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At which race will Lewis clinch his sixth WDC?
Poll ended at Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:44 pm
Russia 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Japan 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Mexico 46%  46%  [ 12 ]
United States 42%  42%  [ 11 ]
Brazil 12%  12%  [ 3 ]
Abu Dhabi 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
He won't win the 2019 WDC 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 26
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:44 pm 
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62 points ahead of Bottas, 69 ahead of Max. Nine races to go. If it wasn't already, it is surely now a case of when, not if, he becomes the second man to win a sixth WDC.

So the question is exactly that: when? FWIW the earliest he can do it is Russia, after which there would be 130 points left, and that would require him to double (and then a bit more) his current lead in the space of four races.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:46 pm 
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Mexico/USA is probably the smart bet. Summer upgrades might muddy the waters but reliability withstanding, he's in a seriously strong position.

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:00 pm 
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Mexico.. as is tradition


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:41 pm 
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Mexico. Just like last year when his closest rival fell to pieces

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:49 pm 
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The WDC is over, Hamilton could DNF the next 3 races and would still likely lead the championship and still be favorite. I think Hamilton will be 75+ points clear at the end of the Mexico GP but not 100+ clear before Mexico. So Mexico.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:59 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
The WDC is over, Hamilton could DNF the next 3 races and would still likely lead the championship and still be favorite. I think Hamilton will be 75+ points clear at the end of the Mexico GP but not 100+ clear before Mexico. So Mexico.

At current average points per race he'll be 87 points ahead going into Japan and 93 ahead coming out of it.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:02 pm 
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I picked USA but that's just because I'll actually be in attendance for that one.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:07 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
I picked USA but that's just because I'll actually be in attendance for that one.

COTA is a cool racetrack to attend. I was there for the MotoGP last year. Got a fabulous view in general admission at the end of the back straight (Turn 12 I think)

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:30 pm 
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mcdo wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I picked USA but that's just because I'll actually be in attendance for that one.

COTA is a cool racetrack to attend. I was there for the MotoGP last year. Got a fabulous view in general admission at the end of the back straight (Turn 12 I think)

Yeah I've been there for both MotoGP and F1. Cool place and it's a fun city to hang out in for the weekend.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:47 pm 
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I've got faith in Red Bull and Max to deliver for many races after the break, so USA.


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:23 pm 
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I think a 75+ lead going into COTA is highly likely so I went with Mexico.

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Last edited by pokerman on Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:42 am 
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Mexico, thus spitefully clinching it right before I attend COTA in person.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:58 pm 
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If Hamilton comes wins in Japan, then only Bottas can take the fight to Mexico.

In Japan:

Leclerc has to score 4 points more points than Hamilton to take it to Mexico.

Verstappen has to score 7 points more than Hamilton to take it to Mexico

If Hamilton is second then only the driver who wins out of these two can join Bottas in taking it to Mexico.


No other drivers are still in contention for the WDC.


If Hamilton outscores Bottas by 5 points over the next two races (and concedes only 29 to Leclerc and 32 to Verstappen) he will be WDC in Mexico.

So the vote for Mexico is looking highly likely, and will tie with 2015 as Hamilton's earliest championship. It is also the earliest he can win it, as the most number of points he can leave USA ahead of Bottas is 99, with 104 on the table.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:26 am 
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It now looks like it will be the USA where Hamilton clinches it. Mercedes expect to struggle a bit in Mexico making it unlikely that Hamilton will get the 14 points over Bottas he needs to clinch it. It also makes it extremely unlikely that Bottas would be able to take a great deal out of that lead were Hamilton to DNF.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:43 am 
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I thought Merc would be better this year in Mexico because they have a good high downforce package. I’d expect Ferrari to struggle with Merc and Red Bull leading the way


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:55 pm 
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BMWSauber84 wrote:
It now looks like it will be the USA where Hamilton clinches it. Mercedes expect to struggle a bit in Mexico making it unlikely that Hamilton will get the 14 points over Bottas he needs to clinch it. It also makes it extremely unlikely that Bottas would be able to take a great deal out of that lead were Hamilton to DNF.

Lewis needs to outscore Bottas by 6 points right?, 78 to play for after Mexico, and he is already 72 ahead.

Edit : wait F1 twitter feed has given extra 8 points to Lewis, that's the confusion.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1183422142014115840?s=19


Last edited by robins13 on Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:57 pm 
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Pest44 wrote:
I thought Merc would be better this year in Mexico because they have a good high downforce package. I’d expect Ferrari to struggle with Merc and Red Bull leading the way

It's not really about downforce. It's a combination of the heat and the thin air at high altitude. You can expect the same cooling issues that hurt Mercedes in Austria.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 6:19 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Pest44 wrote:
I thought Merc would be better this year in Mexico because they have a good high downforce package. I’d expect Ferrari to struggle with Merc and Red Bull leading the way

It's not really about downforce. It's a combination of the heat and the thin air at high altitude. You can expect the same cooling issues that hurt Mercedes in Austria.

But the teams run there max downforce packages because of the high altitude and can still get the really high top speeds. It’s why Merc have struggled in 2017/18 because in those years they didn’t have the greatest high downforce package whereas Red Bull have done well because they’ve generally had the best high downforce package. Now this year with Merc having generally considered best downforce package it might suit them


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:36 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Pest44 wrote:
I thought Merc would be better this year in Mexico because they have a good high downforce package. I’d expect Ferrari to struggle with Merc and Red Bull leading the way

It's not really about downforce. It's a combination of the heat and the thin air at high altitude. You can expect the same cooling issues that hurt Mercedes in Austria.


I believe Mercedes think they have solved those cooling issues post-Austria.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:08 pm 
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...a Mercedes
...style
...controversial circumstances
...spite of Bottas best efforts
...a pair or diamond encrusted Karl Lagerfeld race boots and some LH44 motif satin undercrackers

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:48 pm 
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DOLOMITE wrote:
...a Mercedes
...style
...controversial circumstances
...spite of Bottas best efforts
...a pair or diamond encrusted Karl Lagerfeld race boots and some LH44 motif satin undercrackers

... 2019

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:55 am 
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tootsie323 wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
...a Mercedes
...style
...controversial circumstances
...spite of Bottas best efforts
...a pair or diamond encrusted Karl Lagerfeld race boots and some LH44 motif satin undercrackers

... 2019

...a country

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:56 am 
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DOLOMITE wrote:
...a Mercedes
...style
...controversial circumstances
...spite of Bottas best efforts
...a pair or diamond encrusted Karl Lagerfeld race boots and some LH44 motif satin undercrackers


budgie smugglers?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:47 pm 
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... a galaxy far far away
... drag

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:10 pm 
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Sky are saying he needs 4 points in Austin but doesn’t he need to outscore Bottas by 4? Since he needed to outscore him by 14 today and outscored him by 10.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:13 pm 
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I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:15 pm 
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-K- wrote:
Sky are saying he needs 4 points in Austin but doesn’t he need to outscore Bottas by 4? Since he needed to outscore him by 14 today and outscored him by 10.


No. If Hamilton gets 4 more points this season he's champion. He's 74 points ahead with 78 still on the table.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:16 pm 
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-K- wrote:
Sky are saying he needs 4 points in Austin but doesn’t he need to outscore Bottas by 4? Since he needed to outscore him by 14 today and outscored him by 10.

No. Because there are 78 points available after Mexico and only 52 available after USA.

Another way to think about it is that if you added four points to Hamilton's tally today he could DNF in the remaining three. So those 4 in USA are the 4 he didn't get today.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:42 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.

Which grandstand, out of curiosity? I'll be there as well.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:44 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.

Which grandstand, out of curiosity? I'll be there as well.

Oh yeah? I'll have to check. I'm meeting up with my brother in Austin and he's the one who picked up the tickets. I'll find out though and get back to you.

Where are you gonna be?


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:47 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.

Which grandstand, out of curiosity? I'll be there as well.

Oh yeah? I'll have to check. I'm meeting up with my brother in Austin and he's the one who picked up the tickets. I'll find out though and get back to you.

Where are you gonna be?

Turn one, at the top of the hill.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:50 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.

Which grandstand, out of curiosity? I'll be there as well.

Oh yeah? I'll have to check. I'm meeting up with my brother in Austin and he's the one who picked up the tickets. I'll find out though and get back to you.

Where are you gonna be?

Turn one, at the top of the hill.

Cool. I'll find out. I'd be happy to say hello if we're gonna be close by.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:00 am 
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Lewis leads Valtteri by 74 with three races to go. If Lewis Lewis scores four points in any of the next three races, it's over. (Lewis already has the tie breaker sewn up)

Valtteri needs to outscore Lewis by more than 22 points in Austin to even keep the title chase alive.

At least that is my maths.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:07 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
Lewis leads Valtteri by 74 with three races to go. If Lewis Lewis scores four points in any of the next three races, it's over. (Lewis already has the tie breaker sewn up)

Valtteri needs to outscore Lewis by more than 22 points in Austin to even keep the title chase alive.

At least that is my maths.


So Bottas has to win the race and even with that result Ham has to finish lower than 8th for the championship to stay alive.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:30 pm 
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shoot999 wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
Lewis leads Valtteri by 74 with three races to go. If Lewis Lewis scores four points in any of the next three races, it's over. (Lewis already has the tie breaker sewn up)

Valtteri needs to outscore Lewis by more than 22 points in Austin to even keep the title chase alive.

At least that is my maths.


So Bottas has to win the race and even with that result Ham has to finish lower than 8th for the championship to stay alive.


Lewis, currently has a 74 point lead. There are a maximum of 26 points available in each race. If Lewis leaves Austin with a 52 point lead, it's all over. Like I said, Lewis already has the tie breaker sewn up.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:35 pm 
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Yeah, I mean Lewis needs 4 points or Valtteri drops 4 points and it is done.

Lewis almost certainly has enough points already and could sit out the last three races and be champion.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 1:05 pm 
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Well I was wrong I said Mexico, I missed at by 4 points.

Like as been said Hamilton could probably sit out every race now given that Bottas would then have to win the last 3 races.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:06 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I'm going to the next race so will probably see him take the title. Looking forward to it.

Which grandstand, out of curiosity? I'll be there as well.

Oh yeah? I'll have to check. I'm meeting up with my brother in Austin and he's the one who picked up the tickets. I'll find out though and get back to you.

Where are you gonna be?

Turn one, at the top of the hill.

We have general admission so it looks like there will be a few options.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 8:36 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Turn one, at the top of the hill.

We have general admission so it looks like there will be a few options.

I think there's GA up there. It's a pretty good place to see not only the race start, but also bits of all the rest of the track.

I've also heard that the turn 15/16 area is good, but I've never been there (and don't know if there's general admission, for that matter).

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:34 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Turn one, at the top of the hill.

We have general admission so it looks like there will be a few options.

I think there's GA up there. It's a pretty good place to see not only the race start, but also bits of all the rest of the track.

I've also heard that the turn 15/16 area is good, but I've never been there (and don't know if there's general admission, for that matter).

15/16 is where we sat back in 2012. Definitely a good spot. I'll have my phone so if we're in your neck of the woods I'll reach out through the forum. Definitely looking forward to this weekend!


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