planetf1.com

So the news is that robots are taking over, and by 2030 75% of jobs will be lost to robots/computers.

So how will this play out exactly?

Simple economics determine that an economy where 75% of the people are unemployed will not function. Amazon may indeed replace all their staff with robots, but who will buy their products if they have no jobs and no money?

Actually even a few million more unemployed would be enough to tip the world into recession, hopefully that would be enough of a warning, but the world is obsessed with automation.

People say, but robots will need building and servicing, as if other robots couldn't do these jobs. In fact ultimately what job can you actually think of that couldn't be done by a robot?

On the other hand, autonomous vehicles are apparently still ten years away. But with no jobs to go to, who will be able to afford or need a car anyway?

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

This has happened before. Not only when weavers were replaced with machines, but when girls with typewriters were replaced by copiers and printers.

The service industry will have to absorb many and as there will be so many not working there will be lots of leisure.

Its where spending money comes from is the problem,

I think it's the scale and speed of the change that is the potential problem.

I can see a time where there's a political party like Ukip which promises to rid the country of robots and restore jobs...

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

As far as the UK, Japan USA etc is concerned, it will be eased considerably due to an ageing population reaching retirement age and having pensions to spend. Countries with young populations will suffer worse

I first saw that probably almost 2 years ago. The scary part is how quick it is happing. I notice more and more now there is no "check out girl" when you buy, and they go to great lengths to get you to pay with an app so you dont even need to see anyone.

The only saving feature I can see from that, is the comparison with horses, and that Horses dont buy the product, people do. Hopefully this will introduce some sort of feedback loop.

Startrek has the answer, give everyone a replicator and ask who wants to go exploring

Yep the only way automation will work I if money doesn't exist anymore! Star trek showing us the way

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There is no theory of evolution, just a list of animals that Chuck Norris allows to live.

Interesting stuff. I wonder though, in the UK there is a huge amount of small companies employing small numbers of people. I just can't imagine those kinds of companies investing in robots any time soon. I suppose the question is will those companies be able to compete and will they survive?

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

So...

Robots take over jobs
Two or three million people in the UK become unemployed
Inevitable recession
Firms start going bust
More people unemployed
Slide into depression
Govt aren't getting enough in taxes to pay welfare
And so on...

I imagine we would see just a few companies owning and making everything
Plus if robots do everything perfectly then the only differential is price, so it's a race to the bottom
So even the few companies that do make anything won't be making much profit, especially as the demand for everything plummets

Actually the best thing for the companies would be full employment, as then everyone would be spending.
So really all this automation is a massive shot in their own foot.

As for the autonomous vehicles, well they will be dead in the water, since no jobs = no cars.

Thanks God I'm 47 and not 17.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Also...

No jobs, no need for people to live near cities anymore, so no housing bubble... house prices in London fall through the floor.

And by the time HS2 is finished it will be pointless.

Of course, this all does rather presume that people will just roll over and take it. Maybe we'll go all 'French' and boycott companies that use robots. Maybe people will simply abandon coffee shops with no baristas... wouldn't it be great if people just used a bit of foresight and said 'F-this'. It certainly looks like a golden opportunity for someone to use that as a clarion call to further their political career.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Do you need the address for "Anonymous"

Sure, the resistance has to start somewhere!

Mind you, no cars = no F1.

Then again, given that I work in the F1 supply chain and given that most of the companies I deal with don't even ask for their invoices to be emailed yet, I'm kind of thinking that all this may be a little bit scaremongery...

I can see that warehouses can be automated and I think that's much more likely than a lot of this stuff. Sure it could be done, but for instance, delivery drivers are not going to be replaced anytime soon. If we were starting from scratch where everything could be designed to be accesible and convenient then yes, but too much of the UK's industry is based in shonky old buildings down narrow side streets with restricted parking etc... in fact I'm not even going to think about this any more because while I can see that some of this will happen I think the timeframe is way off.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Based on sci-fi, some options are:


Machines take all the jobs. Everyone gets poorer. The robots break away into their own nation. We try to kill them, they win.

All this has happened before and will happen again. We are all descended from some sexy space robots and some sexy space humans!

Skynet is born, dies, doesn't die, happens anyway, is living in the internet.

Giant space aliens come along every once in a while so the AI doesn't kill us all.

We are all in a simulation anyway, so doesn't matter.

We'll breed a Clone Army to destroy the robots.

The robots will strive to become human over two centuries.

The robots will be programmed with 3 laws and it'll all be fine or it won't.

Advanced robot technology will let us make cybernetic Jesus police.

The robots won't let us do that, Dave.

They'll shrink our Capital Cities and annoy Superman.

They'll bend metal and drink but mostly be okay.

They'll protect us from Danger, Will Robinsn, danger!

They'll pilot our spaceships and strive to be human.

They'll turn into sexbots that can fight hellgods briefly.

One thing that I jut thought about is that the one lever big companies have when it comes to dealing with governments is that they create jobs for people. Without that there's really no need to give anyone tax deals anymore...

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

What about, a self replicating virus is embedded in every chip blown since 2K and
one day we wake up and nothing works
one day we wake up and machines have killed us all
one day we wake up and machines thought it was such a good idea they did the same to us, and we're gone
one day we wake up and machines are in charge and we have to do the work
one day we wake up and machines have hollowed out astriods and all left in the night
one day we wake up and machines have hollowed out astriods and we are all in them heading north

There is apparently a trial going on right now in London for a bot to replace aspects of the NHS 111 helpline i.e. if you fall ill then rather than speak to a person on the end of an emergency phone line you will interact with a bot via an app.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2 ... -helpline/

This may sound made up, but when I phone places like thet I use a bot (well , an app. Weq4u)
Would it not be ironoc if we had a bet each end of the line talking to eachother

My company still uses Windows 98... so really, robots are not very likely!

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Could be because they are tightwads, in which case as soon as a robot is cheaper, you are gone

One thing I have noticed is that although Asda have self serve tills, people seem reluctant to use them. I've seen queues at staffed tills and self serv tills standing empty. I don't think people are that keen on the idea to be honest.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

I do that on principle. Same in the bank where they have someone trying to get you to use the automated pay in system etc. They are often insistent they demonstrate it to me and I usually have to say I do it to preserve their job before they get the message. Most seem to think it is not them who wil be dumped.

I try to exclusively use the self serve. But I'd like to cut out as much human contact as I possibly can. Robots might be good for me actually.

Yeh, save you having to get up in the morning and go out to work

Talk about conflicting messages... on the one hand we're all going to be replaced by machines, on the other by 2050 70% of people will live in the city and we will be hailing Uber Jetpacks... not much 'joined up thinking' going on is there. If there are no jobs why would people live in the city? Why would anyone put up with living in a 2ft square apartment in London if they didn't have to?

And then, rather hilariously, this morning they are talking about Norway turning off FM radio and going digital, whereas we aren't nearly in a position to do this because 50% of the cars on the road have no digital radio and they're saying it's going to be at least another 5 years. Just to switch to digital radio! I find some of the timescales talked about rather optimistic...

Actually the more you think about this the more you can see the ultimate distillation of this being a huge revolution in the economy. People talk about efficiency, but money is made from inefficiency. For example, it would be more efficient for a builder to buy his bricks from a brick company, but he can't. He buys them from Wickes, who buy them from an importer (I imagine) who buys them from the people who make them. Okay, not a very good example, but you can see what I'm saying, all these levels of trade create employment, not only in the companies involved but also in the frieght between each company.

The upshot could be much cheaper prices to the builder if he could order direct, but of course there won't be any builders because he will have been replaced by a robot. So the robot will just send his order direct.

All of this of course is going to leave countries absolutely dependent on the internet to a ludicrous degree (if we aren't already) and perhaps it will be possible to bring a country to it's knees just by hacking

You know, the sooner the internet is destroyed the better.

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Almost all supermarkets and factories now operate on J.I.T. (just in time). Orders for goods sold yesterday or components needed for build this afternoon went to the warehouse last evening and were put on the truck to travel overnight and arrive for start of business this morning.

Not all, but by far most warehouses are serviced by "robot", who get the command to look at the list, go to the location by it and bring the box from there to but on the truck number xxxx. (getting the truck to go to yyy by its self is a minor extension). Goods arive at the warehouse by the same method, so when todays goods are despatched, if the truck is not there with refills, the box for xxxx will not be there tomorrow

Messing this up could easily leave a whole chain of supermarkets without essentials or factories unable to continue production. One "e-bomb" could cost millions and even start panic in the high street.

But... what will we do for porn?!?

Well I've still got a stash of DVDs somewhere...

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

After this past week of humans running the world I would just like to say that I welcome our new machine overlords with open arms.

Just this past week?

Ho its not all bad we will just have 2000AD style block war's just cos were bored. or think up a world not based on work and money I'm not overly opposed to that, some may struggle to find a point in life others like me would just like the free time to be inventive.

Aha good point, no but I guess I've been confident that we are progressing and learning from past mistakes, now I'm not so sure. Anyway sorry for the slightly off topic post.

I do wonder what the tipping point will be with all of this automation. Like ALESI says the economy simply wouldn't work if no one had money, yet it's inevitable that robotics will progress to the point of being able to do certain things better than humans for less cost, and it's also inevitable that people will seek profit no matter the long term implications.

Maybe everyone agreeing not to use robots for things like delivering goods etc. would be the best thing to do, but it won't happen. So while the world won't become 100% autonomous overnight large numbers of people could be replaced enough to make this become a real issue pretty quickly.

So as that video ATH posted says, it's going to happen and it's going to cause problems if we don't plan ahead, even if these predictions in the OP are a little extreme. I wonder if a universal basic income system could start to work in a situation where say 25-30% of jobs currently done by humans become automated?

At the risk of sounding Ludd like, I think maybe a machine tax would not be such a bad thing. When someone does a job, they pay tax toward the system which includes unemployment etc, and if this minimum payment is enough to get by on it would probably tide us over into the next phase of things.

Yes, it sounds bad saying tax the machine, but is it worse than saying tax the human worker? (Ah, a can of worms approaches )

Maybe I'm being naïve but people were worried about this way back in the 1800s as previously manual tasks started to be done by machines on a large scale in factories, and the human element to previously skilled manufacturing jobs seemed to be evaporating. Yet here we are today, still worrying about the same thing...

I have actually just been watching a vid about cryptocurrency and blockchains and bitcoins etc.



It makes my head spin but is very relevant to this



BTW, this guys vids are all excellent, well worth subscribing. Isaac Arthur, futurist.

The difference is that then the worry was machines replacing physical labour, which to be fair it largely has done, what was once done by 20 men with shovels is now done by one man in a digger, in a fraction of the time.

Machinery can out muscle humans and have replaced a lot of physical labour jobs as a result, what happens if machines can out think humans too?

Well, they will realise that only humans have money to spend on things that need new machines to be made, so they had better look after us if they want to continue to exist

somewhat fragmented but good







and this is the guy that just sold linkedin to google




I like his basic income idea because that would leave people with far more time to help others.
Now, someone comes home from work and cant wait to see the family and have a sit. With this, you could stroll around next door and see if the old woman needs any help or volunteer for social work, or just get more educated.