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Which way will you vote?
Conservative 30%  30%  [ 41 ]
Labour 7%  7%  [ 9 ]
Liberal Democrats 26%  26%  [ 35 ]
UKIP 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Scottish National Party 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Greens 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Democratic Unionist Party 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Plaid Cymru 5%  5%  [ 7 ]
Sinn Fein 11%  11%  [ 15 ]
Gavin Henson/Other 10%  10%  [ 14 ]
Total votes : 135
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Saint wrote:
theo wrote:
kagamusha wrote:

The EU have called her bluff, May has found out that the only brexit is a hard brexit which is why she has called an election.

I don't think that is set in stone yet. My sense is that she needs to hold a larger majority to have more wriggle room to negotiate a deal that might be unpalatable to her staunch Brexiteers.


Very much this. There's an amusing polarity in political discussion at the moment, where on one side you have the SNP, LibDems etc all claiming that this is a Tory smokescreen to try and get loads of MPs to guarantee a very extreme Brexit, while on the other side you have the Tory voters and most external political commentators viewing this as a chance to try and get loads of MPs in order to guarantee that they don't get a very extreme Brexit.

With most of the opposition guaranteeing to vote against the result of any Brexit negotatiation unless it contains provisions that will be almost impossible to extract, the only result the current government can realistically achieve right now is to just crash out and hope to pick up the pieces later. With a majority of onoy 12, the hardliners in her own party won't permit any other alternative.

If she can get to 80+ seats then she can soften the deal significantly and still get it through parliament even with the opposition voting against it. The EU are in favour of this because they understand that negotaiations are far more likely to be fruitful as there will be some room to actually negotiate


Well put and I'm in total agreement on this opinion on Theresa May's mostly like intended outcomes.

The lefty accusations that she wants an "extreme" Brexit sound ridiculous given she was a Remainer. Also almost her whole Government are Remainers and her minister in charge of Brexit is in no way not an extreme Brexiter. Even Alec Salmond made the point on that special question time David Davis was the acceptable face of Brexit.


Last edited by eldanielfire on Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:06 pm 
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theo wrote:
Latest poll of polls has LD's over UKIP.

Spoiler: show
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They are surging :shock:


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:06 pm 
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But But Tories are the nasty party, they want a hard Brexit, apocalypse, etc.


Last edited by TranceNRG on Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:08 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
theo wrote:
Latest poll of polls has LD's over UKIP.

Spoiler: show
Image


They are surging :shock:


:nod: Big surge..

According to that graph, only Conservatives are surging in popularity which is extraordinary considering their lead.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:09 pm 
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TranceNRG wrote:
But But Tories are the pasty, they want hard Brexit, apocalypse, etc.


Just reminded me of this Boris classic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QplCetQYYKw


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:19 pm 
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Corbyn could take some inspiration from the French, Melenchon appears to have got a bunch of children to make this for him:

http://fiscalkombat.fr/


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:34 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
There isn't a chance of them winning 50/60 seats in any sane analysis.

The "wot" is about the stuff you put about how they are not gained votes but are unambigious election result winners. In the actual By-elections they have made one gain from a candidate who disgraced himself in a election they are always possible winners. elsewhere their increased votes have frequently been around a 1000 votes and that would win they only 3 of their target seats. Even their post Brexit peaks have been far below where they were though the 90's and 2000's. How on earth are you claiming they ahve a chance of reaching 50/60 seats again?


Yes, if you discount all but one of the elections in which they won since Brexit they haven't won many elections


Are you reading what you have posted? You've claimed they have had "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum". they have won fewer By-Elections then both Labour and the Tories since Brexit. How does that show them as clear and unambiguous winners in elections since Brexit?


By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:40 pm 
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You would have to have a heart of stone not to chuckle at this photo

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:52 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:53 pm 
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theo wrote:
Gospel wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
theo wrote:
kagamusha wrote:

The EU have called her bluff, May has found out that the only brexit is a hard brexit which is why she has called an election.

I don't think that is set in stone yet. My sense is that she needs to hold a larger majority to have more wriggle room to negotiate a deal that might be unpalatable to her staunch Brexiteers.


I agree. The two main reasons the serious analysis of why she changed her mind on Brexit have suggested she wants rid of Cameron manifesto as it is trash and embarrassing her domestic agenda. the other reason is that she is for a softer Brexit not a hard one (I've always stated any sensible look at her shows this) but doesn't want to risk opposition and her hard line Brexiters trying to down one. It's apparently what David Davis (another soft Brexiter) has been privately telling her since she was elected leader.

Given she's committed the UK to leaving the single market as a member, the customs union and the ECJ I'm not entirely sure where the soft bit is in all that. If anything I'd say she's hoping to gain enough seats so that she's not held hostage by tory remainers and the opposition. :?


Yes, under the current arrangements. The new arrangement may well see more of the same. She knows she is staring down an economic barrel if she f**k this up. Easier to get a transition period by moving out the next general election and then putting it all to the electorate again.

I'd hold fire until the Tory manifesto is issued, and then how they spin it. May refusing to on the leaders beauty pageant is not a good look for a leader, smacks of fear. Whether fear of being caught out, or fear of having to tell the truth I'm not sure.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:54 pm 
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Labour surging to 3 votes out of 97! Corbyn clearly on a roll...


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:55 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


Yes, I did. Thanks for the reminder.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:09 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
You would have to have a heart of stone not to chuckle at this photo

Image

A Blair-bear?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:13 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


Yes, I did. Thanks for the reminder.


And the point was clearly the actual elections have not be clear and unambiguous wins for the Lib Dems have they?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:21 pm 
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Has anyone thought on the Unite leadership election where Len McCluskey has basically (from some reports) suspended his challenger Gerard Coyne from his union job? Plenty of people seem to think it is McCluskey abusing power to an anti-Corbyn candidate. Sounds really dirty that if there isn't another plausible reason.


Last edited by eldanielfire on Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:22 pm 
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May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:22 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Saint wrote:
[If she can get to 80+ seats then she can soften the deal significantly and still get it through parliament even with the opposition voting against it. The EU are in favour of this because they understand that negotaiations are far more likely to be fruitful as there will be some room to actually negotiate

To reiterate, May's committed to the UK leaving the single market membership, the customs union and the ECJ. Perhaps you can pin the tail on the donkey for me and explain where she's going to be able to soften her stance? I'm not seeing a lot of wiggle room here unless we're talking about the money as the EU aren't for turning on freedom of movement.


I don't know why this is so difficult to understand.

May is currently between a rock and a hard place. In the short term she has to keep the Brexit lunatics onside, as with a majority of 12 things could fall apart rather quickly (it wouldn't be restricted to just EU negotiations - the ability of the government to function would be at risk). So she has to stake out an opening negotiating position (just as the EU have) but with the unfortunate aspect that currently the opening position is basically the ONLY position.

With a larger majority, hopefully made up at least in part of a few more sane heads, she can basically tell the lunatic fringe to go and rotate, while the adults get on with their job. The opening position becomes exactly that, an opening position, and the two sides negotiate before coming together on a middle ground that both believe they can work with.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:29 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:32 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


Yes, I did. Thanks for the reminder.


And the point was clearly the actual elections have not be clear and unambiguous wins for the Lib Dems have they?


Yes they have, because again you seem to have missed that Parliamentary by-elections are not the only actual elections to take place since Brexit


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:34 pm 
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Saint wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Saint wrote:
[If she can get to 80+ seats then she can soften the deal significantly and still get it through parliament even with the opposition voting against it. The EU are in favour of this because they understand that negotaiations are far more likely to be fruitful as there will be some room to actually negotiate

To reiterate, May's committed to the UK leaving the single market membership, the customs union and the ECJ. Perhaps you can pin the tail on the donkey for me and explain where she's going to be able to soften her stance? I'm not seeing a lot of wiggle room here unless we're talking about the money as the EU aren't for turning on freedom of movement.


I don't know why this is so difficult to understand.

May is currently between a rock and a hard place. In the short term she has to keep the Brexit lunatics onside, as with a majority of 12 things could fall apart rather quickly (it wouldn't be restricted to just EU negotiations - the ability of the government to function would be at risk). So she has to stake out an opening negotiating position (just as the EU have) but with the unfortunate aspect that currently the opening position is basically the ONLY position.

With a larger majority, hopefully made up at least in part of a few more sane heads, she can basically tell the lunatic fringe to go and rotate, while the adults get on with their job. The opening position becomes exactly that, an opening position, and the two sides negotiate before coming together on a middle ground that both believe they can work with.

You're still not saying anything tangible. Where do you think she's going to be able to move her red lines? Telling the "lunatic fringe to go and rotate" doesn't actually mean anything unless you give some examples. :?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:38 pm 
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sturginho wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


tbf I'm not a fan of the Mail but I genuinely can't understand what this foreign aid budget is for. it's roughly £12bn on foreign aid when the NHS is posting deficits of £2-3bn a year


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:46 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
sturginho wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


tbf I'm not a fan of the Mail but I genuinely can't understand what this foreign aid budget is for. it's roughly £12bn on foreign aid when the NHS is posting deficits of £2-3bn a year

According to a tweet from Osbourne, it's to make the Tories seem less nasty


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:47 pm 
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I'm assuming all the people wondering what DfID is for are also firmly of the opinion that the British Empire was built in an act of unconscionable evil?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:47 pm 
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sturginho wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
sturginho wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


tbf I'm not a fan of the Mail but I genuinely can't understand what this foreign aid budget is for. it's roughly £12bn on foreign aid when the NHS is posting deficits of £2-3bn a year

According to a tweet from Osbourne, it's to make the Tories seem less nasty


Exactly - it's just a bribe


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:53 pm 
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£12bn is an astonishing amount of money. by comparison HS2 is expected to cost £55bn and HS3 is estimated to cost £10-15bn


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:53 pm 
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They could have reduced the foreign aid to .5% of the budget and freed up some money for NHS.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:54 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


Yes, I did. Thanks for the reminder.


And the point was clearly the actual elections have not be clear and unambiguous wins for the Lib Dems have they?


Yes they have, because again you seem to have missed that Parliamentary by-elections are not the only actual elections to take place since Brexit


It's time to admit you were talking out of your backside Chucky...


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:55 pm 
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Gospel wrote:
Saint wrote:
Gospel wrote:
Saint wrote:
[If she can get to 80+ seats then she can soften the deal significantly and still get it through parliament even with the opposition voting against it. The EU are in favour of this because they understand that negotaiations are far more likely to be fruitful as there will be some room to actually negotiate

To reiterate, May's committed to the UK leaving the single market membership, the customs union and the ECJ. Perhaps you can pin the tail on the donkey for me and explain where she's going to be able to soften her stance? I'm not seeing a lot of wiggle room here unless we're talking about the money as the EU aren't for turning on freedom of movement.


I don't know why this is so difficult to understand.

May is currently between a rock and a hard place. In the short term she has to keep the Brexit lunatics onside, as with a majority of 12 things could fall apart rather quickly (it wouldn't be restricted to just EU negotiations - the ability of the government to function would be at risk). So she has to stake out an opening negotiating position (just as the EU have) but with the unfortunate aspect that currently the opening position is basically the ONLY position.

With a larger majority, hopefully made up at least in part of a few more sane heads, she can basically tell the lunatic fringe to go and rotate, while the adults get on with their job. The opening position becomes exactly that, an opening position, and the two sides negotiate before coming together on a middle ground that both believe they can work with.

You're still not saying anything tangible. Where do you think she's going to be able to move her red lines? Telling the "lunatic fringe to go and rotate" doesn't actually mean anything unless you give some examples. :?


Any and all of them are potentially moveable (with the possible exception of the ECJ - unless you are inside the EU then there is no reason for you to either want or need to be bound by ECJ rulings). That's the whole point of negotiation - you want to present the all as completely immovable in order to extract the maximum possible benefit from the other side.

I suspect that free movement of people is very much moveable, under a free movement of labour guise, likely in return for some sort of free trade agreement; whether customs union, zero tariff single market access or something. At a guess there will be some sort of fee/contribution paid to the EU, that will be lower than we have at the moment, but greater than a big fat zero.

The trouble is that absolutely none of these are achievable right now - they are anathema to the hard Brexiteers in her own party, and aren't even close to the cuckoo-land requirements that the opposition parties have laid down as pre-requisites for them to support the final agreement.

Now then the question comes down to exactly what will be negotiated and what will the final deal look like. That's the big unknowable at the moment, unless you're on the inside of the negotiating team. A basic tenet of negotiation is that you never let the other side know what you would be happy to accept as your final position, because all they will do is take you right to that point and then try to extract their pound of flesh beyond that. This is one of many reasons why all the noise about debating every position in the HoC has been completely pointless - in order to extract the best possible result, the last thing you want to do is debate your negotiating position publically.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:59 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:

By-elections are not the only elections to take place since Brexit


You said "but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".


Yes, I did. Thanks for the reminder.


And the point was clearly the actual elections have not be clear and unambiguous wins for the Lib Dems have they?


Yes they have, because again you seem to have missed that Parliamentary by-elections are not the only actual elections to take place since Brexit


"but in actual election results they have been the clear and unambiguous winners since the EU referendum".

You say unambiguous winners but they have scored worse then their two main rivals in By-elections which would be the elections of most importance and are significant enough to influence a statement like "unambiguous winners since the EU referendum". maybe you should actually refute the evidence I referred to or actually present this evidence that shows the Lib Dems have been unambiguous winners. Because I'm not seeing it from these lists of UK elections held in this year and last. In fact i see so little Lib Dem success I didn't even need to check which ones would have been held post Brexit in 2016:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ions,_2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... ions,_2017


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:01 pm 
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"They have scored worse than their rivals"

*Posts link showing Lib Dems outperforming every other party*


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:02 pm 
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39671363

Giles Brandreth take on the week :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:04 pm 
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eldanielfire wrote:
theo wrote:
Latest poll of polls has LD's over UKIP.

Spoiler: show
Image


They are surging :shock:


The anti-Tory vote seriously need a coalition this election or hope for heavy tactical voting.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:05 pm 
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:07 pm 
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Mullet 2 wrote:
Image


Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:08 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
sturginho wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


tbf I'm not a fan of the Mail but I genuinely can't understand what this foreign aid budget is for. it's roughly £12bn on foreign aid when the NHS is posting deficits of £2-3bn a year


So the UK can keep its UN Security Council seat by painting itself as a more important player on the world scene?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:09 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
"They have scored worse than their rivals"

*Posts link showing Lib Dems outperforming every other party*


Where?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:10 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


am I missing something or is 149 + 83 = 232?


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:11 pm 
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Flyin Ryan wrote:
openclashXX wrote:
sturginho wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:
May is keeping the 0.7% international aid pledge.

The Mail must be fuming?


tbf I'm not a fan of the Mail but I genuinely can't understand what this foreign aid budget is for. it's roughly £12bn on foreign aid when the NHS is posting deficits of £2-3bn a year


So the UK can keep its UN Security Council seat by painting itself as a more important player on the world scene?


what's Russia's foreign aid budget? :lol:


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:18 pm 
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openclashXX wrote:
Chuckles1188 wrote:
Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


am I missing something or is 149 + 83 = 232?


Chuckles appears to be all over the place right now :(


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:18 pm 
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Chuckles1188 wrote:
Mullet 2 wrote:
Image


Hard to take that chart seriously when it predicts that an 83 seat loss for Labour would leave them on 149 seats


what else would it leave them on?


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