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Which driver will win the Red Bull TMW vote in 2020?
Poll ended at Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:31 pm
Max Verstappen 95%  95%  [ 18 ]
Alex Albon 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 19
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:31 pm 
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Into the 'big three' teams we go, the first of which saw a surprisingly competitive TMW vote over the last nine races of the season. While it was only a truncated TMW battle after Red Bull's mid-season driver switch, Alex Albon actually sat on the cusp of surprise result right up until the final race in Abu Dhabi, at which point Max completed his comeback to take it 5-4. Is that a preview of a what's to come this year or was it just a false dawn?

It isn't that long ago that the Red Bull TMW battle was, well, hilariously lopsided. After twelve races, Max Verstappen had a 12-0 lead over Pierre Gasly and had already won the TMW for the season. It was then that Red Bull made the decision to switch drivers, one which seemed to benefit both their teams for the second half of the season. Pierre Gasly scored his maiden F1 podium while Alex Albon's performances at the senior team were heralded as a step forward from his predecessor. However, it could be argued that Albon's results were benefitted by Max going through his worst run of the season. A first lap exit in Belgium was followed by first lap contact in Italy as he attempted to recover from starting 19th, and then in Japan he had more early contact, this time with Charles Leclerc. Even in Mexico there was more contact, first with Hamilton and then Bottas. While it's hard to argue that Albon's performances weren't an improvement on what Pierre Gasly had been able to achieve, would the TMW scores have been so close if Max had enjoyed problem-free races? And over (potentially, because you never know with Red Bull!) a full season, is the gap in performance between the two going to become more and more apparent, or does Alex Albon have the talent to at least keep Max honest in what will only be his second F1 season?

There is also the point of how quick Red Bull are in 2020. If they do make enough of a step forward to get Max into the WDC mix, will he be given #1 driver status and would that dictate that Alex has to support Max's title bid irrespective of how he might be performing in relation to his more experienced teammate?

2019 TMW Result
Max Verstappen over Alex Albon (5-4, 54%)
(No pre-season prediction for this one)

2020 Prediction Results
McLaren: Lando Norris 75% - 25% Carlos Sainz
Renault: Daniel Ricciardo 82% - 18% Esteban Ocon
AlphaTauri: Pierre Gasly 82% - 18% Daniil Kvyat
Racing Point: Sergio Perez 88% - 13% Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen 86% - 14% Antonio Giovinazzi
Haas: Kevin Magnussen 71% - 29% Romain Grosjean
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi

For the first time, we have decided to break from the trend of backing last year's TMW winners to win again this year. 75% of us feel that Lando Norris will build on his promising rookie year to win the 2020 TMW vote against Carlos Sainz.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:27 pm 
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No contest: Max.

One of the most baffling things about last season for me is why so many people seemed to feel Albon was doing a great job in the Red Bull; he got Rookie of the Year (undeservedly so, in my opinion) and the general consensus seemed to be that he was performing at a level far above Gasly.

I don't agree. For me, Albon is notably superior to Gasly in one area -- racecraft. Ignoring the fluke result that was Japan, his pace differential to Max hovered between about 4-6 tenths, and if anything he was slower in race pace than qualifying. In the last race of the season, he finished almost a minute down on Max on pace alone. He's got a lot of improving to do in 2020 if he's going to justify keeping that seat.

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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:07 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
No contest: Max.

One of the most baffling things about last season for me is why so many people seemed to feel Albon was doing a great job in the Red Bull; he got Rookie of the Year (undeservedly so, in my opinion) and the general consensus seemed to be that he was performing at a level far above Gasly.

I don't agree. For me, Albon is notably superior to Gasly in one area -- racecraft. Ignoring the fluke result that was Japan, his pace differential to Max hovered between about 4-6 tenths, and if anything he was slower in race pace than qualifying. In the last race of the season, he finished almost a minute down on Max on pace alone. He's got a lot of improving to do in 2020 if he's going to justify keeping that seat.


TBF he was never close to getting lapped though. Albon was nowhere near Verstappen but he was still doing miles better than Gasly. Gasly was often in the midfield and got lapped twice. Albon was always able to beat the midfield.

I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:00 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
TBF he was never close to getting lapped though. Albon was nowhere near Verstappen but he was still doing miles better than Gasly. Gasly was often in the midfield and got lapped twice. Albon was always able to beat the midfield.

I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.

That's fair enough. I'll admit he was better than Gasly, but he still wasn't good.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:24 am 
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Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 7:06 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


Do you mean to keep his seat during this season or for next season?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:04 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


The thing that might play into Albon's hand is that the two possible replacements at Toro Rosso have already been at Red Bull and been dropped. Like you I think we'll see Albon improve but I still expect Verstappen to hammer him. It could depend on whether Red Bull want to look outside of their driver programme.

EDIT: to clarify, I'm talking about 2021. I don't see Albon being dropped mid-season.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:07 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


Do you mean to keep his seat during this season or for next season?

For next season.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:08 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


Do you mean to keep his seat during this season or for next season?

For next season.


I think unless he is a real Gaslyesque disaster he will hold on. Who would replace him?


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:13 pm 
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Agree - Max, no contest. Albon didn't do badly, but Verstappen is something else while Albon is probably a solid driver but not top. I don't think even RBR are expecting him to be close.

Unless he implodes he will probably be at RBR in 2021 as well. If he does I really wouldn't be surprised if RBR gave either Gasly or Kvyat another go at the main team.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:27 pm 
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I think Albon, Kvyat and Gasly are evenly matched. Gasly was just too bad in the first half. Albon target should be to get a podium this year and with in 20secs of Max. I think that will be a good improvement for him

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:20 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


Do you mean to keep his seat during this season or for next season?

For next season.


I think unless he is a real Gaslyesque disaster he will hold on. Who would replace him?

It depends, maybe Gasly has a strong season, if Albon is 4/5 tenths slower than Verstappen then Red Bull have a big problem, he might not be fast enough to offer any kind of support for Verstappen.

That being the case they may give Gasly one last chance in the Red Bull team and maybe hope the likes of Yuri Vips gets himself enough F1 super license points for next season so he can debut for AlphaTauri.

They seem determined to make things work with one of their junior drivers even if it's to their short term detriment.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:46 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Given his inexperience I fully expect Albon to improve this year but it won't be enough to stop him getting whitewashed by Verstappen.

Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.


Do you mean to keep his seat during this season or for next season?

For next season.


I think unless he is a real Gaslyesque disaster he will hold on. Who would replace him?

It depends, maybe Gasly has a strong season, if Albon is 4/5 tenths slower than Verstappen then Red Bull have a big problem, he might not be fast enough to offer any kind of support for Verstappen.

That being the case they may give Gasly one last chance in the Red Bull team and maybe hope the likes of Yuri Vips gets himself enough F1 super license points for next season so he can debut for AlphaTauri.

They seem determined to make things work with one of their junior drivers even if it's to their short term detriment.


I think there is more chance of Markko putting you in the second Red Bull than Gasly.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:36 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think there is more chance of Markko putting you in the second Red Bull than Gasly.

:lol:

Jokes aside, that does raise the question of why Gasly and Kvyat are still in the B team. The purpose of Alpha Tauri is to groom talent for Red Bull - if they're both non-starters for the top seat, why have both? I can see keeping one to benchmark a new talent, but there's no point having two drivers you know aren't good enough.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:48 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think there is more chance of Markko putting you in the second Red Bull than Gasly.

:lol:

Jokes aside, that does raise the question of why Gasly and Kvyat are still in the B team. The purpose of Alpha Tauri is to groom talent for Red Bull - if they're both non-starters for the top seat, why have both? I can see keeping one to benchmark a new talent, but there's no point having two drivers you know aren't good enough.

The Red Bull program has stalled at the junior level so they have little choice given the dogmatic approach of not hiring drivers outside of their junior program.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:16 am 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think there is more chance of Markko putting you in the second Red Bull than Gasly.

:lol:

Jokes aside, that does raise the question of why Gasly and Kvyat are still in the B team. The purpose of Alpha Tauri is to groom talent for Red Bull - if they're both non-starters for the top seat, why have both? I can see keeping one to benchmark a new talent, but there's no point having two drivers you know aren't good enough.


Agreed. As I said above, I do believe Gasly might make a reappearance at RBR. Not in the sense that I consider it a certainty or at least highly probably, but in the sense that it wouldn't really surprise me.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:21 am 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think there is more chance of Markko putting you in the second Red Bull than Gasly.

:lol:

Jokes aside, that does raise the question of why Gasly and Kvyat are still in the B team. The purpose of Alpha Tauri is to groom talent for Red Bull - if they're both non-starters for the top seat, why have both? I can see keeping one to benchmark a new talent, but there's no point having two drivers you know aren't good enough.


I think the simple answer is that there is nobody else. I think if Vips had finished 3rd in F3 and gotten the licence points then he would have taken one of the seats.

Red Bull have shown in hiring Verstappen that they are prepared to go outside of their junior programme but I don't think that they think there is anybody else good enough out there with enough licence points and not already signed up to someone.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:46 pm 
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There are no excuses for Albon now. He''ll have had a full pre season with Red Bull. He simply has to be in Verstappen's ballpark. Not beating him, but getting withing three tenths in qualifying, and being close enough to be used for strategic benefit in the race.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:34 pm 
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Apparently, Red Bull singend Deruvala to its junior rooster. It's becoming a pay driver program ....


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:15 am 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Apparently, Red Bull singend Deruvala to its junior rooster. It's becoming a pay driver program ....

I checked his background last year to find that he won a competition in India sponsored by Force India to find an Indian F1 driver, so maybe a bit unfair?

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:09 am 
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Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Apparently, Red Bull singend Deruvala to its junior rooster. It's becoming a pay driver program ....


Really? He finished third in F3 last season. Not bad considering he doesn't have the 15 years of racing experience that his contemporaries have.

He's one of the best young drivers in Europe that wasn't already signed up to someone and already has half the required licence points. A top 4 in F2 this year and he's a Alpha Tauri in 2021.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:22 am 
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Albon is not good enough for this team and Max will trounce him again. They should have swallowed their pride around their young driver programme and hired Hulkenberg.


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:14 am 
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j man wrote:
Albon is not good enough for this team and Max will trounce him again. They should have swallowed their pride around their young driver programme and hired Hulkenberg.


I don't understand comments like these. It's absolutely commendable that they are doing it this way. It's also a huge benefit to sign drivers into their programme because it basically guarantees any young driver that if they keep doing well, they'll get a seat. The moment they stop doing that is the moment their programme loses its USP (well, near-USP) and they'll find it much harder to sign exceptional talents.

Just think about why Max signed for them and not for Mercedes.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:41 am 
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From last year about this time.

Image
Source: https://advrider.com/f/attachments/scre ... g.1515244/

Well he wasn't the second driver by the end of the year. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:06 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.
pokerman wrote:
Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.
BMWSauber84 wrote:
He simply has to be in Verstappen's ballpark. Not beating him, but getting withing three tenths in qualifying, and being close enough to be used for strategic benefit in the race.

3 tenths is basically the exactly how far away Massa was from Alonso.

If the gap between Verstappen-Albon is as big as the gap between Alonso-Massa was, would you consider that to be a success for Albon?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:04 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.
pokerman wrote:
Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.
BMWSauber84 wrote:
He simply has to be in Verstappen's ballpark. Not beating him, but getting withing three tenths in qualifying, and being close enough to be used for strategic benefit in the race.

3 tenths is basically the exactly how far away Massa was from Alonso.

If the gap between Verstappen-Albon is as big as the gap between Alonso-Massa was, would you consider that to be a success for Albon?

Shock alert, I think Verstappen would rinse Alonso in qualifying.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:17 am 
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pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.
pokerman wrote:
Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.
BMWSauber84 wrote:
He simply has to be in Verstappen's ballpark. Not beating him, but getting withing three tenths in qualifying, and being close enough to be used for strategic benefit in the race.

3 tenths is basically the exactly how far away Massa was from Alonso.

If the gap between Verstappen-Albon is as big as the gap between Alonso-Massa was, would you consider that to be a success for Albon?

Shock alert, I think Verstappen would rinse Alonso in qualifying.

I don’t know if rinse is the right word, but I don’t believe that Alonso would fare any better in qualifying against Verstappen than Ricciardo did in 2017-18.

I also believe that Verstappen is the quickest driver on the current grid.


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:04 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I expect him to be about 3-4 tenths of Max generally.
pokerman wrote:
Of interest will be how close in performance he can get to Verstappen and will that be enough to keep his seat, I think it would have to be at a minimum of 0.3s.
BMWSauber84 wrote:
He simply has to be in Verstappen's ballpark. Not beating him, but getting withing three tenths in qualifying, and being close enough to be used for strategic benefit in the race.

3 tenths is basically the exactly how far away Massa was from Alonso.

If the gap between Verstappen-Albon is as big as the gap between Alonso-Massa was, would you consider that to be a success for Albon?

Shock alert, I think Verstappen would rinse Alonso in qualifying.

I don’t know if rinse is the right word, but I don’t believe that Alonso would fare any better in qualifying against Verstappen than Ricciardo did in 2017-18.

I also believe that Verstappen is the quickest driver on the current grid.

Yeah rinse is perhaps the wrong word because it may suggest a whitewash which is not what I meant, certainly I believe Verstappen would beat Alonso in qualifying, in respect to Ricciardo I think Alonso would do slightly better.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:49 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
I don’t know if rinse is the right word, but I don’t believe that Alonso would fare any better in qualifying against Verstappen than Ricciardo did in 2017-18.

I also believe that Verstappen is the quickest driver on the current grid.

Yeah rinse is perhaps the wrong word because it may suggest a whitewash which is not what I meant, certainly I believe Verstappen would beat Alonso in qualifying, in respect to Ricciardo I think Alonso would do slightly better.

1. Verstappen
2. Hamilton (+0.100s)
3. Alonso (+0.170s)
4. Ricciardo (+0.200s)

something like this?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:34 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
I don’t know if rinse is the right word, but I don’t believe that Alonso would fare any better in qualifying against Verstappen than Ricciardo did in 2017-18.

I also believe that Verstappen is the quickest driver on the current grid.

Yeah rinse is perhaps the wrong word because it may suggest a whitewash which is not what I meant, certainly I believe Verstappen would beat Alonso in qualifying, in respect to Ricciardo I think Alonso would do slightly better.

1. Verstappen
2. Hamilton (+0.100s)
3. Alonso (+0.170s)
4. Ricciardo (+0.200s)

something like this?

Similar with the gaps not quite as wide, bear in mind Verstappen and Ricciardo were recently teammates and I had the gap at 0.17s.

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