Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
With two drivers like Kimi in the Ferrari, Mercedes would have won 9 races to Ferrari's 3 (I'll be generous and say neither copy of Kimi would have rammed Hamilton behind the safety car, so Baku probably goes their way). Hamilton would have a vast championship lead, and the Ferrari would look no better than it did in 2015.
Kimi is almost half a second slower than Vettel on race pace. That's a lot over the course of a Grand Prix, and it's why Vettel is leading the WDC while Ferrari isn't in contention for the WCC.
Kimi is also one of the worst drivers on the grid today. If you replace Vettal (a top 5 driver) with perhaps an average F1 driver (someone who is 8-12th best on the grid like perhaps Sainz or Perez) we would see the Ferrari in a similar position in the constructor's race. Kimi would have more points than he does (it's amazing how people don't seem to realize how many times his strategy has been sacrificed) and the average F1 driver would have a points haul similar to Bottas.
Let's assume you have a driver who is consistently 2 tenths slower than Vettel, both in qualifying and the race.
Australia: Wouldn't have been close enough to Hamilton to make the overcut work, but still finishes 2nd (barely).
China: No one was anywhere near Vettel, so still finishes 2nd, albeit almost 20 seconds off the lead.
Bahrain: At 2 tenths a lap slower, Hamilton catches him and passes him for the lead; finishes 2nd.
Russia: Finishes 2nd, but instead of hounding Bottas for the lead, both drivers are about 10 seconds off the lead.
Spain: Still 2nd - Ricciardo was over a minute behind.
Monaco: The Vettel substitute would have lost this one to Kimi, but Ferrari still wins.
Canada: Instead of finishing 4th, the substitute is 6th, just ahead of Kimi and behind both Force Indias.
Baku: If you assume the Vettel substitute wouldn't have rammed Lewis and got the penalty, Ferrari probably actually wins this one.
Austria: Not only does the substitute not win, he's jumped by both Ricciardo and Hamilton, finishing 4th ahead of Kimi.
Britain: This was a really bad performance by Vettel, so I'll be nice and say the substitute gets the same result.
Hungary: Without Vettel's pace, Ferrari is forced to swap the drivers and gets a 1-3 instead of a 1-2, with Kimi winning.
Spa: The substitute's slower pace puts him into Ricciardo's grip with about two laps to go, finishing 3rd.
So with a driver consistently 2 tenths a lap slower than Vettel, we get - instead of 220-213, as the points actually stand - 185-236, in favor of Lewis. Lewis has 7 wins to his 1. I don't think anybody would be talking about the cars being equal, or the Ferrari possibly ahead.
There are a few problems with this analysis, but its interesting none the less.
But one thing you have missed is when Vettel was being held up, a 0.2 a lap slower driver may still have been able to follow the car infront but this assumes him being pulled away from by 0.2...for exmaple - Vettel was faster than Bottas in Russia and Austria at the end of the race. He also appeared to be able to go quicker in Australia and Spa if Hamilton wasn't right ahead of him. So the 0.2 a lap slower version could have quite easily have matched his results in all these races. Australia he would have still won if his overcut laps were each 0.2 slower - he emerged 3 seconds ahead of Hamilton after his stop.
The same for Monaco, if each of his over cut laps had been 0.2 slower he still had a chance to over cut Raikkonen by going 1 more lap longer. He emerged about a second ahead if I remember correctly so even if he pitted the same lap it would be very close.
Hungary, he also still wins. 0.2 would not make any difference. Kimi didn't even get in DRS once, 0.2 wasn't going to make any difference to how that race unfolded - the dirty air was too strong - you needed to be 1.5-2.0 seconds a lap quicker to pass in Hungary.
Spa - how would that be close with Ricciardo. Once the SC went in, Vettel pulled 8 seconds on Ricciardo in 11 laps, that is over 0.7 per lap... so he would pull away at 0.5 per lap and finish comfortably 2nd.
Austria - he would not get jumped by Ricciardo or Hamilton, not only was he being held up by Bottas in the 2nd stint but he was more than 0.2 quicker than Ricciardo before being held up. You also couldn't pass.. so he finishes 2nd still and likely still right on Bottas' rear wing.
Bahrain - he managed the gap in the final stint and ran a pace to just bring it home. By the end he was doing laps the same speed as his out lap, Hamilton was doing laps a second slower than his. Hamilton had worn through his tyres, Vettel had at least a couple of tenths held back to push if he needed to.
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![:]](./images/smilies/icon_mrgreen.gif "Grin"){kind=icon}
. Im not sure what context you meant this in but I generally agree that its a waste of time in all contexts.
