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Who will be the first new race winner in 2020
Poll ended at Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:31 pm
Albon 35%  35%  [ 16 ]
Gasly 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Giovinazzi 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Grosjean 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Kyvat 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Latifi 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Magnussen 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Norris 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Ocon 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Perez 9%  9%  [ 4 ]
Russell 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Sainz 2%  2%  [ 1 ]
Stroll 9%  9%  [ 4 ]
There will be no new race winner in 2020 43%  43%  [ 20 ]
Total votes : 46
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:31 pm 
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Testing has shown that there may be a bit of a mix up in form going into 2020, particularly with Racing Point, Renault and McLaren showing competitive form, meaning that in a mixed up race they (or others) may steal a victory from the top 3 (and that top 3 may be a top 2 to begin with)

Also, Albon is in a Red Bull, so he has a shout as well.

As a result, we could have a new race winner. But - if we do - who will be first?


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:58 pm 
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Albon is the only one who will have a chance in my opinion. I think Red Bull won’t be too far off so in a race where they are strong (Austria, Brazil maybe?) I can see him being in with a shout.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:16 pm 
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If Ferrari have lost their straight line advantage (higher downforce philosophy and/or engine mode changes) I think only Mercedes and Verstappen will win races.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:36 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
If Ferrari have lost their straight line advantage (higher downforce philosophy and/or engine mode changes) I think only Mercedes and Verstappen will win races.

Indeed now certain things have come to light I think Ferrari will be hard pressed to win a race this season, this puts Albon in a better position to win a race also bearing in mind the engine reliability problems we've seen for Mercedes in testing.

I personally think we won't see a new winner but Albon has the best chance with Perez next best in the pink Mercedes.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:30 pm 
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Realistically the only capabale teams with a chance of winning will most likely be Merc, Ferrari and Red Bull. So that just leaves Albon. I can't see him getting a win this season though.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:01 pm 
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As has been said, Albon's the only one with a realistic chance. But even if Red Bull are there or thereabouts with Mercedes, he would need a) a track that suits Red Bull more than Mercedes to help compensate for the fact that he'll be half a second down on Hamilton and b) Max Verstappen to DNF. But it could happen.

Can't see anyone else winning a race. The most optimistic analysis seems to suggest the midfield is still at least a second off Mercedes, and realistically it's going to be more than that. Even the most mixed up races of the hybrid era haven't given us a winner from outside Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari and I don't see that changing this year.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:07 am 
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Hahahaha, good one


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:08 am 
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In 2014 and 2016 Mercedes should have won every race if the races had been won purely on form, however 5 / 40 races had unexpected results:

Engine problems in Canada '14, Changeable conditions in Hungary '14, Rosberg/Hamilton colliding Belgium '14, Rosberg/Hamilton colliding in Spain '16 and Hamilton engine / Rosberg lap 1 incident in Malaysia '16

It therefore stands to reason that 3 races this season are likely to not follow the form. Yes, if form is followed we can pretty much guarantee that there won't be a new race winner this season - but the question is whether teams like Racing Point in their pink W10, are now close enough to claim the prize for the 12% of races where the form leaders falter.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:54 am 
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Rosberg and Hamilton racing each other caused a bunch of problems which isn't the case now

When Mercedes have an off day, Red Bull (verstappen) and Ferrari also have to have a bad day at the same time for anyone else to have a chance.

People get all romantic but merc, ferrari, red bull could start last and they'd still finish ahead of anyone outside of the big 3 teams.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:59 am 
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Zazu wrote:
Rosberg and Hamilton racing each other caused a bunch of problems which isn't the case now

When Mercedes have an off day, Red Bull (verstappen) and Ferrari also have to have a bad day at the same time for anyone else to have a chance.

People get all romantic but merc, ferrari, red bull could start last and they'd still finish ahead of anyone outside of the big 3 teams.

Unless it's being driven by Gasly.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:04 pm 
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No one. Racing Point won't be as quick as people are dreaming, and Albon would need literally the entire rest of the top three to DNF for him to win.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:43 am 
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Agree with Exediron, no new winners.
Many of even the previous winners will fail to win I fear.

The previous winners are (and correct me if I'm forgetting someone):
- Hamilton
- Bottas
- Vettel
- Leclerc
- Verstappen
- Ricciardo
- Kimi

The only "sure" bets I'd say are Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen, so that's 3/7.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:18 am 
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I voted for Perez, purely hoping!


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:54 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
I voted for Perez, purely hoping!


I voted Sainz Jr. for the same reason.

Would love to see a McLaren return to form even if it's only sneaking in for a victory amidst significant retirements and mayhem.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:54 am 
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As per the article below, this is the consensus reached the 2 tests completed.

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Source - Imgur

https://www.gpblog.com/en/news/55896/pre-season-data-mercedes-three-tenths-quicker-than-red-bull-.html

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:31 am 
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We've not had a winner from outside Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari since 2013 so it's probably Albon or bust. Never have we had a period of such stagnation.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:44 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
We've not had a winner from outside Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari since 2013 so it's probably Albon or bust. Never have we had a period of such stagnation.



Without the help of a safety car, I think you have to go back to 2015 for a non big 3 team even getting on the podium.

Even with safety cars and wet weather must be 95%+ podium occupancy during the hybrid era


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:22 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
We've not had a winner from outside Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari since 2013 so it's probably Albon or bust. Never have we had a period of such stagnation.



Without the help of a safety car, I think you have to go back to 2015 for a non big 3 team even getting on the podium.

Even with safety cars and wet weather must be 95%+ podium occupancy during the hybrid era

Perez’s podium at Baku 2016 was definitely on merit. He was the fastest non-Mercedes driver that weekend. He probably could have finished 2nd place if not for the grid penalty.

But yes, everything since then has been depressing.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:54 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
Zazu wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
We've not had a winner from outside Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari since 2013 so it's probably Albon or bust. Never have we had a period of such stagnation.



Without the help of a safety car, I think you have to go back to 2015 for a non big 3 team even getting on the podium.

Even with safety cars and wet weather must be 95%+ podium occupancy during the hybrid era

Perez’s podium at Baku 2016 was definitely on merit. He was the fastest non-Mercedes driver that weekend. He probably could have finished 2nd place if not for the grid penalty.

But yes, everything since then has been depressing.


The race before that was Canada, and Bottas also got a podium there. He only pitted once, and it wasn't during the VSC when Button had an issue, so that wasn't what changed the outcome of the race for Bottas. He started in 7th and outraced both Red Bulls and Raikonnen. Some may say he got a podium because Rosberg messed up that race, but then it was effectively Hamilton crashing in qualifying in Baku that resulted in Perez getting his podium.

I'd say both were as impressive in the race. 2 races in a row with a driver from outside the top 3 teams. Pretty rare.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:32 am 
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Most likely is nobody, barring a heavily mixed-up result. Maybe Albon, but I'm guessing not.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:08 am 
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:07 pm 
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Probably Albon. But no new race winners in 2020 is very likely.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:22 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
If Ferrari have lost their straight line advantage (higher downforce philosophy and/or engine mode changes) I think only Mercedes and Verstappen will win races.

Something in my gut is telling me don't sleep on Albon this season. He might make life difficult for Verstappen this year and if so I look forward to it. Having said that, I think if Racing Point (gosh what a terrible name) have gotten their clone just right and they have a serious chance of challenging for wins, I'd say Perez and he's who I picked to be the next new winner in 2020.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:07 am 
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I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:19 am 
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Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.


Do you think we may see a full season of Merc wins? As annoying as it would be, it would also be very special


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:29 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.


Do you think we may see a full season of Merc wins? As annoying as it would be, it would also be very special


Very difficult to achieve with the current proclivity of the safety car.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:50 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.


Do you think we may see a full season of Merc wins? As annoying as it would be, it would also be very special


Very difficult to achieve with the current proclivity of the safety car.

Yes extremely unlikely, but anything can happen. They'd need to have luck on their side for the entire season.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:42 am 
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Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:50 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.


It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:03 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.


It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:10 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.


It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:15 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Covalent wrote:
I think Mercedes will have the pace to win every race this season, so only if both drivers cock up will someone else win, but as I said it won't be a new winner.

Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.


It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:08 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Maybe, maybe not, but that being the case any cock ups that Mercedes make, and there was a few last season, tends not to come from the drivers themselves.


It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:06 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:28 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?

mikeyg123 initially replied saying it can be either, seems that you are making things up here:

Quote:
It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:37 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?

mikeyg123 initially replied saying it can be either, seems that you are making things up here:

Quote:
It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

I was making up that the bigger issue is with team errors and initially myself replying to a post that said that only driver errors would cost Mercedes wins?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:43 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?

mikeyg123 initially replied saying it can be either, seems that you are making things up here:

Quote:
It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

I was making up that the bigger issue is with team errors and initially myself replying to a post that said that only driver errors would cost Mercedes wins?

But that's not what you said that mikey wrote. Anyway, forget it, it just confuses things


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:30 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?

mikeyg123 initially replied saying it can be either, seems that you are making things up here:

Quote:
It can be either. Driver error cost them a win in Germany for example.

I was making up that the bigger issue is with team errors and initially myself replying to a post that said that only driver errors would cost Mercedes wins?

But that's not what you said that mikey wrote. Anyway, forget it, it just confuses things

Yeah things can easily get confused, after watching the mistakes of the Mercedes strategy team last season I just had to respond to the notion that the weak link in stopping Mercedes from winning all the races if they had a dominant car would be the drivers.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:09 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The team error came first, pitting Hamilton for dry tyres whilst other cars were being pitted for wet tyres because it happened to be raining, I believe Hamilton even questioned the decision at the time.


Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?


I said it could be either.

As seen last season errors from the team and the drivers both cost wins.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:44 pm 
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Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 33926
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Hamilton blames himself. That much is clear.

Still the team error came first which left him on the wrong tyres, but if you want to believe that the bigger issue with winning all the races would be driver error then fair enough.

For the record the strategy team also blamed themselves for the blunder.


Yes, the biggest issue was that the driver crashed the car. That's pretty obvious. Even the driver thinks he's to blame.

Still you initially replied to me saying the biggest issue to Mercedes winning all the races was the strategy team and not the drivers themselves, and bringing up an isolated incident which in itself was triggered by a bad strategy call disproves that?


I said it could be either.

As seen last season errors from the team and the drivers both cost wins.

In your opinion whilst the Mercedes strategists made fun of themselves by showing their road cars in the car park whilst it was raining and saying it looks like dry tyres, and let's not include an even worse error they made later in the German GP.

When it comes down to Mercedes losing wins driver error would lag a fair bit behind strategy errors and let's not forget the post I replied to that highlighted driver error.

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