planetf1.com

It is currently Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:32 am

All times are UTC


Forum rules


Please read the forum rules



Post new topic Reply to topic
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:03 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 28454
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:

Anecdotal? The teammanger siding up with a driver?
Even if Alonso was given an advantage at the beginning didn't stop him from being given a disadvantage at the end

What disadvantage? Simply repeating a baseless assertion doesn't make it valid...


If you don't understand the advantage of having Ron Dennis on your side I rest my case, but do keep it up if you like

You're still stuck on anecdotes. Ron Dennis's comment from late in the season does not actually prove anything. You do realize that right? In order to give a driver preference, you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though. I asked you a very simple question. In what way was Alonso disadvantaged? If you can't answer that simple question, you should stop saying that he was disadvantaged. It's just dishonest.


Can you prove the part in bold? Otherwise you are a victim of your own words...

Can you prove otherwise?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:06 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 5557
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:

Anecdotal? The teammanger siding up with a driver?
Even if Alonso was given an advantage at the beginning didn't stop him from being given a disadvantage at the end

What disadvantage? Simply repeating a baseless assertion doesn't make it valid...


If you don't understand the advantage of having Ron Dennis on your side I rest my case, but do keep it up if you like

You're still stuck on anecdotes. Ron Dennis's comment from late in the season does not actually prove anything. You do realize that right? In order to give a driver preference, you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though. I asked you a very simple question. In what way was Alonso disadvantaged? If you can't answer that simple question, you should stop saying that he was disadvantaged. It's just dishonest.


Can you prove the part in bold? Otherwise you are a victim of your own words...

Again, I don't have to prove that it didn't happen. You have to prove that it did. If I say that I ran the 100 meters in 9.4 seconds, do you have to prove me wrong? Or do I have to prove that I actually am the fastest man ever?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:13 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:19 am
Posts: 986
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:18 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:15 am
Posts: 28
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:19 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 5557
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:23 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:19 am
Posts: 986
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


I just did, how many times do I have to tell you that Ron Dennis choosed Hamiltons side off the garage and even claimed they were racing Alonso, I bet that would even stick in court, so step down from your high horse and move on.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:24 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:42 pm
Posts: 2019
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


I just did, how many times do I have to tell you that Ron Dennis choosed Hamiltons side off the garage and even claimed they were racing Alonso, I bet that would even stick in court, so step down from your high horse and move on.


That's not proof in anyway. You'd be laughed out of court.

_________________
Top Three Team Champions 2017 (With Jezza13)
Group Pick 'Em 2016 Champion


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:26 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 5557
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


I just did, how many times do I have to tell you that Ron Dennis choosed Hamiltons side off the garage and even claimed they were racing Alonso, I bet that would even stick in court, so step down from your high horse and move on.

I'm trying to keep a straight face. One comment taken completely out of context from very late in the season is not proof of anything. You really need to understand that. That's not proof. PERIOD.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:28 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:19 am
Posts: 986
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


I just did, how many times do I have to tell you that Ron Dennis choosed Hamiltons side off the garage and even claimed they were racing Alonso, I bet that would even stick in court, so step down from your high horse and move on.

I'm trying to keep a straight face. One comment taken completely out of context from very late in the season is not proof of anything. You really need to understand that. That's not proof. PERIOD.


I haven't had a straight face anytime in this conversation : ) off course it is, if you can't see that it is totally on you.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:29 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 5557
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
AnRs wrote:
I just proved that. And how do you prove your claim? You just claimed that " you have to either give them a better strategy or better parts or perhaps employ team orders in their favor, etc. None of that happened though" with nothing at all to back it up?

You don't seem to understand the concept of the burden of proof. If you want to assert that McLaren gave Hamilton preferential treatment, YOU have to prove it. You can't simply make the assertion and then force others to disprove it. That would be the equivalent of accusing someone of a crime and then forcing them to prove that they didn't commit it. The burden of proof is always on the prosecution.

You are asking me to prove that Alonso wasn't disadvantaged but you could ask the same question about Hamilton or anyone else. Bottom line: to move forward with an acceptance of your assertion, YOU must provide evidence. You haven't done that so your assertion is totally unsubstantiated.


I just did, how many times do I have to tell you that Ron Dennis choosed Hamiltons side off the garage and even claimed they were racing Alonso, I bet that would even stick in court, so step down from your high horse and move on.

I'm trying to keep a straight face. One comment taken completely out of context from very late in the season is not proof of anything. You really need to understand that. That's not proof. PERIOD.


I haven't had a straight face anytime in this conversation : ) off course it is, if you can't see that it is totally on you.

:o


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:30 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:21 am
Posts: 3517
Burden of proof lies with whoever makes the assertion.

Ron Dennis, McLaren and Alonso are irrelevant to the thread. Move on guys.

_________________
AlienTurnedHuman wrote:
Eurytus probably thought he was God. At least until he was banned. Which means if he was God, it makes me very scared of PF1-Mod.

Please report forum problems to us, via PM/Feedback Thread. Screenshots will also help.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:31 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:52 pm
Posts: 3077
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:49 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:15 am
Posts: 28
F1_Ernie wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.



There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:06 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 4:12 pm
Posts: 6406
Location: Nebraska, USA
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Blake wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The excuse about favoritism is also a complete fabrication. There was NO favoritism whatsoever against Alonso and, in fact, he was the one favored through the first 5 races of the season in terms of always qualifying lighter and gaining fuel strategy preference. There is no mitigating excuse for Alonso. There are no accurate fuel correction figures available because that all relies on guestimation. The fact is that once they started alternating fuel preference, Hamilton beat Alonso 8-4 in qualifying and up until the final two races, he had put Alonso in the rear view mirror.


Are you sure it is a complete fabrication? I have heard of inequalities within the team during the season that favored Lewis, though I cannot prove them, nor can you disprove them. The word I was given was reportedly from members of Alonso's engineering/put team.

The point is that we do not know everything that went on inside McLaren that year. We don't know for sure what Alonso was told or promised. Nor do we know for sure what Lewis was told. maybe one day it will all come out?

Sorry but no, that's not how it works. An unsubstantiated rumor has to be proven, not disproven. What we do know is that Alonso was given very clear favoritism in the first third of the season. Speculation about some kind of favoritism for Hamilton is totally unsubstantiated.

Indeed and strange that a poster should bring forward an unsubstantiated rumour when such a thing would normally be criticised.


What is not strange is that neither of you would fail to understand, or deliberately ignore, the point being made. Sandman basically said that all claims of Hamilton preferential treatment are complete fabrication. I asked "are you sure?" . Then I used an example of what I had been told making note that I had no real proof, but that one must acknowledge the possibility that at times Lewis may well have gotten preferential treatment and that we don't know what all went on within the team. You make a definitive claim that any suggestion that all suggestions of favoritism are "complete fabrication"... ie lies, then expect to be called on it.
I guess I should just bow and accept the words of two all-knowing Hamilton experts who are so sure that Lewis did not get ANY preferential treatment during that year and accept it... It is difficult to do though.
;)

BTW, poker... Said poster of the unsubstantiated rumor did state he could not prove it as it was something he was told...and I/he have been criticized for it. So what is your point?

_________________
Forza Ferrari
WCCs = 16
WDCs = 15


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 28454
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Blake wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
The excuse about favoritism is also a complete fabrication. There was NO favoritism whatsoever against Alonso and, in fact, he was the one favored through the first 5 races of the season in terms of always qualifying lighter and gaining fuel strategy preference. There is no mitigating excuse for Alonso. There are no accurate fuel correction figures available because that all relies on guestimation. The fact is that once they started alternating fuel preference, Hamilton beat Alonso 8-4 in qualifying and up until the final two races, he had put Alonso in the rear view mirror.


Are you sure it is a complete fabrication? I have heard of inequalities within the team during the season that favored Lewis, though I cannot prove them, nor can you disprove them. The word I was given was reportedly from members of Alonso's engineering/put team.

The point is that we do not know everything that went on inside McLaren that year. We don't know for sure what Alonso was told or promised. Nor do we know for sure what Lewis was told. maybe one day it will all come out?

Sorry but no, that's not how it works. An unsubstantiated rumor has to be proven, not disproven. What we do know is that Alonso was given very clear favoritism in the first third of the season. Speculation about some kind of favoritism for Hamilton is totally unsubstantiated.

Indeed and strange that a poster should bring forward an unsubstantiated rumour when such a thing would normally be criticised.


What is not strange is that neither of you would fail to understand, or deliberately ignore, the point being made. Sandman basically said that all claims of Hamilton preferential treatment are complete fabrication. I asked "are you sure?" . Then I used an example of what I had been told making note that I had no real proof, but that one must acknowledge the possibility that at times Lewis may well have gotten preferential treatment and that we don't know what all went on within the team. You make a definitive claim that any suggestion that all suggestions of favoritism are "complete fabrication"... ie lies, then expect to be called on it.
I guess I should just bow and accept the words of two all-knowing Hamilton experts who are so sure that Lewis did not get ANY preferential treatment during that year and accept it... It is difficult to do though.
;)

BTW, poker... Said poster of the unsubstantiated rumor did state he could not prove it as it was something he was told...and I have been criticized for it. So what is your point?

It's a fabrication if it's never been proven, this is a stance you yourself would normally take, this being my point.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:51 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm
Posts: 5557
Junglist wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.



There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

That's an awfully bleak assessment of Lewis's chances. I don't think it's quite so cut and dried as that but I do agree that if Vettel can just have a string of clean race weekends, he can regain the lead within the next few races. Of course Vettel is also in a position where one more DNF will just about bury him.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:02 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 23910
Junglist wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.



There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:33 pm
Posts: 1922
I don't think Vettel needs anything remotely close to a small miracle to win, but do see Hamilton now as the favourite to win the WDC to the tune of something like 65:35.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:16 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:52 pm
Posts: 3077
Small miracle and one hand on the trophy, WOW :lol:

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2016: 24th place
2017: 4th place

Wins: Spain 2016, Canada 2017, Malaysia 2017
Podiums: 2nd Germany 2016, 3rd Mexico 2016


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:26 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 4:12 pm
Posts: 6406
Location: Nebraska, USA
pokerman wrote:
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Indeed and strange that a poster should bring forward an unsubstantiated rumour when such a thing would normally be criticised.


What is not strange is that neither of you would fail to understand, or deliberately ignore, the point being made. Sandman basically said that all claims of Hamilton preferential treatment are complete fabrication. I asked "are you sure?" . Then I used an example of what I had been told making note that I had no real proof, but that one must acknowledge the possibility that at times Lewis may well have gotten preferential treatment and that we don't know what all went on within the team. You make a definitive claim that any suggestion that all suggestions of favoritism are "complete fabrication"... ie lies, then expect to be called on it.
I guess I should just bow and accept the words of two all-knowing Hamilton experts who are so sure that Lewis did not get ANY preferential treatment during that year and accept it... It is difficult to do though.
;)

BTW, poker... Said poster of the unsubstantiated rumor did state he could not prove it as it was something he was told...and I have been criticized for it. So what is your point?

It's a fabrication if it's never been proven, this is a stance you yourself would normally take, this being my point.


Poker, there is a difference between a "fabrication" and an "unsubstantiated rumor". A fabrication is a lie, while a rumor may or may not be a true. You have basically called me liar with your posts and I resent it. I feel that I am owed an apology.

As for my challenging a person for proof, You are right, I do frequently challenge people who list things as "facts" to prove it as you should be well aware of. I did not claim what I was told was "fact", instead making a point that it was something I was told but had no proof for. I was very careful to make that clear. If one acknowledges their claim is opinion, or even rumor, usually, my approach is different. Please understand the difference.

_________________
Forza Ferrari
WCCs = 16
WDCs = 15


Last edited by Blake on Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:29 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:15 am
Posts: 28
sandman1347 wrote:
Junglist wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.



There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

That's an awfully bleak assessment of Lewis's chances. I don't think it's quite so cut and dried as that but I do agree that if Vettel can just have a string of clean race weekends, he can regain the lead within the next few races. Of course Vettel is also in a position where one more DNF will just about bury him.


I'm naturally a 'glass half empty' kind of guy but I just think Sebastian will now be on it. He's getting criticised from all angles at the moment (rightly or wrongly, that's down to you. I think people are being too harsh on him, personally) and I can imagine he is going to want to prove everyone wrong about his year so far.


Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


I would ignore that poster when it comes to Hamilton.

Ferrari have had the better car this season, how much is a debate but it's been the better car. What has let down the car is Vettel and some strategic mistakes by Ferrari. Hamilton has had a little luck with the weather but it's not his fault he is the best driver on the grid in wet conditions.

Vettel should be leading this championship and not losing by 30points. His losing by 30points in which Hamilton has had a mechanical DNF.

Hamilton has upped the level for quite a few races now.



There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake


I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! :lol: )


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:55 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:06 pm
Posts: 2635
Location: England
Lewis tends to go well at COTA so I can see him winning that, and I still think Suzuka will be a Mercedes track too. If he wins those 2, and keeps it clean in the rest of the races, I reckon Hamilton will win it. No idea if mathematically he can win it with 2nd places after 2 wins but that scenario is not exactly beyond the realm of possibility. Vettel having to chase to close that gap is always going to ramp up the pressure, and any reliability issues for him is going to ring the death knell on his campaign this year..... Lewis is in a healthy position.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2018: {Rookie Year}
Current positon: 1st | 3 Podiums | 1 Win


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 5:28 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:48 pm
Posts: 2936
Location: UK
Flash2k11 wrote:
Lewis tends to go well at COTA so I can see him winning that, and I still think Suzuka will be a Mercedes track too. If he wins those 2, and keeps it clean in the rest of the races, I reckon Hamilton will win it. No idea if mathematically he can win it with 2nd places after 2 wins but that scenario is not exactly beyond the realm of possibility. Vettel having to chase to close that gap is always going to ramp up the pressure, and any reliability issues for him is going to ring the death knell on his campaign this year..... Lewis is in a healthy position.

But on the flip side Mercedes could well be 3rd best at Singapore, Hamilton does not have a great record at Sochi and he habitually makes a mess of things at Interlagos. So he's in a healthy position but I don't think it's over by any stretch. Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:02 pm 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 28454
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Indeed and strange that a poster should bring forward an unsubstantiated rumour when such a thing would normally be criticised.


What is not strange is that neither of you would fail to understand, or deliberately ignore, the point being made. Sandman basically said that all claims of Hamilton preferential treatment are complete fabrication. I asked "are you sure?" . Then I used an example of what I had been told making note that I had no real proof, but that one must acknowledge the possibility that at times Lewis may well have gotten preferential treatment and that we don't know what all went on within the team. You make a definitive claim that any suggestion that all suggestions of favoritism are "complete fabrication"... ie lies, then expect to be called on it.
I guess I should just bow and accept the words of two all-knowing Hamilton experts who are so sure that Lewis did not get ANY preferential treatment during that year and accept it... It is difficult to do though.
;)

BTW, poker... Said poster of the unsubstantiated rumor did state he could not prove it as it was something he was told...and I have been criticized for it. So what is your point?

It's a fabrication if it's never been proven, this is a stance you yourself would normally take, this being my point.


Poker, there is a difference between a "fabrication" and an "unsubstantiated rumor". A fabrication is a lie, while a rumor may or may not be a true. You have basically called me liar with your posts and I resent it. I feel that I am owed an apology.

As for my challenging a person for proof, You are right, I do frequently challenge people who list things as "facts" to prove it as you should be well aware of. I did not claim what I was told was "fact", instead making a point that it was something I was told but had no proof for. I was very careful to make that clear. If one acknowledges their claim is opinion, or even rumor, usually, my approach is different. Please understand the difference.

Well that's just my misunderstanding of the terminology and for that I apologise it wasn't my intention to call you a liar.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:30 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 4:12 pm
Posts: 6406
Location: Nebraska, USA
pokerman wrote:
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Blake wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Indeed and strange that a poster should bring forward an unsubstantiated rumour when such a thing would normally be criticised.


What is not strange is that neither of you would fail to understand, or deliberately ignore, the point being made. Sandman basically said that all claims of Hamilton preferential treatment are complete fabrication. I asked "are you sure?" . Then I used an example of what I had been told making note that I had no real proof, but that one must acknowledge the possibility that at times Lewis may well have gotten preferential treatment and that we don't know what all went on within the team. You make a definitive claim that any suggestion that all suggestions of favoritism are "complete fabrication"... ie lies, then expect to be called on it.
I guess I should just bow and accept the words of two all-knowing Hamilton experts who are so sure that Lewis did not get ANY preferential treatment during that year and accept it... It is difficult to do though.
;)

BTW, poker... Said poster of the unsubstantiated rumor did state he could not prove it as it was something he was told...and I have been criticized for it. So what is your point?

It's a fabrication if it's never been proven, this is a stance you yourself would normally take, this being my point.


Poker, there is a difference between a "fabrication" and an "unsubstantiated rumor". A fabrication is a lie, while a rumor may or may not be a true. You have basically called me liar with your posts and I resent it. I feel that I am owed an apology.

As for my challenging a person for proof, You are right, I do frequently challenge people who list things as "facts" to prove it as you should be well aware of. I did not claim what I was told was "fact", instead making a point that it was something I was told but had no proof for. I was very careful to make that clear. If one acknowledges their claim is opinion, or even rumor, usually, my approach is different. Please understand the difference.

Well that's just my misunderstanding of the terminology and for that I apologise it wasn't my intention to call you a liar.


Fair enough, poker.
:thumbup:

_________________
Forza Ferrari
WCCs = 16
WDCs = 15


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:31 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:54 am
Posts: 2282
j man wrote:
Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.

Honestly it feels that apart from Austria, every "twist" this season has involved Ferrari losing out and Mercedes gaining somehow.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:33 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 14225
KingVoid wrote:
j man wrote:
Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.

Honestly it feels that apart from Austria, every "twist" this season has involved Ferrari losing out and Mercedes gaining somehow.


Australia, Baku...


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:06 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 23910
mikeyg123 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
j man wrote:
Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.

Honestly it feels that apart from Austria, every "twist" this season has involved Ferrari losing out and Mercedes gaining somehow.


Australia, Baku...
Baku was Hamilton's gain and Vettel's loss


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:33 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 14225
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
j man wrote:
Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.

Honestly it feels that apart from Austria, every "twist" this season has involved Ferrari losing out and Mercedes gaining somehow.


Australia, Baku...
Baku was Hamilton's gain and Vettel's loss


Mercedes lost a one/two from Bottas' puncture. It was good for Hamilton though.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:39 am 
Offline

Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:48 pm
Posts: 600
AnRs wrote:

Can you prove the part in bold? Otherwise you are a victim of your own words...


The burden is on you to prove it, since you're the one claiming Alonso was disadvantaged.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:42 am 
Offline

Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:48 pm
Posts: 600
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


Actually, chances of Vettel winning the WDC at this point are minimal, imo.


Last edited by Ocon on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:51 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 23910
j man wrote:
Flash2k11 wrote:
Lewis tends to go well at COTA so I can see him winning that, and I still think Suzuka will be a Mercedes track too. If he wins those 2, and keeps it clean in the rest of the races, I reckon Hamilton will win it. No idea if mathematically he can win it with 2nd places after 2 wins but that scenario is not exactly beyond the realm of possibility. Vettel having to chase to close that gap is always going to ramp up the pressure, and any reliability issues for him is going to ring the death knell on his campaign this year..... Lewis is in a healthy position.

But on the flip side Mercedes could well be 3rd best at Singapore, Hamilton does not have a great record at Sochi and he habitually makes a mess of things at Interlagos. So he's in a healthy position but I don't think it's over by any stretch. Plus there's bound to be a couple more twists to come, 7 routine races to the end of the season feels unlikely.

I agree it's not over, but I'd say things look quite bleak from Vettel's perspective and Hamilton is in a fairly commanding position. Of course a DNF will change the landscape quite considerably, but failing that Vettel has a bit of a mountain to climb and basically can't really afford for Lewis to finish ahead of him again and extend the gap even more. He'd have to expect Hamilton to at least get podiums, which means Vettel needs to be targeting consistent wins in order to overhaul him. I don't think he can rely on Kimi to keep Hamilton at bay, do you?


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:34 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:50 am
Posts: 883
Location: UK
I can't help thinking that on the circuits less favoured by Mercedes/Hamilton that Verstappen and Ricciardo will play a part in some way also quite often when LH fails to hook it up Bottas does. Vettel needs to be across all of this.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:56 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:19 am
Posts: 986
Ocon wrote:
AnRs wrote:

Can you prove the part in bold? Otherwise you are a victim of your own words...


The burden is on you to prove it, since you're the one claiming Alonso was disadvantaged.


We've actually been told to leave that part alone, so let's move on..
Alonso 2007 ""I have a British team-mate in a British team, and he's doing a great job and we know that all the support and help is going to him,""


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:22 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:15 am
Posts: 28
Ocon wrote:
Junglist wrote:
AnRs wrote:
Hamilton was favorite at the start of 2018 and still is, with a clear #2 and the fastest or nearly fastest and 4 years of winning all titles it's not that easy to dethrone Mercedes.

Takes an effort worthy of Alonso ending Ferrari winning in 2005.

IMO Merc is favorite all the way until the reg changes


I wish I had that level of optimism. I really don't see Lewis beating Vettel this year, as much as I would like him to.

I can see Vettel going on a storming run now for the last few races and snatching the WDC at the penultimate race.

If Vettel doesn't win this WDC I will eat a gerbil. (I won't. But, you know..)


Actually, chances of Vettel winning the WDC at this point are minimal, imo.


I really don't see it that way. 7 races to go and how often did the lead change in the first half of the season. Only takes 1 DNF or poor race from Lewis with Sebastian doing well and he is right back in the mix.

I won't get into who deserves it more but life isn't about getting what's deserved. I just think Sebastian will be able to get more points over the coming races than Lewis.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:35 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 23910
Junglist wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:

There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake


I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! :lol: )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off :lol:

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad :blush:

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:48 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:33 pm
Posts: 1922
The bottom line is that Hamilton and Vettel have good chances of winning the 2018 WDC.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:49 am 
Offline

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 14225
Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:

There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake


I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! :lol: )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off :lol:

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad :blush:

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far


I don't agree it's that nailed on yet. One retirement basically wipes out Hamilton's entire lead. He could have an engine failure in Signapore and have Vettel 5 points behind him in the WDC with a slightly faster package.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:51 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 28454
Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Junglist wrote:

There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake


I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! :lol: )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off :lol:

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad :blush:

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:53 am 
Offline

Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 28454
Invade wrote:
The bottom line is that Hamilton and Vettel have good chances of winning the 2018 WDC.

Indeed we are going to have a 5 time world champion, the race four five, using finger motif. :)

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 3rd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic

All times are UTC


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: owenmahamilton, Siao7 and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group