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Which way will you vote?
Conservative 30%  30%  [ 41 ]
Labour 7%  7%  [ 9 ]
Liberal Democrats 26%  26%  [ 35 ]
UKIP 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Scottish National Party 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Greens 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Democratic Unionist Party 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Plaid Cymru 5%  5%  [ 7 ]
Sinn Fein 11%  11%  [ 15 ]
Gavin Henson/Other 10%  10%  [ 14 ]
Total votes : 135
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:39 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


am I missing something or is 149 + 83 = 232?

Maths has changed, man


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:42 pm 
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happyhooker wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


am I missing something or is 149 + 83 = 232?

Maths has changed, man

It's now Math


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:45 pm 
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Saint wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Leinster in London wrote:
The original dividing line between hard and soft brexit was WTO v Swiss/norwegian model (EEA/EFTA)
They are still different.
As May wants a bespoke it is technically neither, but is still tending towards Swiss/Norwegian.



Reluctant remainer position would be Swiss model really.


I must have missed that option on the ballot paper



REMAIN


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:49 pm 
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"Remain"= a model based on a country which is not now nor has ever been in the EU. Okay.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:50 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
"Remain"= a model based on a country which is not now nor has ever been in the EU. Okay.

:lol: Boom


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:52 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
"Remain"= a model based on a country which is not now nor has ever been in the EU. Okay.



Well quite, I realise a little nuanced .


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:59 pm 
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except Switzerland isn't in the EU

Remain means remain.

Brexit may mean Brexit but the nature of leaving (not remaining!) admitted Norwegian and Swiss style models as examples of what leaving the EU could have come to resemble.

The upshot is that there is no mandate for a hard brexit as this further question was never put to the electorate and claims that there is such a mandate would be based on a presumption that 95% of the 52% supported the hard brexit line. I respect the Leave voters too much to believe that.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:54 pm 
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great piece by CityMetric on why John McDonnell's arbitrary "all people earning above £70k must pay more tax" is a little dumb when you consider that those earning £70k or more are often living in much more expensive areas anyway

Image

Quote:
The bottom left quadrant contains cities with both wages and house prices which are below the national average. From the standpoint of Bradford, Manchester or Cardiff, say, then yes, £70,000 seems like a good salary, for the very good reason that it is.

In Wigan, in the very bottom left corner, average wages are less than £22,000, and you can get an average house for under £130,000. If McDonnell’s message resonated anywhere, it’ll be here.

The bottom right quadrant contains cities where wages are higher, but house prices are still below the national average. It’s a slightly baffling mix – Swindon, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Derby. McDonnell’s message will play worse here: £70,000 may sound like a less impressive salary, and wealth is a less important part of the equation.

Things get worse still in the top right corner: the cities where many people are likely to earn high salaries but still can’t get on the housing ladder, and thus feel all poor and hard done by.

You can probably guess which cities you’d find here: Oxford, Cambridge, the M4 corridor, and, in the far corner, inevitably, London. The sort of people who say baffling things like, “I don’t know anyone who’d think £70,000 a year made you rich” will largely live in places like these.

Lastly, in the top left quadrant are cities where wages are below the national average, but house prices, cruelly, are above it. They’re all London commuter towns; and except for one (Basildon) all seaside resorts too (Southend, Worthing, Bournemouth, Brighton).

The obvious explanation is that these are places where London exiles have bid up the house prices, while local wages have stubbornly remained low. What people in these would make of McDonnell’s comments is anybody’s guess.


http://www.citymetric.com/politics/yes- ... thers-2976


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:02 pm 
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Let's be fair, £70k is a pittance.

Most people earning £70k+ have: a) Children; b) No longer get child benefit (which is an absolute disgrace); c) Have all sorts of outgoings, and generally live in expensive areas of the country where houses cost a bomb.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:33 pm 
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MrDominator wrote:
Let's be fair, £70k is a pittance.


Image


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:44 pm 
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shereblue wrote:
except Switzerland isn't in the EU

Remain means remain.

Brexit may mean Brexit but the nature of leaving (not remaining!) admitted Norwegian and Swiss style models as examples of what leaving the EU could have come to resemble.

The upshot is that there is no mandate for a hard brexit as this further question was never put to the electorate and claims that there is such a mandate would be based on a presumption that 95% of the 52% supported the hard brexit line. I respect the Leave voters too much to believe that.

Well that means you believe they voted for soft brexit which includes continued £350m budget payments, free movement of peoples and continued adherence to EU laws. Personally, I don't believe many of the 52% voted for those.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:14 am 
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Exactly, despite all the earnings that voting for brexit would mean leaving he EU people still voted to,leave.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:51 am 
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my point was that if you take the Norway and Swiss models (ie non EU) mooted as options , pre Brexit, then if only 5% of the 52% leave voters thought those sort of arrangements might be reasonable, then, taken with the 48% remain voters who would obviously oppose a hard Brexit, there would be no majority support for a hard brexit.

A General Election with Corbyn as the alternative does not give any mandate to the hard brexiteers.

May is an absolute flip flopper, wanting to be in control at any cost.

I'm a remainer, no wait a minute, in spite of this my mission now is to take the UK out of the EU and no Swiss or Norwegian style models admissible
No, No, No, No, No, No, No well definitely yes to an election
No tax increases well yes to NI increases, wait a minute, no after all
No Tax increases manifesto then, we will absolutely impose a Probate "fee" increase from £155 to £20,000 for a £2m. estate and even to £4,000 for an estate comprising just one Council House in London, oh wait a minute there's an election let's scrap the Probate fee idea


By all means vote for her but please don't set any store whatsoever by what the manifesto pledges if it's anything more than she will make her mind up as she goes along (which admittedly might still be better than the alternative)


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:06 am 
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bessantj wrote:
MrDominator wrote:
Let's be fair, £70k is a pittance.


Image


£70k isn't a pittance, it's still a very healthy salary wherever you live. the rest of MrDom's points are however valid, generally speaking few people consider what cost of living is in areas where people are earning high salaries


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:42 am 
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Regarding 70k it's all how that's earned. A family with two children, mortgage and 2'average cars with a single earner commuting and earning 70k wouldn't feel rich by any reasonable measure. They'd be able to do prezzo occasionally and maybe a holiday, but if that's what Macdonald thinks is Rich then them being in power is terrifying.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:43 am 
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Corbyn makes a big populist play for young voters by pledging to scrap tuition fees

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn has set out a £10bn plan to scrap all tuition fees and restore student maintenance grants in his first major policy announcement.

Corbyn said the plan could be funded either by a 7% rise in national insurance for those earning over £50,000 a year and a 2.5% higher corporation tax, or by slowing the pace at which the deficit is reduced.

Corbyn said: “I want to apologise on behalf of the Labour party to the last generation of students for the imposition of fees, top-up fees and the replacement of grants with loans by previous Labour governments. I opposed those changes at the time – as did many others – and now we have an opportunity to change course.”

The move is also designed to strengthen the already strong support his campaign is gaining among younger Labour members.

Corbyn aides said the cost of abolishing tuition fees would be £7.1bn and the cost of restoring maintenance grants would be £3bn.

It is the first detailed new policy Corbyn has set out since he entered the contest.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ?CMP=fb_gu


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:47 am 
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At the hands of a more competent political operator I would assume that was a deliberate play to make life difficult for the Lib Dems. With Corbyn I doubt there's anything that far-sighted going on


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:50 am 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
At the hands of a more competent political operator I would assume that was a deliberate play to make life difficult for the Lib Dems. With Corbyn I doubt there's anything that far-sighted going on


equally if Corbyn realises it's a policy with traction among young voters then he can try and pull May even more to the left to compromise her in the eyes of the Tory right


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:51 am 
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openclashXX wrote:
Corbyn makes a big populist play for young voters by pledging to scrap tuition fees

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn has set out a £10bn plan to scrap all tuition fees and restore student maintenance grants in his first major policy announcement.

Corbyn said the plan could be funded either by a 7% rise in national insurance for those earning over £50,000 a year and a 2.5% higher corporation tax, or by slowing the pace at which the deficit is reduced.

Corbyn said: “I want to apologise on behalf of the Labour party to the last generation of students for the imposition of fees, top-up fees and the replacement of grants with loans by previous Labour governments. I opposed those changes at the time – as did many others – and now we have an opportunity to change course.”

The move is also designed to strengthen the already strong support his campaign is gaining among younger Labour members.

Corbyn aides said the cost of abolishing tuition fees would be £7.1bn and the cost of restoring maintenance grants would be £3bn.

It is the first detailed new policy Corbyn has set out since he entered the contest.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ?CMP=fb_gu


How much slower can we pay off the deficit? And as for a further 7% on NI :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:01 am 
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So 20% NI on earnings over 50k combined with their other plans would mean the state taking nearly 70% of earnings over 70k or 75% of earnings over 100. Truly insane if he thought they'd be increased corporation tax left regardless of 2.5% rise. Quite astonishing.


It's also worth remembering the tax burden in the UK today is at a historical high, post 38/39% of GDP it just stops for various reasons.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:05 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Regarding 70k it's all how that's earned. A family with two children, mortgage and 2'average cars with a single earner commuting and earning 70k wouldn't feel rich by any reasonable measure. They'd be able to do prezzo occasionally and maybe a holiday, but if that's what Macdonald thinks is Rich then them being in power is terrifying.

Are you terrified petal :((
Terrifying :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:21 am 
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bimboman wrote:
So 20% NI on earnings over 50k combined with their other plans would mean the state taking nearly 70% of earnings over 70k or 75% of earnings over 100. Truly insane if he thought they'd be increased corporation tax left regardless of 2.5% rise. Quite astonishing.


It's also worth remembering the tax burden in the UK today is at a historical high, post 38/39% of GDP it just stops for various reasons.


Dumb lefty economics.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:26 am 
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Corbyn doesn't seem to have left himself any room, he's already at 70-75% top rate tax after announcing just one policy, if he wants to plough more money into the NHS or nationalising industries or funding Hamas or whatever it is he wants to get done then he's going to have to go even higher


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:31 am 
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openclashXX wrote:
Corbyn makes a big populist play for young voters by pledging to scrap tuition fees

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn has set out a £10bn plan to scrap all tuition fees and restore student maintenance grants in his first major policy announcement.

Corbyn said the plan could be funded either by a 7% rise in national insurance for those earning over £50,000 a year and a 2.5% higher corporation tax, or by slowing the pace at which the deficit is reduced.

Corbyn said: “I want to apologise on behalf of the Labour party to the last generation of students for the imposition of fees, top-up fees and the replacement of grants with loans by previous Labour governments. I opposed those changes at the time – as did many others – and now we have an opportunity to change course.”

The move is also designed to strengthen the already strong support his campaign is gaining among younger Labour members.

Corbyn aides said the cost of abolishing tuition fees would be £7.1bn and the cost of restoring maintenance grants would be £3bn.

It is the first detailed new policy Corbyn has set out since he entered the contest.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ?CMP=fb_gu


The real scandal is the percentage interest rate on the student loan increasing so much - apparently it's going up to 7% and being sold to private investors.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:34 am 
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The real reason anti establishment Nigel doesn't want to stand as an MP

Image


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:44 am 
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c69 wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Regarding 70k it's all how that's earned. A family with two children, mortgage and 2'average cars with a single earner commuting and earning 70k wouldn't feel rich by any reasonable measure. They'd be able to do prezzo occasionally and maybe a holiday, but if that's what Macdonald thinks is Rich then them being in power is terrifying.

Are you terrified petal :((
Terrifying :lol:



I don't know what you're laughing at, a large portions of any increase in NHS spending would go on NI increases for your better paid.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:47 am 
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Quote:
The real scandal is the percentage interest rate on the student loan increasing so much - apparently it's going up to 7% and being sold to private investors.




Apparently. :lol:


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:50 am 
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bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The real scandal is the percentage interest rate on the student loan increasing so much - apparently it's going up to 7% and being sold to private investors.




Apparently. :lol:


You're right, it's going up to 6.1% . I'm happy to know that young kids being plunged into debt tickles you though.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:53 am 
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I like haggis wrote:
bimboman wrote:
Quote:
The real scandal is the percentage interest rate on the student loan increasing so much - apparently it's going up to 7% and being sold to private investors.




Apparently. :lol:


You're right, it's going up to 6.1% . I'm happy to know that young kids being plunged into debt tickles you though.



http://www.slc.co.uk/services/interest-rates.aspx


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:53 am 
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I like haggis wrote:
I'm happy to know that young kids being plunged into debt tickles you though.


what's really laughable is taxpayers having to foot the bill for little Jimmy’s university degree in Lesbian Dance Theory


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:20 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
Corbyn makes a big populist play for young voters by pledging to scrap tuition fees

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn has set out a £10bn plan to scrap all tuition fees and restore student maintenance grants in his first major policy announcement.

Corbyn said the plan could be funded either by a 7% rise in national insurance for those earning over £50,000 a year and a 2.5% higher corporation tax, or by slowing the pace at which the deficit is reduced.

Corbyn said: “I want to apologise on behalf of the Labour party to the last generation of students for the imposition of fees, top-up fees and the replacement of grants with loans by previous Labour governments. I opposed those changes at the time – as did many others – and now we have an opportunity to change course.”

The move is also designed to strengthen the already strong support his campaign is gaining among younger Labour members.

Corbyn aides said the cost of abolishing tuition fees would be £7.1bn and the cost of restoring maintenance grants would be £3bn.

It is the first detailed new policy Corbyn has set out since he entered the contest.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ?CMP=fb_gu


Interesting:

1) That is the Lib Dems pitch for student votes f**k

2) It's getting likely that Corbyn will be attacked for either needing to raise taxes drastically or not having costed his promises in a realistic fashion or both. he will get hammered.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 1:47 pm 
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Here is the essential GE quiz

http://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz

Plaid for me


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:15 pm 
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70% Cons
59% UKIP
44% LD
40% Lab

my political ideology is apparently centrist (very slightly to the libertarian right)


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:26 pm 
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73% Cons
56% UKIP
48% DUP (Really?????? I abhor those people!)
48% BNP (???????)
26% Labour
26% Lib Dem
19% SNP (I like their immigration policy apparently)
16% Plaid
10% Green
10% SF

Apparently I'm moderately right wing. The interesting bit is that I'm a whopping 78 on the scale towards deregulation. I knew I believed in free markets, but that's a huge stake in that direction.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:26 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
I'm happy to know that young kids being plunged into debt tickles you though.


what's really laughable is taxpayers having to foot the bill for little Jimmy’s university degree in Lesbian Dance Theory


I would be very interested to read the prospectus for that degree if you have it handy? Would hate to think you're making up a silly degree title to prove a point.

I also meant that tuition fees is a bit moot because they won't be abolished to get young people and students really interested is to look at the interest rates increasing on loans they knew nothing about and as the education system in this country when most piss entry level jobs and traditionally college based vocations like nursing now require a university degree are powerless to avoid. If the Government were sensible and brought back technical colleges we would avoid the situation where all young people are pushed towards university at all cost.

But don't let hyperbole get in your way.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:38 pm 
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Newby1 wrote:
73% Cons
56% UKIP
48% DUP (Really?????? I abhor those people!)
48% BNP (???????)
26% Labour
26% Lib Dem
19% SNP (I like their immigration policy apparently)
16% Plaid
10% Green
10% SF

Apparently I'm moderately right wing. The interesting bit is that I'm a whopping 78 on the scale towards deregulation. I knew I believed in free markets, but that's a huge stake in that direction.


Very similar scores to me.

The trouble with those questionnaires is that they heavily load the questions - take the most extreme view of a position then try to make it a yes/no answer. It's very easy to end up opposing a party whose position you actually agree with, and it will tend to over-emphasise any positive you give


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:41 pm 
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I like haggis wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
I like haggis wrote:
I'm happy to know that young kids being plunged into debt tickles you though.


what's really laughable is taxpayers having to foot the bill for little Jimmy’s university degree in Lesbian Dance Theory


I would be very interested to read the prospectus for that degree if you have it handy? Would hate to think you're making up a silly degree title to prove a point.

I also meant that tuition fees is a bit moot because they won't be abolished to get young people and students really interested is to look at the interest rates increasing on loans they knew nothing about and as the education system in this country when most piss entry level jobs and traditionally college based vocations like nursing now require a university degree are powerless to avoid. If the Government were sensible and brought back technical colleges we would avoid the situation where all young people are pushed towards university at all cost.

But don't let hyperbole get in your way.


there's plenty of joke degrees around, and having ultra-low interest rates on student loans just incentivises people to enroll in more of them


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:42 pm 
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Quote:
Conservatives
I side with Conservatives on most political issues of the 2017 Election

64% Conservative
Science • Transportation • Immigration • Foreign Policy • Domestic Policy • Economic • Healthcare • Electoral • Environmental

58% UKIP
Immigration • Foreign Policy • Education • Science • Economic • Domestic Policy • Social • Electoral • Environmental

33% Liberal Democrat
Science

32% Labour
Education • Domestic Policy

29% British National
National Security • Science • Social • Electoral • Environmental

21% Democratic Unionist
Science • Social • Electoral

20% Green
on no major issues

19% SNP
on no major issues

15% Plaid Cymru
on no major issues

15% Sinn Féin
on no major issues


Thats what I got :lol: DUP and BNP in the middle, WTF


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:57 pm 
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Saint wrote:
Newby1 wrote:
73% Cons
56% UKIP
48% DUP (Really?????? I abhor those people!)
48% BNP (???????)
26% Labour
26% Lib Dem
19% SNP (I like their immigration policy apparently)
16% Plaid
10% Green
10% SF

Apparently I'm moderately right wing. The interesting bit is that I'm a whopping 78 on the scale towards deregulation. I knew I believed in free markets, but that's a huge stake in that direction.


Very similar scores to me.

The trouble with those questionnaires is that they heavily load the questions - take the most extreme view of a position then try to make it a yes/no answer. It's very easy to end up opposing a party whose position you actually agree with, and it will tend to over-emphasise any positive you give


What's the voting scene in south Oxon like? I moved here after the last election from a Tory stronghold. I'm guessing its similar here?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:02 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
Corbyn makes a big populist play for young voters by pledging to scrap tuition fees

Quote:
Jeremy Corbyn has set out a £10bn plan to scrap all tuition fees and restore student maintenance grants in his first major policy announcement.

Corbyn said the plan could be funded either by a 7% rise in national insurance for those earning over £50,000 a year and a 2.5% higher corporation tax, or by slowing the pace at which the deficit is reduced.

Corbyn said: “I want to apologise on behalf of the Labour party to the last generation of students for the imposition of fees, top-up fees and the replacement of grants with loans by previous Labour governments. I opposed those changes at the time – as did many others – and now we have an opportunity to change course.”

The move is also designed to strengthen the already strong support his campaign is gaining among younger Labour members.

Corbyn aides said the cost of abolishing tuition fees would be £7.1bn and the cost of restoring maintenance grants would be £3bn.

It is the first detailed new policy Corbyn has set out since he entered the contest.


https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... ?CMP=fb_gu


Interesting:

1) That is the Lib Dems pitch for student votes f**k

2) It's getting likely that Corbyn will be attacked for either needing to raise taxes drastically or not having costed his promises in a realistic fashion or both. he will get hammered.

He will get hammered whatever he says


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