pokerman wrote:
Johnson wrote:
I was on the fence for a while and after 2017 I thought Bottas could push on in 2018 and at least be at Rosbergs level. It was a solid start considering it was a new team etc. Now having seen nearly 2 full seasons, its clear now that Rosberg > Bottas.
Bottas is decent on his day and solid enough but once again in the second half of the year he has been heavily beaten by Hamilton. After a promising first 3-4 races this year, Bottas' 2018 has been a bit of a disaster. I think his 2017 might actually be stronger, although he did have the luxury of a car advantage in 2017.
A similar pattern to last year though where Hamilton took 3-4 races to warm to the car and then once happy Bottas at times found himself a long way back.
Like yourself I've hung back on this to give Bottas a chance but he's not looking to be quite as quick as Rosberg, this is not entirely scientific but as a rough overview I would say:-
Hamilton>1 tenth>Rosberg>1 tenth>Bottas
Yeah, I'd echo those thoughts. I did expect him to be closer to Lewis this year, obviously not equal but certainly benefitting from having had a year at Mercedes to settle. For a little while at the start of the season it seemed like that might actually be the case, and I know some of it is down to misfortune and then team orders, but it's becoming harder and harder to argue a case that Bottas would ever be anything beyond a number two driver at a top team.
I suppose one thing that might be skewing what we're seeing slightly is that Nico and Lewis were largely untroubled by the cars behind them, whereas Ferrari have got a lot closer to Mercedes during Bottas' time at the team than they ever did in 2014/15/16. During those years, on weekends where Hamilton (or even Rosberg, for that matter) had more of an advantage over the other, because Mercedes were so far ahead it meant the slower driver was still quick enough to finish 2nd if nothing went wrong. Bottas doesn't necessarily have that luxury as being three/four tenths down on Lewis can result in a Ferrari and even a Red Bull ending up ahead of him. I do think that Rosberg was closer to Lewis than Valtteri is (their qualifying H2H backs that up, for instance) but I also feel like Mercedes' performance relative to the rest of the field would've flattered Rosberg slightly, whilst simultaneously exaggerating how far Bottas is actually behind.