, whereas SARS hovered near to 10% for its brief, explosive run.

The MERS outbreak, for contrast, has a fatality rate in the 30s -- much more frightening if that had ever become widespread. That's a European Black Death level of survival (although as with all of these, it might not have kept at that level when it hit the 'first' world).


Coronavirus is now in the 600+ and climbing, but you are right, I misread an article that said that the coronavirus has surpassed the SARS, however that was only in China, not worldwide. So that was my mistake. And yeah, that's why I said that there are many more recoveries reported with coronavirus than with other outbreaks before, which is the silver lining I guess.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:46 am 
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The death toll has surpassed 900 now, more cases reported outside China. Apparently 9 people died in China within 1 day.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:06 pm 
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Many Chinese people are going back to work today after the extended Chinese New Year celebrations.
This could be a testing time for controlling the spread.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:05 pm 
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Answer: yes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51471569


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:50 pm 
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JN23 wrote:

It's been postponed, not cancelled, but given the fact that the spread hadn't slowed since this thread started it's virtually impossible now that it would ever be sensible to proceed with it come April. Especially as F1 employees continue to travel the world - they would be perfect hosts for virus spreading...


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:51 pm 
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https://www.racefans.net/2020/02/12/ana ... d-f1-race/

Some news about some alternative dates, but I don't think there will be any confirmation any time soon. With all this going on, I think it would be best to leave it out unless it is totally under control.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:44 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
https://www.racefans.net/2020/02/12/analysis-the-four-alternative-dates-for-chinas-postponed-f1-race/

Some news about some alternative dates, but I don't think there will be any confirmation any time soon. With all this going on, I think it would be best to leave it out unless it is totally under control.

I think it is effectively cancelled. The organiser cancelled it so Liberty is off the hook. Had Liberty cancelled it then they would have had to reimburse the organiser if they couldn't reschedule it, so the two of them had been locked into a game of cancellation chicken.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:09 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
https://www.racefans.net/2020/02/12/analysis-the-four-alternative-dates-for-chinas-postponed-f1-race/

Some news about some alternative dates, but I don't think there will be any confirmation any time soon. With all this going on, I think it would be best to leave it out unless it is totally under control.

I think it is effectively cancelled. The organiser cancelled it so Liberty is off the hook. Had Liberty cancelled it then they would have had to reimburse the organiser if they couldn't reschedule it, so the two of them had been locked into a game of cancellation chicken.


Wouldn't they have clauses for things like that? Like "acts of god" kind of things? But yeah, it sounds very much like it is effectively cancelled.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:04 pm 
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The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:13 pm 
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j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Surely if it takes hold everywhere and becomes pandemic then the reason for cancellation fades away? If you're in no more danger in say Vietnam than most other places then there is no reason not to go there. Even if it's rife.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:05 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Surely if it takes hold everywhere and becomes pandemic then the reason for cancellation fades away? If you're in no more danger in say Vietnam than most other places then there is no reason not to go there. Even if it's rife.


Hold on there cowboy! What are you saying? A pandemic is a disease that affects a whole country or the entire world. It by NO MEANS implies that the whole country is effected so let's not bother about quarantines.

There are 9 cases in the UK out of 67 million people. The remainder of the population need protecting. Every country will have a very different response to the infection and the spread will vary. This is not the time to drop our defences.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:48 am 
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There would be 4 weeks break between Vietnam & Netherlands. Any change that any GP to be put ahead (Singapore or Russia or Japan)?

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:41 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Surely if it takes hold everywhere and becomes pandemic then the reason for cancellation fades away? If you're in no more danger in say Vietnam than most other places then there is no reason not to go there. Even if it's rife.


Hold on there cowboy! What are you saying? A pandemic is a disease that affects a whole country or the entire world. It by NO MEANS implies that the whole country is effected so let's not bother about quarantines.

There are 9 cases in the UK out of 67 million people. The remainder of the population need protecting. Every country will have a very different response to the infection and the spread will vary. This is not the time to drop our defences.


I'm talking about a situation here where we have lost. The virus has entered the world. No way of holding it back now. I'm not saying this is the situation now.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:36 am 
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j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Vietnam may be next: https://twitter.com/sunmotorsport/statu ... 66882?s=21


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:09 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Surely if it takes hold everywhere and becomes pandemic then the reason for cancellation fades away? If you're in no more danger in say Vietnam than most other places then there is no reason not to go there. Even if it's rife.


Hold on there cowboy! What are you saying? A pandemic is a disease that affects a whole country or the entire world. It by NO MEANS implies that the whole country is effected so let's not bother about quarantines.

There are 9 cases in the UK out of 67 million people. The remainder of the population need protecting. Every country will have a very different response to the infection and the spread will vary. This is not the time to drop our defences.


I'm talking about a situation here where we have lost. The virus has entered the world. No way of holding it back now. I'm not saying this is the situation now.


Why do think its lost? The fact that it might exist in countries doesn't mean everyone is going to get infected and catch the virus wholesale. You make it sound like Armageddon!

This is a completely illogical argument, if one person in each country catches the virus its technically a pandemic. This can be fatal but usually for vulnerable people, it can be isolated and dealt with. It will have a different spread pattern in different countries based on health hygiene policies.

We have NOT LOST, there ARE ways of holding it back, even if the virus was widespread it is not a treatment to let it run loose. Look at how the Ebola virus was controlled in heavily infected areas. Its not an answer to abandon a policy of isolation.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:48 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 16793
Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
j man wrote:
The way things seem to be going, I wonder if this will be the first of several races postponed. I'm not so sure about elsewhere but it does seem to be taking hold here in the UK with 9 cases confirmed now, and in a couple of months it could be much more than just a China problem.


Surely if it takes hold everywhere and becomes pandemic then the reason for cancellation fades away? If you're in no more danger in say Vietnam than most other places then there is no reason not to go there. Even if it's rife.


Hold on there cowboy! What are you saying? A pandemic is a disease that affects a whole country or the entire world. It by NO MEANS implies that the whole country is effected so let's not bother about quarantines.

There are 9 cases in the UK out of 67 million people. The remainder of the population need protecting. Every country will have a very different response to the infection and the spread will vary. This is not the time to drop our defences.


I'm talking about a situation here where we have lost. The virus has entered the world. No way of holding it back now. I'm not saying this is the situation now.


Why do think its lost? The fact that it might exist in countries doesn't mean everyone is going to get infected and catch the virus wholesale. You make it sound like Armageddon!

This is a completely illogical argument, if one person in each country catches the virus its technically a pandemic. This can be fatal but usually for vulnerable people, it can be isolated and dealt with. It will have a different spread pattern in different countries based on health hygiene policies.

We have NOT LOST, there ARE ways of holding it back, even if the virus was widespread it is not a treatment to let it run loose. Look at how the Ebola virus was controlled in heavily infected areas. Its not an answer to abandon a policy of isolation.


I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying we have lost yet. Losing doesn't mean Armageddon. It just means we have another virus in the general population. Once it gets to that point then isolation becomes obsolete as a strategy.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying we have lost yet. Losing doesn't mean Armageddon. It just means we have another virus in the general population. Once it gets to that point then isolation becomes obsolete as a strategy.

I'm not sure that's really true. Even if the virus is in the general population, it will almost certainly burn itself out in a certain timeframe -- just like a particularly severe strain of flu. Public gatherings are a hotbed for spreading even normal disease, so calling off something as large as a Grand Prix in any affected country could very well have a noticeable effect on the spread of the virus.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:01 am 
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It is 1,369 deaths now at some 60k cases reported. And still no signs of slowing down. China has taken the brunt of it (which was expected), with only one death reported outside China, in the Philippines I think. Add to this a reported unfortunate case in India of a man that he thought he had the virus and hang himself to save his family; tragically it turned out he didn't.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:23 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying we have lost yet. Losing doesn't mean Armageddon. It just means we have another virus in the general population. Once it gets to that point then isolation becomes obsolete as a strategy.


OK lets clarify then, what you are saying, you are saying don't isolate because 5000 people in a country have the virus so we are all going to get it anyway?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:35 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying we have lost yet. Losing doesn't mean Armageddon. It just means we have another virus in the general population. Once it gets to that point then isolation becomes obsolete as a strategy.


OK lets clarify then, what you are saying, you are saying don't isolate because 5000 people in a country have the virus so we are all going to get it anyway?


No. That's not even close to what i am saying. I don't know how else to say it really so probably best leave it.


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:24 am 
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Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:50 am
Posts: 1670
Location: UK
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think you are misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying we have lost yet. Losing doesn't mean Armageddon. It just means we have another virus in the general population. Once it gets to that point then isolation becomes obsolete as a strategy.


OK lets clarify then, what you are saying, you are saying don't isolate because 5000 people in a country have the virus so we are all going to get it anyway?


No. That's not even close to what i am saying. I don't know how else to say it really so probably best leave it.


Very wise!


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:09 pm 
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Good decision to cancel it.


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