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Which records will Hamilton break?
Poll ended at Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:54 pm
World Titles 10%  10%  [ 14 ]
Race Wins 16%  16%  [ 22 ]
Fastest Laps 4%  4%  [ 6 ]
Podiums 17%  17%  [ 24 ]
Laps Led 7%  7%  [ 10 ]
KMs Led 6%  6%  [ 9 ]
Hat Tricks 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Wins/Podiums in Consecutive Years 10%  10%  [ 14 ]
Wins at an Individual Grand Prix/Circuit 11%  11%  [ 16 ]
Consecutive Podiums 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Consecutive Wins 4%  4%  [ 6 ]
Consecutive Poles 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Grand Slams 4%  4%  [ 5 ]
Total votes : 141
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:54 pm 
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A few years ago, a lot of Michael Schumacher's records looked like they would be varying levels of difficult for anyone to ever get near. However, multiple years of Mercedes/Hamilton dominance have changed that and left Lewis Hamilton in a position where he is closing in on a lot of those records.

World Titles: Schumacher 7; Hamilton 4
Race Wins: Schumacher 91; Hamilton 71
Fastest Laps: Schumacher 77; Hamilton 40
Podiums: Schumacher 155; Hamilton 131
Laps Led: Schumacher 5111; Hamilton 3883
KMs Led: Schumacher 24148; Hamilton 19746
Hat Tricks: Schumacher 22; Hamilton 14 (A Hat Trick is taking pole, posting the fastest lap and winning the race)
Wins/Podiums in Consecutive Years: Schumacher 15; Hamilton 12
Wins at an individual Grand Prix/Circuit: Schumacher 8 (at France/Magny-Cours); Hamilton 6 (Canada/Montreal and Hungary/Hungaroring)
Consecutive Podiums: Schumacher 19; Hamilton is currently on 8 (his best run was 16

And a couple of other records Schumacher doesn't hold:

Consecutive Wins: Vettel 9; Hamilton is currently on 4 (he's never won more than five races in a row)
Consecutive Poles: Senna 8; Hamilton's best is 7
Grand Slams: Clark 8; Hamilton 5 (would've been six had Seb not taken the fastest lap from him on Sunday).

There are possibly some others, definitely some more obscure ones, but these are most of the main ones. So my question is, which of these do we think Lewis might break before the end of his F1 career?

(Also, am I the only one a little shocked that Lewis has never won more than five races in a row? Rosberg managed seven in a row spread across two seasons, for example. Seems bizarre to think that Lewis has won more races than anyone not named Michael Schumacher but has never had a run of more than five consecutive wins!)

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:09 pm 
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The most likely to go is Podiums. Hamilton should have at least another 45 races and is 24 behind in that.

If 2019/2020 continues as 2017/2018 has gone, then wins is going to be very close.

The consecutive ones I feel are harder to break in this era of engine penalties and VSC’s flipping races. Schumacher set a lot of those when his car didn’t break down for 5 years.

Then we have the post 2020 rule mix up so who knows. I have a feeling, Mercedes will continue to invest very heavily until Hamilton breaks/equals the two big records - wins and championships. Then maybe they leave the sport or revert back to just an engine supplier.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:13 pm 
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Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:55 pm 
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Many of these records are Wikipedia footnotes
The main one is clearly the number of WDC and race wins. - Race wins is probably more likely .

WDC is possible but I guess luck will play a part.
Blown engines and a Gravel Trap in the pits ! are both things that have cost Lewis an extra 2 WDCs and nobody can foresee or anticipate things like that.
Who could see Rosberg winning a WDC in 2016 ?

It’s quite possible Lewis could retire with 7 WDCs then people will debate from then until the end of eternity over who is better Michael or him


Nobody knows what the dominant team/s will be from 2021.If Lewis isn’t in a competitive seat with the chance of winning a WDC he will be off

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:00 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:23 pm 
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Not wanting to start an argument but in my opinion, as a Lewis Hamilton fan, however many World Titles he ends up winning before he retires, he will always be at least one or two titles short of where he should be due to various circumstances.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm 
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owenmahamilton wrote:
Not wanting to start an argument but in my opinion, as a Lewis Hamilton fan, however many World Titles he ends up winning before he retires, he will always be at least one or two titles short of where he should be due to various circumstances.


That applies to quite a number of drivers. I think Alonso was just 12 points shy of being a 5 x WDC.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:15 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


Now I agree that Ocon wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton but to say he isn't even a threat to Perez is a bit much.

There's four points between them in the championship and Ocon has outqualified Perez 13 times this season with an average gap of 0.467*. When both finish Ocon leads 9-4.

*https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season/2018-f1-statistics/2018-f1-qualifying-data/


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:42 pm 
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shoot999 wrote:
owenmahamilton wrote:
Not wanting to start an argument but in my opinion, as a Lewis Hamilton fan, however many World Titles he ends up winning before he retires, he will always be at least one or two titles short of where he should be due to various circumstances.


That applies to quite a number of drivers. I think Alonso was just 12 points shy of being a 5 x WDC.

All of the greats have a number of titles that "should have been". Alonso will certainly look at 2007 and 2010 that way. Schumacher will look at 99' as a year where a broken leg cost him the championship and will also look at 97' and 06' as years where it was doable. Senna will see 89' and, to some extent, 85-86 as years where he could have had it if not for reliability. And yes, Lewis will look back at years like 07', 10' and 16' as years where he could have been WDC but it didn't quite come together. It happens to them all.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:08 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
shoot999 wrote:
owenmahamilton wrote:
Not wanting to start an argument but in my opinion, as a Lewis Hamilton fan, however many World Titles he ends up winning before he retires, he will always be at least one or two titles short of where he should be due to various circumstances.


That applies to quite a number of drivers. I think Alonso was just 12 points shy of being a 5 x WDC.

All of the greats have a number of titles that "should have been". Alonso will certainly look at 2007 and 2010 that way. Schumacher will look at 99' as a year where a broken leg cost him the championship and will also look at 97' and 06' as years where it was doable. Senna will see 89' and, to some extent, 85-86 as years where he could have had it if not for reliability. And yes, Lewis will look back at years like 07', 10' and 16' as years where he could have been WDC but it didn't quite come together. It happens to them all.



Hamilton could have easily had 2 WDCs through 2007-2008...

...but he could have easily had 0 too!

Sport is a funny thing.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:10 pm 
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Yeah agreed
Many people say Lewis should have won 2007 and maybe lost 2008 - yet roles were reversed

Massa had an engine failure on the last few laps of Hungary in 2008 which would have made a huge difference to the outcome.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:16 pm 
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Invade wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
shoot999 wrote:
owenmahamilton wrote:
Not wanting to start an argument but in my opinion, as a Lewis Hamilton fan, however many World Titles he ends up winning before he retires, he will always be at least one or two titles short of where he should be due to various circumstances.


That applies to quite a number of drivers. I think Alonso was just 12 points shy of being a 5 x WDC.

All of the greats have a number of titles that "should have been". Alonso will certainly look at 2007 and 2010 that way. Schumacher will look at 99' as a year where a broken leg cost him the championship and will also look at 97' and 06' as years where it was doable. Senna will see 89' and, to some extent, 85-86 as years where he could have had it if not for reliability. And yes, Lewis will look back at years like 07', 10' and 16' as years where he could have been WDC but it didn't quite come together. It happens to them all.



Hamilton could have easily had 2 WDCs through 2007-2008...

...but he could have easily had 0 too!

Sport is a funny thing.

Exactly. If Damon Hill had not been hit by Schumacher in Adelaide 1994, not made mistakes in 1995, stayed at Williams for 1997, moved to McLaren for 1998 and then built a time machine and been number one driver at Mercedes from 2014 to 2016 then he would be a 8x WDC and Schumacher only a 5x WDC.

The thread is about the records he will actually achieve, not about arguing what records he deserves.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:21 pm 
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Think Hamiton also holds the records for most wins at different circuits and GPs, and also most pole positions at different circuits and GPs.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:39 pm 
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So to answer my own thread:

I think he'll have his seventh WDC by the end of 2020. With that will come wins (I think he wins at least two of the remaining four races, and 19 more victories in two seasons is very, very doable) and definitely podiums.

The big question for me would be whether he continues beyond 2020. If he does then an eighth WDC is a possibility and if he gets that, stuff like laps led (he might even sneak to that before the end of 2020 if Mercedes are dominant) and KMs led would be a certainty. He'd equal the consecutive seasons with a podium/win records then, too, and stand a good chance at bettering Schumi's total of 8 wins at an individual grand prix/circuit.

I don't see him getting fastest laps, simply because it's quite rare for a driver to get more than eight in a year these days. That might also prevent him getting the hat trick and grand slam records, too. And the consecutive ones would probably depend on Mercedes being dominant and Hamilton having an even bigger advantage over his teammate than he does over Bottas, because Bottas has shown that he can take the odd pole or win the odd race.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:16 pm 
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shoot999 wrote:
Think Hamiton also holds the records for most wins at different circuits and GPs, and also most pole positions at different circuits and GPs.


The only track I can think LH hasn't won at (with multiple attempts) is India. I can't the of any other track he hasn't won at least once.
Does anyone know of a track that Schumacher never won at even with multiple attempts?


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:31 pm 
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cmberry20 wrote:
shoot999 wrote:
Think Hamiton also holds the records for most wins at different circuits and GPs, and also most pole positions at different circuits and GPs.


The only track I can think LH hasn't won at (with multiple attempts) is India. I can't the of any other track he hasn't won at least once.
Does anyone know of a track that Schumacher never won at even with multiple attempts?


I assume we're talking in his 'first' career because there is a few following his comeback: Singapore, Valencia, India and Korea.

For Hamilton: valencia and Korea also.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:12 pm 
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All the drivers high up in the WDC count could have won more titles...

Schumacher: 97,98,06 were all lost in the final race and 99 would have been his easily without the leg break.
Senna: 89 would have easily been his without such reliability.
Prost: 81,82, 83,84 could all have been his with a little more luck.
Hamilton: 07 and 16.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:46 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


Now I agree that Ocon wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton but to say he isn't even a threat to Perez is a bit much.

There's four points between them in the championship and Ocon has outqualified Perez 13 times this season with an average gap of 0.467*. When both finish Ocon leads 9-4.

*https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season/2018-f1-statistics/2018-f1-qualifying-data/

Does anyone here believe that Ocon is nearly half a second quicker than Perez?

My own figures have Ocon 0.01s quicker, which looks more plausible?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:04 am 
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pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


Now I agree that Ocon wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton but to say he isn't even a threat to Perez is a bit much.

There's four points between them in the championship and Ocon has outqualified Perez 13 times this season with an average gap of 0.467*. When both finish Ocon leads 9-4.

*https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season/2018-f1-statistics/2018-f1-qualifying-data/

Does anyone here believe that Ocon is nearly half a second quicker than Perez?

My own figures have Ocon 0.01s quicker, which looks more plausible?


Yes it does - i've just calculated it myself using the fastest times of the last session both competed in (same as racefans.net) and got Ocon 0.04s quicker. I've just noticed that to get that figure I think they have used Japan Q3 times where Ocon was over 7 seconds quicker than Perez which is a pretty stupid figure to use. I used Q2 and it came down to 0.04.

My original point still stands though.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:01 am 
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Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:11 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
cmberry20 wrote:
shoot999 wrote:
Think Hamiton also holds the records for most wins at different circuits and GPs, and also most pole positions at different circuits and GPs.


The only track I can think LH hasn't won at (with multiple attempts) is India. I can't the of any other track he hasn't won at least once.
Does anyone know of a track that Schumacher never won at even with multiple attempts?


I assume we're talking in his 'first' career because there is a few following his comeback: Singapore, Valencia, India and Korea.

For Hamilton: valencia and Korea also.


Thanks for the info. I forgot about Korea - goes to show that made a lasting impression.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:21 pm 
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pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.

I'm not sure I'd call anyone who calls the drivers in slower cars "the monkeys at the back" after only a few months in F1 as starting humble, but the rest I can broadly agree with.

If he breaks Schumacher's record for World Titles, then winning more races will be pretty much a given I think as he only needs to win 7 races per year average ( I think, maths was never my strong point) in each of his title-winning years to do it in, less if those titles are not consecutive. Even easier for podiums so I think it's a given he'll break that. Laps and kms probably, too. The rest not sure about.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:24 pm 
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pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:25 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


Now I agree that Ocon wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton but to say he isn't even a threat to Perez is a bit much.

There's four points between them in the championship and Ocon has outqualified Perez 13 times this season with an average gap of 0.467*. When both finish Ocon leads 9-4.

*https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season/2018-f1-statistics/2018-f1-qualifying-data/

Does anyone here believe that Ocon is nearly half a second quicker than Perez?

My own figures have Ocon 0.01s quicker, which looks more plausible?


Yes it does - i've just calculated it myself using the fastest times of the last session both competed in (same as racefans.net) and got Ocon 0.04s quicker. I've just noticed that to get that figure I think they have used Japan Q3 times where Ocon was over 7 seconds quicker than Perez which is a pretty stupid figure to use. I used Q2 and it came down to 0.04.

My original point still stands though.

Yes your point still stands but would have looked better without using bogus data, I'm not surprised they used 7 seconds in their data as this is what they do, is there not a saying when compiling data that if you put garbage in then you get garbage out?

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:26 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.

Really?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... efore_the/

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 2nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:37 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.

Really?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... efore_the/


We are talking about a career not some Reddit statistics?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:37 pm 
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For me only 3 things count, titles, wins and poles, Hamilton already has the pole record, the titles and wins he can match in the next 2 seasons if he can replicate the last two seasons, that is feasible but maybe not easy?

If he doesn't then at 35 will he carry on through the big rule changes to try and match Schumacher, if he does then he will get the wins record but with the titles record things can sometimes not go your way, 2016.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:39 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.

Really?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... efore_the/


We are talking about a career not some Reddit statistics?

Hamilton has a career of Mercedes dominant cars?

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2013: 5th Place
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2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 2nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:40 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pendulumeffect wrote:
Hamilton will most likely match or pass Schumacher for WDCs and wins in 2-3 years. Nobody is better than him in the grand scheme of things. He does everything a driver needs to do: drives fast, communicates with the engineers, communicates with the fans. He started humble and learned to be ruthless. Part of me doubts we will see somebody like him again, but then again I think it is certain he will inspire someone new like Senna inspired him.


The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.

Really?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... efore_the/


We are talking about a career not some Reddit statistics?

Hamilton has a career of Mercedes dominant cars?


Noone even comes close to that no


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:41 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
JN23 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Wins is looking more and more likely now. He's just 20 away and he might race another 5 years for all we know. At his current pace and with the rules relatively stable for two more seasons, he will likely have that by the end of 2020.

Podiums is almost a sure thing to be done by 2020.

Championships? Might also happen by 2020 but it's a whole lot less certain. He's going to get number 5 this year. That's for sure. The next two years will possibly be his best 2 chances to win more titles. I'd be surprised if Mercedes slipped away from competitiveness prior to the regulations overhaul in 2021. Even after the rules change; would anyone bet against Mercedes to design a winner? I wouldn't.

Lewis has the perfect storm. He's got the right team around him, he is in the peak of his ability and he has a teammate who is not in his league. The last part might change at some point but not with Ocon IMO. I don't see Esteban as a threat to Hamilton at all. The real question might become, how high will the new records be set.


Ocon isn't even a threat to Perez. You can be rest assured he'd be slaughtered by Hamilton. Ocon has to be the most overrated driver on the grid today.


Now I agree that Ocon wouldn't be a huge threat to Hamilton but to say he isn't even a threat to Perez is a bit much.

There's four points between them in the championship and Ocon has outqualified Perez 13 times this season with an average gap of 0.467*. When both finish Ocon leads 9-4.

*https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season/2018-f1-statistics/2018-f1-qualifying-data/

Does anyone here believe that Ocon is nearly half a second quicker than Perez?

My own figures have Ocon 0.01s quicker, which looks more plausible?


Yes it does - i've just calculated it myself using the fastest times of the last session both competed in (same as racefans.net) and got Ocon 0.04s quicker. I've just noticed that to get that figure I think they have used Japan Q3 times where Ocon was over 7 seconds quicker than Perez which is a pretty stupid figure to use. I used Q2 and it came down to 0.04.

My original point still stands though.


Without wanting to completely detract from the thread, Ocon/Perez are very, very closely matched. Ocon struggled on Saturday during the first half of last season and only outqualified Perez once in the first ten races, but since then it has been a lot more even in that regard.

The thing is, I think we have a good idea what Perez is. He's a very good midfield driver, is great on his tyres and sniffs out podiums, with his biggest weakness being he defends too aggressively. However, there isn't a great deal more to come from him. That is his limit, and to a certain extent he's a perfect match for the Force India of old, who with all due respect were never going to become more than the fourth best team. Maybe with Lawrence Stroll's backing they can become more than that together, but otherwise that's kind of as good as it'll ever get for him.

Ocon, on the other hand, still isn't the finished product. The fact that he's already pretty comparable to Perez means that at worst, he's another really good upper-midfield driver. My concerns with him is that a) he's not beating Perez enough to suggest he's going to become more than that and b) he's facing a year out of the sport at a crucial point in his development. In his defence for his performance relative to Perez, he hasn't even done 50 F1 races yet so that could be explained away as an experience thing.

However, saying he's not even a threat to Perez is way, way wide of the mark. If anything the fact that he's been so close to Perez is what has contributed to their numerous on-track issues. If he wasn't a threat to Perez then they wouldn't keep tripping over each other because Sergio would be up the road from him...

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:51 pm 
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Something tells me that Lewis will equal but not beat Schumacher's total of 7 drivers championships. If he wins in 2019 and 2020 that will put him at seven and tied with Michael. At that point his contract with Merc is up. He has talked (and there is much speculation about) going to Ferrari to finish his career. He could also retire or start a long downhill fade as the new regulations take effect and there is a possible re-ordering of formula 1 teams supremacy.


I do think he will beat Michael's total of 91 wins.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:28 pm 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
Without wanting to completely detract from the thread, Ocon/Perez are very, very closely matched. Ocon struggled on Saturday during the first half of last season and only outqualified Perez once in the first ten races, but since then it has been a lot more even in that regard.

The thing is, I think we have a good idea what Perez is. He's a very good midfield driver, is great on his tyres and sniffs out podiums, with his biggest weakness being he defends too aggressively. However, there isn't a great deal more to come from him. That is his limit, and to a certain extent he's a perfect match for the Force India of old, who with all due respect were never going to become more than the fourth best team. Maybe with Lawrence Stroll's backing they can become more than that together, but otherwise that's kind of as good as it'll ever get for him.

Ocon, on the other hand, still isn't the finished product. The fact that he's already pretty comparable to Perez means that at worst, he's another really good upper-midfield driver. My concerns with him is that a) he's not beating Perez enough to suggest he's going to become more than that and b) he's facing a year out of the sport at a crucial point in his development. In his defence for his performance relative to Perez, he hasn't even done 50 F1 races yet so that could be explained away as an experience thing.

However, saying he's not even a threat to Perez is way, way wide of the mark. If anything the fact that he's been so close to Perez is what has contributed to their numerous on-track issues. If he wasn't a threat to Perez then they wouldn't keep tripping over each other because Sergio would be up the road from him...


Good post :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:30 pm 
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With relatively steady regulations for the next 2 seasons it's certainly possible. Do we really expect anyone other than Ferrari to seriously challenge before 2021? Maybe if Honda surprise us all Red Bull will have a shot but that doesn't exactly look likely.

I doubt Hamilton will fail to put the car more or less where it belongs so it ultimately comes down to whether Ferrari can build a better car, Leclerc turns out to be elite level and/or Vettel can get his act together and start performing again.

After 2021 it's anyone's guess what will happen, too many variables.


Last edited by Black_Flag_11 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:30 pm 
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Mort Canard wrote:
Something tells me that Lewis will equal but not beat Schumacher's total of 7 drivers championships. If he wins in 2019 and 2020 that will put him at seven and tied with Michael. At that point his contract with Merc is up. He has talked (and there is much speculation about) going to Ferrari to finish his career. He could also retire or start a long downhill fade as the new regulations take effect and there is a possible re-ordering of formula 1 teams supremacy.


I do think he will beat Michael's total of 91 wins.


I can't see him leaving Merc in 2020 to go to another team if he has just won 4 WDCs on the bounce and 6/7 with them. If he left then it would be for retirement in my opinion.

I could see him wanting to go to Ferrari if he felt Merc weren't the team to win titles with though.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:58 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
AnRs wrote:
The thing is we will never know who have the possibility as long as it only is between the Merc drivers.
We will never know if any off the youngsters now have the capacity as long as they not get a seat in a Merc.

Really?

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... efore_the/


We are talking about a career not some Reddit statistics?

Hamilton has a career of Mercedes dominant cars?


Noone even comes close to that no

No one has had 3 years of a dominant car?

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 2nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:30 pm 
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If Hamilton clinches the title in Austin, he will be the youngest 5x WDC beating Schumacher by 360 days.

If Vettel wins a championship in 2019 or 2020 then he will take the record from Hamilton.

If Hamilton doesn't win next year Schumacher will remain the youngest 6x and 7x WDC even if Hamilton goes on to win that many titles. Vettel has to win 6 by 2021 and 7 by 2022 to become the youngest of those, although if Hamilton wins his 6th next year then Vettel cannot claim any youngest records unless he surpasses Hamilton's count first.


I realised I made an error, Schumacher will remain the youngest by 5 days if Hamilton secures it in Austin as I erroneously used 2003 as Schumacher's 5th WDC, not 2002.

This means that Hamilton cannot take any more "youngest" records unless he becomes the youngest 8x WDC.

Vettel has to become a 5x WDC next year to take it from Schumacher.


Last edited by Alienturnedhuman on Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:35 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
No one has had 3 years of a dominant car?


There have never been a driver who's had so many dominant or title contenders before that's true yes.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:44 pm 
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AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No one has had 3 years of a dominant car?


There have never been a driver who's had so many dominant or title contenders before that's true yes.

No it's not true. It's just nonsense (like most of your contributions).


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:43 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No one has had 3 years of a dominant car?


There have never been a driver who's had so many dominant or title contenders before that's true yes.

No it's not true. It's just nonsense (like most of your contributions).


It really takes one to find one, I really have told you before I don't have high hope discussing anything with you and you keep proving me right.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:49 pm 
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Enough now, any more off topic arguing and I will start getting heavy handed with those involved.


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