lamo wrote:
We completely disagree on this then.
To me, Kimi beat Vettel on race pace once last year, Silverstone. This year he beat him on race pace in the very first race. If the pattern continues, Kimi will out perform Vettel for race pace many more times this year.
Last year was 19-1. So far this year is 2-1.
Last years qualifying was 18-2 (?). This years is 2-1 with Kimi being closer in 3/3 of the races compared to last year.
You use Bottas performance in 2017 compared to 2018 to ascertain that Hamilton has not looked strong this year, that is correct?
So using, Kimi's performance in 2017 and 2018 I struggle to see how anyone could not assess Vettel as below par this year?
Also using your method, Hamilton has lost about 0.3 this year. So if he had a slower team mate and was still 0.1 ahead of (like Vettel) he would still be performing ok?
Yes, I'd agree that Kimi beat Vettel on race pace initially in Australia, but I wasn't really impressed with him after the stops, tbh. Vettel was uncomfortable with the car, in the same way that Hamilton is now uncomfortable with the Mercedes. Which tells me that Hamilton could have a return to form in the same way that Vettel did.
I don't see the relevance of last year's qualifying battles to this one. This falls under the clinical heading I mentioned earlier. You're too hung up on stats without looking at what is actually behind them.
Kimi is practically famous for being extremely sensitive to car setup. I've always maintained that he can show decent one lap pace, but he tends to be much worse over a race distance. And he is prone to errors, particularly in qualifying. I don't recall specific errors this year so far, which suggests to me that he's a lot more comfortable in the car than previously. Which translates into better lap times. And this isn't just me, either - they were talking about it on SKY the other day (Herbert, I think). I've said for years that I think he can match almost anyone in qualifying, as long as he feels at one in the car (for which a list of conditions as long as your arm have to be met, but that's another story). But he invariably drops the ball during the race these days. So I don't see him matching Vettel (in qualifying) as meaning Vettel is having a bad day. If he beat him in the race then I would.
Bottas has never shown that kind of car sensitivity, as far as I can recall. And Hamilton is normally as reliable, pace-wise, as you can get. But the fact that he has publicly admitted that he is struggling means that there is no leap of faith needed for me. It's all out there in the open.
I couldn't disagree more about my "method" losing Hamilton 0.3s this year. I don't think you need to crunch numbers to see that Hamilton is off his game - how much is anybody's guess, but I'd suggest an on-form Hamilton would at the very least have split the Ferraris in Bahrain, and maybe even had taken pole. In which case we'd be having a very different conversation