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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:22 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:29 am 
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It's a complex and grey area which unfortunately FIA don't always spell out properly in detail to audiences/fans. But when defending you should leave room. You cannot force a driver into the wall or off track. Obviously their positions relative to each other, the part of the track or even straight they're on and other variables come into play. And the rules have been revised over time.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/16416932


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:38 am 
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justmoi wrote:
But when defending you should leave room.
That's not exactly what the rules say. They only describe a particular case when you should leave room.

justmoi wrote:
You cannot force a driver into the wall or off track.
Mr Whiting explained why Alonso was allowed to run a driver off the track at the exit of Francorchamps' virage de Bruxelles hairpin (2016 I believe). While I am still searching which rule this is based on, it is allowed in some cases! 8O As I said, I have no idea what he based this on, but I would love to see him explain it in the same words, if ever a driver is run into a wall in those circumstances.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:31 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
j man wrote:
shay550 wrote:

I still think that block was out of order. No driver should be forced to slam the brakes on halfway down a straight to avoid a crash.

https://www.racefans.net/2018/09/30/vet ... wards-say/

Well, I think it was fair enough. As Vettel may have looked to move twice, but infact he turned right a little, opened the steering a little and then turned in a bit more. It isn't quite the same as defending on one side then lunging to the other. He was right on the limit but it clearly was allowed given they stopped investigating it.

I'd agree that only one move was made. But that alone doesn't make it an acceptable move in my eyes; after all Schumacher only made one move when shoving Barrichello into the wall in Hungary.

In my view blocking should be a deterent at the approach to a corner to force the attacking driver to take an unfavourable line, not a physical obstruction to a much faster car coming past halfway down a straight. If you allow that sort of manoeuvre to become commonplace then we're going to end up with a hideous accident at some point; they may have mandated lower noses on the cars but wheel-to-wheel contact at that speed can still launch a car into the air.

Of course the easy solution to prevent this situation of massive speed differentials on straights is to get rid of DRS and design the cars in such a manner as to allow proper racing.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:20 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:48 pm 
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j man wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
j man wrote:
shay550 wrote:

I still think that block was out of order. No driver should be forced to slam the brakes on halfway down a straight to avoid a crash.

https://www.racefans.net/2018/09/30/vet ... wards-say/

Well, I think it was fair enough. As Vettel may have looked to move twice, but infact he turned right a little, opened the steering a little and then turned in a bit more. It isn't quite the same as defending on one side then lunging to the other. He was right on the limit but it clearly was allowed given they stopped investigating it.

I'd agree that only one move was made. But that alone doesn't make it an acceptable move in my eyes; after all Schumacher only made one move when shoving Barrichello into the wall in Hungary.

In my view blocking should be a deterent at the approach to a corner to force the attacking driver to take an unfavourable line, not a physical obstruction to a much faster car coming past halfway down a straight. If you allow that sort of manoeuvre to become commonplace then we're going to end up with a hideous accident at some point; they may have mandated lower noses on the cars but wheel-to-wheel contact at that speed can still launch a car into the air.

Of course the easy solution to prevent this situation of massive speed differentials on straights is to get rid of DRS and design the cars in such a manner as to allow proper racing.
The difference between the Vettel defence against Hamilton's overtake attempt and that of Schumacher versus Barrichello's is fundamental: Barrichello got alongside. Hamilton was unable to get there before the gap he needed was gone. Add to that the fact that Vettel went to the right before Hamilton (see my earlier post), and it is clear that he was simply too late; Vettel's defence was perfect. But also, he left more than a car's width of space to his left when he moved back towards the racing line! Instead of breaking the rules, this was textbook behaviour. Vettel had the right to do what he did, and he left room. I'm surprised that Hamilton seems to have forgotten this exact situation was demonstrated to him on two occasions over the last few years. He, more than anybody should have known better, because he got it wrong both times.

I don't understand why you speak of a massive speed differential; Hamilton didn't have the speed to try what he wanted to do, or he would have gotten alongside, and Vettel would have had to stop his defensive move. So, while I loathe DRS, this has nothing to do with this incident.

A final point for GiantHogWeed; the stewards didn't stop investigating it, or we wouldn't have had their official report. They investigated it, and concluded Vettel didn't break the rules. Hence no action. I'm all for such consistency!

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Last edited by Fiki on Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:51 pm 
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j man wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
j man wrote:
shay550 wrote:

I still think that block was out of order. No driver should be forced to slam the brakes on halfway down a straight to avoid a crash.

https://www.racefans.net/2018/09/30/vet ... wards-say/

Well, I think it was fair enough. As Vettel may have looked to move twice, but infact he turned right a little, opened the steering a little and then turned in a bit more. It isn't quite the same as defending on one side then lunging to the other. He was right on the limit but it clearly was allowed given they stopped investigating it.

I'd agree that only one move was made. But that alone doesn't make it an acceptable move in my eyes; after all Schumacher only made one move when shoving Barrichello into the wall in Hungary.

In my view blocking should be a deterent at the approach to a corner to force the attacking driver to take an unfavourable line, not a physical obstruction to a much faster car coming past halfway down a straight. If you allow that sort of manoeuvre to become commonplace then we're going to end up with a hideous accident at some point; they may have mandated lower noses on the cars but wheel-to-wheel contact at that speed can still launch a car into the air.

Of course the easy solution to prevent this situation of massive speed differentials on straights is to get rid of DRS and design the cars in such a manner as to allow proper racing.


It is interesting if you look at it frame by frame on the on board though. There is a point after Seb starts moving right just after he crosses the white line when his wheel is actually pointing slightly left then he turns right again. This is the point at which it appears to be two moves, or at least a 2 part move. I'm not sure what the definition of a single move is but I'd say that turning the wheel in the opposite direction to a move you're making would signify the end of one move.

Of course it was never going to be penalised as its not the way things are done these days but that doesn't mean there weren't two moves.

Thank god for F1 drivers' cat like reflexes.


Last edited by TedStriker on Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:00 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

Yeah the idea that it was difficult to overtake in Germany is strange. It's one of the 2 or 3 races where overtaking is most doable. The reason Hamilton wasn't worried about Bottas passing him was that Bottas was slower than him (even with the newer tires). You can't pass a car that is pulling away from you lap after lap.

By contrast, Hamilton was catching Vettel at nearly 2 seconds per lap before Vettel's crash and Vettel was only a few seconds up the road with 20 laps to go. By no means was that win in the bag.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:55 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
j man wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
j man wrote:
shay550 wrote:

I still think that block was out of order. No driver should be forced to slam the brakes on halfway down a straight to avoid a crash.

https://www.racefans.net/2018/09/30/vet ... wards-say/

Well, I think it was fair enough. As Vettel may have looked to move twice, but infact he turned right a little, opened the steering a little and then turned in a bit more. It isn't quite the same as defending on one side then lunging to the other. He was right on the limit but it clearly was allowed given they stopped investigating it.

I'd agree that only one move was made. But that alone doesn't make it an acceptable move in my eyes; after all Schumacher only made one move when shoving Barrichello into the wall in Hungary.

In my view blocking should be a deterent at the approach to a corner to force the attacking driver to take an unfavourable line, not a physical obstruction to a much faster car coming past halfway down a straight. If you allow that sort of manoeuvre to become commonplace then we're going to end up with a hideous accident at some point; they may have mandated lower noses on the cars but wheel-to-wheel contact at that speed can still launch a car into the air.

Of course the easy solution to prevent this situation of massive speed differentials on straights is to get rid of DRS and design the cars in such a manner as to allow proper racing.
The difference between the Vettel defence against Hamilton's overtake attempt and that of Schumacher versus Barrichello's is fundamental: Barrichello got alongside. Hamilton was unable to get there before the gap he needed was gone. Add to that the fact that Vettel went to the right before Hamilton (see my earlier post), and it is clear that he was simply too late; Vettel's defence was perfect. But also, he left more than a car's width of space to his left when he moved back towards the racing line! Instead of breaking the rules, this was textbook behaviour. Vettel had the right to do what he did, and he left room. I'm surprised that Hamilton seems to have forgotten this exact situation was demonstrated to him on two occasions over the last few years. He, more than anybody should have known better, because he got it wrong both times.

I don't understand why you speak of a massive speed differential; Hamilton didn't have the speed to try what he wanted to do, or he would have gotten alongside, and Vettel would have had to stop his defensive move. So, while I loathe DRS, this has nothing to do with this incident.

A final point for GiantHogWeed; the stewards didn't stop investigating it, or we wouldn't have had their official report. They investigated it, and concluded Vettel didn't break the rules. Hence no action. I'm all for such consistency!

A fair argument, but I don't think it should be a simple as the attacking driver having to be alongside before being entitled to space, as the point at which they are committed to the move occurs some time before then. At the point at which Hamilton had decided to pass on the right hand side, and also at the point at which it was too late to switch to the left, the gap was there so Hamilton was entitled to go for it. Therefore Vettel's defensive move was too late.

Does this make defending on a straight almost impossible? Yes it does, and it's why overtaking via DRS feels so contrived because there is very little the defending driver can do about it. I re-iterate that if we start allowing that sort of blocking move against a car breezing past with DRS, we're going to see some horrendous accidents.

Whether by luck or judgement, at least Schumacher left just about a car's width between himself and the wall.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:34 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

Yeah the idea that it was difficult to overtake in Germany is strange. It's one of the 2 or 3 races where overtaking is most doable. The reason Hamilton wasn't worried about Bottas passing him was that Bottas was slower than him (even with the newer tires). You can't pass a car that is pulling away from you lap after lap.

By contrast, Hamilton was catching Vettel at nearly 2 seconds per lap before Vettel's crash and Vettel was only a few seconds up the road with 20 laps to go. By no means was that win in the bag.


Yes. The delta between Hamilton - Bottas was also much smaller. Bottas was 10 laps fresher, same compound. Hamilton was 17 laps fresher and 2 compounds softer Vettel. These two situations are not comparable. Germany was more akin to Ricciardo in China who was 1.2-1.5 a lap quicker when he stormed to 1st.

You needed to be about 0.6-0.8 quicker to pass in Germany.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:43 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

take it up with Hamilton:

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/22/hockenheim-f1-hardest-circuits-overtaking-hamilton/

and after

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/26/hamilton-mercedes-german-gp-team-orders-made-difference-f1/


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:53 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

Yeah the idea that it was difficult to overtake in Germany is strange. It's one of the 2 or 3 races where overtaking is most doable. The reason Hamilton wasn't worried about Bottas passing him was that Bottas was slower than him (even with the newer tires). You can't pass a car that is pulling away from you lap after lap.

By contrast, Hamilton was catching Vettel at nearly 2 seconds per lap before Vettel's crash and Vettel was only a few seconds up the road with 20 laps to go. By no means was that win in the bag.

No true. Hamilton was faster than Vettel for sure but in the previous four laps only one was more than two seconds quicker and the lap prior to Vettel's accident the difference was a mere 0.012s. At that point there were 12 seconds between them with 16 laps to go. Hamilton certainly looked like he was capable of catching Vettel but in the changeable conditions it was by no means certain that he had enough to get by. Vettel had slowed more than Hamilton had so it's pretty much impossible to say how much he had in hand and how much he was taking it easy by.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:18 pm 
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The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.


Last edited by Johnson on Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:21 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

take it up with Hamilton:

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/22/hockenheim-f1-hardest-circuits-overtaking-hamilton/

and after

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/26/hamilton-mercedes-german-gp-team-orders-made-difference-f1/


Pre race comments, just watch the race. He overtook about 9-10 cars. He was right, the triple DRS helped massively.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:01 am 
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Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:52 am 
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Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Indeed this has all been explained before.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:55 am 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

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2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:12 am 
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Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

If you're going to correct me, it might help if you checked your own facts first. Otherwise you just end up looking a little silly. If you remember the previous four laps as having two with a gap larger than 2 seconds, then it's your memory which is poor, not mine

In the 4 laps prior to Vettel crashing, only one was over two seconds. It's interesting that you accuse me of cherry picking while being a bit sloppy with your own facts yourself and seemingly ignoring the completely erroneous claims made by others. But I guess those don't support your own claims so you're more likely to cherry pick the ones which do, and accuracy be damned.

Lap gaps:
1.341
1.382
2.254
0.012

I count four laps there. Maybe your maths is different?

Neither driver was consistent in their laps, as the rain was making the track a little tricky. The gap came down erratically at an average of 1.65s per lap since Vettel's stop, but the lap times of both drivers fluctuated due to traffic and the conditions. Plus we seem to be ignoring the fact that Hamilton still needed to overtake Kimi and Bottas before getting to Vettel, and neither was likely to simply pull over for him. He likely would at least have encountered some delay before getting past either and given that the track was drying out it would have become less and less easy for him.

And after the SC the drivers were going as fast as they had ever been, so there's even less reason to believe that Hamilton would still have maintained the performance advantage he did right until the end. Trying to make out the win was a fait accompli is just wishful thinking and the advantage lay firmly with Vettel.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:14 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

lapping cars doesn't give a consistent time penalty. It all depends on where an overtake takes place and whether you've actually been held up in any corners or not


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:20 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

take it up with Hamilton:

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/22/hockenheim-f1-hardest-circuits-overtaking-hamilton/

and after

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/26/hamilton-mercedes-german-gp-team-orders-made-difference-f1/


Pre race comments, just watch the race. He overtook about 9-10 cars. He was right, the triple DRS helped massively.

One was pre and one was post, as in "and after."

“The fans of course they want to see us keep racing,” he said. “But I had pretty good pace that Sunday and if you look it’s not an easy track to overtake


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:40 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

That's not what I was saying.

The point made was that the lap they put in equal times Hamitlon was held up in traffic while Vettel had clear air. I pointed out that this means Vettel also got held up in traffic on one of the previous laps where Hamilton was quicker, so whether you take that lap as equal or take the time loss off a previous lap the net result is that they put in equal times on one of those laps.

That's important because Hamilton would consistently need 1.5-2 seconds per lap to catch and pass Vettel. If they match each other on 1 lap then Hamilton would then need to lap 3-4 seconds quicker on the next lap to make the difference up. It seems unlikely that Hamilton would have caught Vettel, the gap was slightly too big, if the race were a few laps longer then is starts to look more likely.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:23 am 
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j man wrote:
Fiki wrote:
The difference between the Vettel defence against Hamilton's overtake attempt and that of Schumacher versus Barrichello's is fundamental: Barrichello got alongside. Hamilton was unable to get there before the gap he needed was gone. Add to that the fact that Vettel went to the right before Hamilton (see my earlier post), and it is clear that he was simply too late; Vettel's defence was perfect. But also, he left more than a car's width of space to his left when he moved back towards the racing line! Instead of breaking the rules, this was textbook behaviour. Vettel had the right to do what he did, and he left room. I'm surprised that Hamilton seems to have forgotten this exact situation was demonstrated to him on two occasions over the last few years. He, more than anybody should have known better, because he got it wrong both times.

I don't understand why you speak of a massive speed differential; Hamilton didn't have the speed to try what he wanted to do, or he would have gotten alongside, and Vettel would have had to stop his defensive move. So, while I loathe DRS, this has nothing to do with this incident.

A final point for GiantHogWeed; the stewards didn't stop investigating it, or we wouldn't have had their official report. They investigated it, and concluded Vettel didn't break the rules. Hence no action. I'm all for such consistency!

A fair argument, but I don't think it should be a simple as the attacking driver having to be alongside before being entitled to space, as the point at which they are committed to the move occurs some time before then. At the point at which Hamilton had decided to pass on the right hand side, and also at the point at which it was too late to switch to the left, the gap was there so Hamilton was entitled to go for it. Therefore Vettel's defensive move was too late.
You can't be committed to something before you have started your move.
We can't force a defending driver to wait for whatever an attacker is showing as intent, before we allow him to (re)act.

I just checked the recording - again - and it is quite clear from Hamilton's on-board, that it is Vettel who moves to the inside before Hamilton does. So Hamilton was not committed to the move. He may have decided beforehand that he would make his attempt on the inside, but that is something different.

Quite simply, before Vettel made his move, there was only a gap on the inside. He then moved to close off the inside and Hamilton followed. That was his choice, though he could have gone for the opening gap on the outside. He didn't. And then he found he didn't have the speed to get into the inside gap before it was gone.

I can imagine Hamilton's frustration, but as I wrote, this isn't the first time he experiences this situation.

j man wrote:
Does this make defending on a straight almost impossible? Yes it does, and it's why overtaking via DRS feels so contrived because there is very little the defending driver can do about it. I re-iterate that if we start allowing that sort of blocking move against a car breezing past with DRS, we're going to see some horrendous accidents.

Whether by luck or judgement, at least Schumacher left just about a car's width between himself and the wall.
I agree almost entirely, defending is now near-impossible because of the choices made for F1 on the aerodynamics front. But that is something the drivers have to cope with.
I had to look again whether Hamilton was on a DRS-stretch there (he was), but it doesn't really change anything where the rules are concerned. Vettel was perfectly entitled to defend as he did. Hamilton was simply late because he made the wrong decision. And if there had been an accident, it would have been entirely Hamilton's fault. Whether he would have been penalized is another matter.

We simply can't say that the Schumacher-Barrichello situation was somehow similar. Barrichello was alongside and Schumacher HAD TO give him room. An accident would have been entirely his fault.

Having said that, I still don't understand why the drivers and the FIA chose to remove the rule about being alongside from the rulebook again. It is hard to see whether a driver is alongside you, if he is still at the rear wheels. But these people are supposed to be the best drivers in the world. Perhaps the reason was that it is forbidden to crowd somebody off the track as the rules say. Which then begs the question why Mr Whiting explained it is sometimes allowed...

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:52 am 
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Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.



All of the points being made, I explained 1 page ago in the detailed post.

When Hamilton emerged from the pits Vettel had already lapped a lot of the cars. Hamilton took 11 seconds out of Vettel in 8 laps whilst having to lap quite a few more cars. 1 lap before Vettel crashed there was now no lapped cars between them.

Vettel also met the cars when they were running on there own and spread out. By the time Kimi/Bottas/Hamilton caught them they were in a long train of 5-6 cars and it was in the wet part of the race. They lost a lot more time lapping them. Kimi lost P2 because of this very train as he was pushed off track by the backmarkers who were racing one another and not paying attention to blue flags.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:56 am 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

That's not what I was saying.

The point made was that the lap they put in equal times Hamitlon was held up in traffic while Vettel had clear air. I pointed out that this means Vettel also got held up in traffic on one of the previous laps where Hamilton was quicker, so whether you take that lap as equal or take the time loss off a previous lap the net result is that they put in equal times on one of those laps.

That's important because Hamilton would consistently need 1.5-2 seconds per lap to catch and pass Vettel. If they match each other on 1 lap then Hamilton would then need to lap 3-4 seconds quicker on the next lap to make the difference up. It seems unlikely that Hamilton would have caught Vettel, the gap was slightly too big, if the race were a few laps longer then is starts to look more likely.


Hamilton had just taken 11 seconds out of Vettel in 8 laps whilst lapping more cars than Vettel.
But catching 12 seconds in 15 laps is unlikely?

The gap was also down to 11.4 because Hamilton had already taken 0.8 out of Vettel in the first 2 sectors of the lap Vettel crashed on.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:29 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

If you're going to correct me, it might help if you checked your own facts first. Otherwise you just end up looking a little silly. If you remember the previous four laps as having two with a gap larger than 2 seconds, then it's your memory which is poor, not mine

In the 4 laps prior to Vettel crashing, only one was over two seconds. It's interesting that you accuse me of cherry picking while being a bit sloppy with your own facts yourself and seemingly ignoring the completely erroneous claims made by others. But I guess those don't support your own claims so you're more likely to cherry pick the ones which do, and accuracy be damned.

Lap gaps:
1.341
1.382
2.254
0.012

I count four laps there. Maybe your maths is different?

Neither driver was consistent in their laps, as the rain was making the track a little tricky. The gap came down erratically at an average of 1.65s per lap since Vettel's stop, but the lap times of both drivers fluctuated due to traffic and the conditions. Plus we seem to be ignoring the fact that Hamilton still needed to overtake Kimi and Bottas before getting to Vettel, and neither was likely to simply pull over for him. He likely would at least have encountered some delay before getting past either and given that the track was drying out it would have become less and less easy for him.

And after the SC the drivers were going as fast as they had ever been, so there's even less reason to believe that Hamilton would still have maintained the performance advantage he did right until the end. Trying to make out the win was a fait accompli is just wishful thinking and the advantage lay firmly with Vettel.


My apologies, I thought you were referring to the 4 laps prior to the 0.012 one you spoke of. I see you cut off at 4 laps because 5 laps would include another 2+ second lap.

Hamilton would have clearly been waved by Bottas. Passing Kimi may have taken a lap or two indeed. He was 1.6 behind him when Vettel crashed. The track was also at its very wettest when Vettel crashed.

Hamilton had closed 19 seconds on Kimi in 10 laps. But overtaking was "extremely difficult"? So Lewis might have ended up 4th?

Hamiltons tyres lasted just fine, he set the fastest lap of the race 2 laps from the end. He also did a monster 40 lap stint on the softs in stint 1 - which actually brought him into contention to win. Vettel would have been the one on tyres closer to the end of life. Hamilton was taking his tyres 24 laps, Pirelli max recommended distance 30 laps. Vettel was taking his 41 laps, Pirelli recommended distance 40 laps.

I know you are asserting Vettel would be safe and will continue to, but you just cherry picked a single lap to support this. That's how weak the argument is. That just shows you are happy to misrepresent what was going on on track or have simply forgotten and looking at the numbers on the lap chart. You are happy to talk about Hamiltons running out of tyre life whilst completely ignoring/forgetting that Vettel was the one taking them closer to the limit.

You say Vettel slowed down, but he was the 2nd fastest man on track. He also went off track twice. Firstly missing the hairpin and then into the gravel.

You say the track was drying, but the track was actually at its very wettest when Vettel crashed. The SC was then out for about 12 minutes and it dried during that period. No SC and we would have had a wet track for quite a few laps.

I think Hamilton would have won, so do Mercedes. I am not claiming it as certain at all. But your original comment was "Vettel's win was not under threat" which to me is simply untrue. Do you still maintain Vettel was under no threat for this win?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:57 am 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

If you're going to correct me, it might help if you checked your own facts first. Otherwise you just end up looking a little silly. If you remember the previous four laps as having two with a gap larger than 2 seconds, then it's your memory which is poor, not mine

In the 4 laps prior to Vettel crashing, only one was over two seconds. It's interesting that you accuse me of cherry picking while being a bit sloppy with your own facts yourself and seemingly ignoring the completely erroneous claims made by others. But I guess those don't support your own claims so you're more likely to cherry pick the ones which do, and accuracy be damned.

Lap gaps:
1.341
1.382
2.254
0.012

I count four laps there. Maybe your maths is different?

Neither driver was consistent in their laps, as the rain was making the track a little tricky. The gap came down erratically at an average of 1.65s per lap since Vettel's stop, but the lap times of both drivers fluctuated due to traffic and the conditions. Plus we seem to be ignoring the fact that Hamilton still needed to overtake Kimi and Bottas before getting to Vettel, and neither was likely to simply pull over for him. He likely would at least have encountered some delay before getting past either and given that the track was drying out it would have become less and less easy for him.

And after the SC the drivers were going as fast as they had ever been, so there's even less reason to believe that Hamilton would still have maintained the performance advantage he did right until the end. Trying to make out the win was a fait accompli is just wishful thinking and the advantage lay firmly with Vettel.


My apologies, I thought you were referring to the 4 laps prior to the 0.012 one you spoke of. I see you cut off at 4 laps because 5 laps would include another 2+ second lap.

Hamilton would have clearly been waved by Bottas. Passing Kimi may have taken a lap or two indeed. He was 1.6 behind him when Vettel crashed. The track was also at its very wettest when Vettel crashed.

Hamilton had closed 19 seconds on Kimi in 10 laps. But overtaking was "extremely difficult"? So Lewis might have ended up 4th?

Hamiltons tyres lasted just fine, he set the fastest lap of the race 2 laps from the end. He also did a monster 40 lap stint on the softs in stint 1 - which actually brought him into contention to win. Vettel would have been the one on tyres closer to the end of life. Hamilton was taking his tyres 24 laps, Pirelli max recommended distance 30 laps. Vettel was taking his 41 laps, Pirelli recommended distance 40 laps.

I know you are asserting Vettel would be safe and will continue to, but you just cherry picked a single lap to support this. That's how weak the argument is. That just shows you are happy to misrepresent what was going on on track or have simply forgotten and looking at the numbers on the lap chart. You are happy to talk about Hamiltons running out of tyre life whilst completely ignoring/forgetting that Vettel was the one taking them closer to the limit.

You say Vettel slowed down, but he was the 2nd fastest man on track. He also went off track twice. Firstly missing the hairpin and then into the gravel.

You say the track was drying, but the track was actually at its very wettest when Vettel crashed. The SC was then out for about 12 minutes and it dried during that period. No SC and we would have had a wet track for quite a few laps.

Yes, because one in four laps shows up the claim that Lewis was catching him at nearly 2s a lap to be bogus. It wasn't true, as I pointed out.

Would he, though? At that stage in the WDC I'm not convinced team orders would have come into play. They only did at the end because Mercedes wanted to preserve the 1-2 and not risk the two drivers taking each other out. But I agree it is possible, just not certain.

Like I said before, it was Hamilton who said overtaking was difficult, even though he'd managed it himself. I was just quoting him. You can try and ignore that all you want but you need to take that one up with Hamilton, not me. And as you have admitted, the track was at its wettest when Vettel crashed, which means it would only have been drying out in subsequent laps, which would have afforded Hamilton fewer overtaking opportunities. As to whether Hamilton would have gotten past Kimi, I absolutely think it was possible, but I also think overtaking a Ferrari would have been a very different proposition to overtaking any of the other cars up to that point and it wouldn't have been an easy task.

Not sure which point you are answering with the tyres, but I think both drivers had no issues, so don't think it would have been much of a factor, especially given the fact that they were running well below maximum for a good while. I've no idea why you're accusing me of talking about Hamilton's tyre life when I don't believe I've even mentioned it in this conversation, other than just now to answer you? I think you must be playing a different conversation in your head but it would be helpful for the purposes of the discussion if you paid a bit more attention and we wouldn't have to derail the discussion with which laps we are talking about and whatever was happening with the tyres?

Vettel did slow down. It's not relevant what others did, since the point was to show that he wasn't going to the maximum of the car's ability and once the conditions improved he could, too.

I find it hard to see where I have cherry picked a single lap when I have highlighted four laps in one post and described the whole average gain after Vettel pitted after that, in the post you just replied to. You must have a very different definition of cherry-picking to me. Unless we're back to you having a different conversation in your head again.

If the track was at its wettest when Vettel crashed, then it stands to reason that that was the worst of it and things would only improve from there on. The question is only how quickly things would get back to normal but these tyres can clear a lot of water so I suspect not that long. As soon as the SC went in the cars were all at pretty competitive speeds so the track had clearly dried well before racing resumed.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:15 pm 
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Hamilton was lapping 1.5 seconds a lap quicker than Bottas. If you think Mercedes are going to hold Hamilton up (who is chasing a win against his title rival) with Bottas then I’m wasting my time in this discussion.

I’m not ignoring Hamilton quotes. I pointed out they were pre-race and proved entirely incorrect by the race itself. Find me a post race quote from Lewis (who had just overtaken about 10 cars) saying overtaking was difficult. He had also never raced Germany with triple DRS which he acknowledges himself in your quotes and hoped that would make a difference. You are also quoting him pre race saying saying it will be hard to progress... he went from P14 to P1.

How do you know Vettel was not going to the cars maximum capability? Pure guesswork. He actually pulled away from Kimi by 10 seconds during those 6-7 laps. Although 3-4 of those seconds were due to Kimi going off road. Vettel had a big advantage over Kimi during that phase, he also went off road twice so it seems he was pushing.

Yes, I agree. No need to cherry pick anyhting. Hamilton took an average of 1.6 seconds per lap (whilst lapping more cars than Vettel). He was 11.4 seconds behind with 15 laps to go. It was a race for the win. Hamilton needed half his average to catch Vettel. You needed to be about 0.6-0.8 a lap quicker to pass with the triple DRS.

One thing you completely are missing - In full dry conditions, Hamilton still had an approx 1.5 second advantage in his tyres. It was not because of the rain he was massively catching Vettel, it was his tyres. 17 laps fresher and 2 compounds softer.

I asked at the end of the last post, but you ignored it. So I can only ask again, since this is the commment that stemmed the discussion. Do you still maintain Vettels win was under no threat?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:30 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Hamilton was lapping 1.5 seconds a lap quicker than Bottas. If you think Mercedes are going to hold Hamilton up (who is chasing a win against his title rival) with Bottas then I’m wasting my time in this discussion.

I’m not ignoring Hamilton quotes. I pointed out they were pre-race and proved entirely incorrect by the race itself. Find me a post race quote from Lewis (who had just overtaken about 10 cars) saying overtaking was difficult. He had also never raced Germany with triple DRS which he acknowledges himself in your quotes and hoped that would make a difference.

How do you know Vettel was not going to the cars maximum capability? Pure guesswork. He actually pulled away from Kimi by 10 seconds during those 6-7 laps. Although 3-4 of those seconds were due to Kimi going off road. Vettel had a big advantage over Kimi during that phase when they had been pretty equal beforehand.

Yes, I agree. No need to cherry pick anyhting. Hamilton took an average of 1.6 seconds per lap (whilst lapping more cars than Vettel). He was 11.4 seconds behind with 15 laps to go. It was a race for the win. Hamilton needed half his average to catch Vettel.

One thing you completely are missing - In full dry conditions, Hamilton still had an approx 1.5 second advantage in his tyres. It was not because of the rain he was massively catching Vettel, it was his tyres. 17 laps fresher and 2 compounds softer.

I asked at the end of the last post, but you ignored it. So I can only ask again, since this is the commment that stemmed the discussion. Do you still maintain Vettels win was under no threat?

At that stage Bottas was also a title rival. He may not have acquiesced so quickly.

This is getting a little surreal. You're talking about wasting time but I'm not the one who's either ignoring things or otherwise making them up in this discussion. I did find you a post-race quote. After you ignored it the first time I pointed it out to you again and even reposted it, but you appear to have completely ignored it again. I'm not going to repost for a 3rd time if you can't be bothered to pay attention. You can lead a horse to water and all that. Scroll up the bloody page.

One thing you are missing is that Vettel had a cushion and had no need to push. He was going on a long stint and wouldn't have wanted to take excessive life out of the tyres, whereas Hamilton had nothing to lose by going hell for leather. So their respective pace needs looking at with that in mind. I'm pretty sure Vettel would have had more (dry) pace if he needed it.

The sentence at the end of your last post did not contain any question. You stated "No SC and we would have had a wet track for quite a few laps." I remember having conversations with you in your previous incarnation where you would make things up all the time, too. I'm not sure what you hope to achieve with this, but I'll answer the question as you just posted it now: No, I don't think Vettel was under any real threat. I think there was a chance Hamilton could have caught him but I also think Vettel wasn't defenseless and I don't see that Hamilton would just breeze by him. We've had very few overtakes between the two this season and track position would have been the determining factor IMO


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:07 pm 
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You mean the post race quote were you compared Bottas tyres advantage over Hamilton to Hamiltons over Vettel? Not the same thing, worlds apart and obvious that 10 laps fresher, same compound is completely different to 17 laps fresher , 2 compounds softer. You recognise that right? But still happy to reference this quote? Bottas had a small advantage over Hamilton, Hamilton had a huge advantage over Vettel.

We have had no situation in which Hamilton/Vettel was coming coming at the other with a huge tyre advantage so referencing other races is moot. The only other occasion we have this year of a car with a similar tyre advantage is Ricciardo in China going from 5th to 1st. I am sure you recognise that in China, Ricciardo was able to go from 5th to first due to his tyre advantage?

I never said Hamilton would breeze by, I am merely, saying there was a genuine race for the win. In part brought about because Ferrari left Vettel stuck behind Raikkonen (on much older tyres) for 13 laps.


Last edited by Johnson on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:11 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
No need to be a dick about it. I’m comfortable in my ability to read a race and I don’t see that Vettel had much to worry about. I seem to recall a number of people who felt that he shouldn’t have been pushing at all because he had it all in hand, but now all of a sudden his win was under threat? Methinks you’re conveniently adapting the narrative to fit your pet theory


I think its fair to be a dick about it. I gave you a long post of why Hamilton would catch him with detailed numbers you reply with a 1 line, it wasn't under threat. I note a lack of explanation of why Vettel was under no threat from Hamilton despite losing seconds per lap?

For the same reason that Hamilton declared after the race that he had not been afraid that Bottas would overtake him towards the end, regardless of team orders, because even though Bottas was on much fresher tyres Hamiiltin said overtaking in Germany was extremely difficult so he was confident he’d be able to hold him. I’ve little doubt Vettel would have felt the same and he hadn’t been pushing as hard as Hamilton because he wasn’t ever under threat


Extremely difficult to overtake?

Winner records the most overtakes for a winner in a race in about 10 years..

Like I said, Mercedes strategy team said he would win the race. Nothing you put suggests otherwise

take it up with Hamilton:

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/22/hockenheim-f1-hardest-circuits-overtaking-hamilton/

and after

https://www.racefans.net/2018/07/26/hamilton-mercedes-german-gp-team-orders-made-difference-f1/

Did you miss this bit?

“Valtteri had fresher tyres, they woke up a little bit quicker than mine, and it was fair game,” Hamilton explained. “He gave it a great shot, I think I positioned fortunately the car in the right place.”
Hamilton said Bottas accepted the team order and acknowledged he’d missed his best chance to take the lead.

“Afterwards when we were back in the meeting room Toto [Wolff, team principal] stood there and said ‘come over’ and Valtteri came over. Valtteri was like ‘it’s fine’, because by the time [Wolff] gave the order he said [Hamilton] had already pulled away. It wasn’t like [Wolff] told him while we were in battle.”


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:26 pm 
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I also didn't realise how huge the advantage was Hamilton had over Kimi. 27 lap fresher tyres and 2 compounds softer. That pass would have been candy from a baby.

For the record, Ricciardo had 12 lap fresher tyres a 1 compound softer than the leaders in China when he went from 5th to 1st. Coming from 5 seconds behind Bottas after the restart.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:40 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Did you miss this bit?

“Valtteri had fresher tyres, they woke up a little bit quicker than mine, and it was fair game,” Hamilton explained. “He gave it a great shot, I think I positioned fortunately the car in the right place.”
Hamilton said Bottas accepted the team order and acknowledged he’d missed his best chance to take the lead.

“Afterwards when we were back in the meeting room Toto [Wolff, team principal] stood there and said ‘come over’ and Valtteri came over. Valtteri was like ‘it’s fine’, because by the time [Wolff] gave the order he said [Hamilton] had already pulled away. It wasn’t like [Wolff] told him while we were in battle.”


Bottas advantage over Hamilton was small. He had about 0.3-0.5 in his tyres but a portion of that was offset by Hamiltons superior race pace anyway. Hamilton was quicker that race, all things equal.
He was only able to get close due to Hamilton messing up the the SC restart a bit and new tyres heating up quicker as you say. The delta to pass was 0.6-0.8, Bottas had no where near that, which Hamilton knew hence his comments.


Last edited by Johnson on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:43 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Did you miss this bit?

“Valtteri had fresher tyres, they woke up a little bit quicker than mine, and it was fair game,” Hamilton explained. “He gave it a great shot, I think I positioned fortunately the car in the right place.”
Hamilton said Bottas accepted the team order and acknowledged he’d missed his best chance to take the lead.

“Afterwards when we were back in the meeting room Toto [Wolff, team principal] stood there and said ‘come over’ and Valtteri came over. Valtteri was like ‘it’s fine’, because by the time [Wolff] gave the order he said [Hamilton] had already pulled away. It wasn’t like [Wolff] told him while we were in battle.”


Bottas advantage over Hamilton was small. He had about 0.3-0.5 in his tyres but most of that was a portion of that was offset by Hamiltons superior race pace anyway. Hamilton was quicker that race, all things equal.
He was only able to get close due to Hamilton messing up the the SC restart a bit and new tyres heating up quicker as you say. The delta to pass was 0.6-0.8, Bottas had no where near that, which Hamilton knew hence his comments.

It's not that Bottas didn't have a big enough advantage. It's that he didn't have an advantage at all. Whatever tire advantage he had, it wasn't enough for him to be quicker than Lewis. He was being dropped at nearly half a second a lap in that final stint.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:47 pm 
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Hamilton had the ultimate tyres for those changeable conditions, fresh tyres which could generate heat quickly.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:52 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Did you miss this bit?

“Valtteri had fresher tyres, they woke up a little bit quicker than mine, and it was fair game,” Hamilton explained. “He gave it a great shot, I think I positioned fortunately the car in the right place.”
Hamilton said Bottas accepted the team order and acknowledged he’d missed his best chance to take the lead.

“Afterwards when we were back in the meeting room Toto [Wolff, team principal] stood there and said ‘come over’ and Valtteri came over. Valtteri was like ‘it’s fine’, because by the time [Wolff] gave the order he said [Hamilton] had already pulled away. It wasn’t like [Wolff] told him while we were in battle.”


Bottas advantage over Hamilton was small. He had about 0.3-0.5 in his tyres but most of that was a portion of that was offset by Hamiltons superior race pace anyway. Hamilton was quicker that race, all things equal.
He was only able to get close due to Hamilton messing up the the SC restart a bit and new tyres heating up quicker as you say. The delta to pass was 0.6-0.8, Bottas had no where near that, which Hamilton knew hence his comments.

It's not that Bottas didn't have a big enough advantage. It's that he didn't have an advantage at all. Whatever tire advantage he had, it wasn't enough for him to be quicker than Lewis. He was being dropped at nearly half a second a lap in that final stint.


Its hard to read as Bottas was called off and then in dirty air initially, but its not unusual this year for Hamilton to have 0.3-0.5 race pace advantage over Bottas which would completely negate his tyre advantage and maybe more. Bottas laps were close to Hamiltons, then slow, his times were quite erratic at the end.

Bottas' fastest lap was a 15.7 (lap 65), he was pushing at this phase as Kimi was trying to get him. Hamilton did a 15.5 (lap 66).

Hamilton was still 0.2 quicker, even with at least a 0.3 tyre disadvantage. He had a vastly superior race pace to Bottas in Germany. It went under the radar a bit but it was one of Hamiltons best races in terms of race pace. His first stint was probably his best stint of the entire year.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:59 pm 
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Quote:
Find me a post race quote from Lewis (who had just overtaken about 10 cars) saying overtaking was difficult.


I wonder if you'll accept it from me:

“The fans of course they want to see us keep racing,” he said. “But I had pretty good pace that Sunday and if you look it’s not an easy track to overtake."

That's from the link halfway up this page. There's no way he can be talking about "that Sunday" and it be before the race, unless you're now suggesting Hamilton is a time-traveler.

I'm not entirely sure what Hockenheim has to do with the Russian Grand Prix anyway, but if you're going to ask for proof of something, don't then deny it when it's given to you.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:07 pm 
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That quote was in reference to Bottas being able to pass him as I have mentioned.

Hamilton references that Vettel could not overtake Kimi, but Vettel only had about a 0.7 advantage over Kimi which was right on the cusp of the time needed break through the dirty air and pass. He also didn't want to kill his tyres attempting such a pass as he said on the radio himself in his continual requests to be let by.

The tyre advantage Hamilton had over Vettel is not comparable to these situations, he had about double that advantage. More similar to the time advantage he had over the Renaults/Force India's/ Haas' he easily overtook in the first stint.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:43 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

lapping cars doesn't give a consistent time penalty. It all depends on where an overtake takes place and whether you've actually been held up in any corners or not

Yet you can define that Vettel being able to lap at the same speed as Hamilton for one lap defines at that point in the race that Vettel was starting to drive at the same speed as Hamilton?

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:51 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

That's not what I was saying.

The point made was that the lap they put in equal times Hamitlon was held up in traffic while Vettel had clear air. I pointed out that this means Vettel also got held up in traffic on one of the previous laps where Hamilton was quicker, so whether you take that lap as equal or take the time loss off a previous lap the net result is that they put in equal times on one of those laps.

That's important because Hamilton would consistently need 1.5-2 seconds per lap to catch and pass Vettel. If they match each other on 1 lap then Hamilton would then need to lap 3-4 seconds quicker on the next lap to make the difference up. It seems unlikely that Hamilton would have caught Vettel, the gap was slightly too big, if the race were a few laps longer then is starts to look more likely.

I take your point that Hamilton wasn't lapping fast enough but only if you are considering the track itself as a consistent parameter, the lap that Vettel crashed it was raining harder potentially meaning that Hamilton would catch Vettel even faster however we were not able to witness that, but let's say Vettel managed to not crash when he left the circuit he would still have lost extra seconds and a few laps after that would potentially lose a big chunck of seconds when the track was at it's wettest.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:41 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Zoue wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
The lap before Vettel crashed, Vettel had clean air and Hamilton lapped 5 cars on that lap. You clearly don’t remember it very well. Poor cherry picking.

Also in the previous 4 laps, Two were over 2 seconds quicker. Not one.

Problem with that line of reasoning is that Vettel already passed those cars, so you have to make the same time loss allowance for one of Vettel's previous laps. So it doesn't really make any difference.

It doesn't make a difference that Vettel was 2 seconds slower whilst in the same circumstance Hamilton lapped at the same speed as Vettel?

lapping cars doesn't give a consistent time penalty. It all depends on where an overtake takes place and whether you've actually been held up in any corners or not

Yet you can define that Vettel being able to lap at the same speed as Hamilton for one lap defines at that point in the race that Vettel was starting to drive at the same speed as Hamilton?

where did I write that?


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