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 Post subject: Re: Mercedes Strategy
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:46 am 
kleefton wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
Look at the data, look at the times. The Ferrari was poor on its tyres in both stints and in both stints Vettels times dropped off slightly earlier than the tyres were expected to go.


An "expectation", though, is not an exact determination. Expectations can or can't come through in the real actual world. Vettel had to find the optimal balance between preserving them to go the full distance, and driving fast enough to fend off the Mercs that would hold a fast rhythm until the end of the race. And he did just that.


He won the race but that does not mean he did a great job with the tyres, he destroyed the tyres and won largely because the Mercedes pit wall completely misjudged the race and backed way off to save tyres for an expected Vettel SS push at the end. That is what won him the race. He did not do a good job in keeping his tyres alive, his pace at the end was terrible. Yes he still won the race, but Kimi would have won it if he got out the pits - that's how bad Vettels S tyre stint was - that a car that was 5 seconds behind him could beat him by stopping with 20 laps to go. If that did happen, would we all be saying how good Vettels soft tyre stint was? No. The headlines would be he destroyed them. Headline writers are so fickle. Ironically if Kimi stayed in the race Vettel would have likely been 3rd too, because Bottas (knowing Kimi was coming) would not have slowed down so much for 10 laps and caught Vettel a lot earlier.


I think you are forgetting that the original plan for Vettel was to do a 2 stopper. He had to change his strategy on the fly. When Raikonnen went down, he got the message that the strategy was changing. So you can't blame him for running out of tires at the end. He probably was pushing harder than necessary early in that second stint, anticipating to stop again. It was obvious, because he was very agressive with Lewis, once he came upon him. But once Raikonnen went down, it became 1 versus 2 for Ferrari, so their only chance at winning the race was to let Vettel try the one stopper.

I think Ferrari also got caught out with how quick the mercs were on the medium tire.


The time sheet doesn’t show that, its seems clear he was looking after his tyres from the very start of that stint. Unless he was just slow on the soft tyre. Both Bottas and Kimi were catching him. The fact that on his 18th lap he was just 0.1 off his initial pace suggests he was taking it quite easy early on.

Ferrari did not switch to a 1 stop the moment Kimi went out, it would have been on there radar as soon as they saw Bottas put mediums on.


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 Post subject: Re: Mercedes Strategy
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:04 pm 
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lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
He himself said they were done with 10 laps to go, so we know for a fact he didn't do a stellar job of saving them. His skill came into play after they tires were shot.


Wondering why I make that kind of posts full of relevant data for it to then be brushed under the carpet with a blanket statement like that. No, we don't know that for a fact, the facts as posted above point towards him doing a great job on them.


A good job on the tyres is generally considered taking them further than anybody else whilst maintaining a very solid respectable pace. For example what Vettel did in Australia 2017, he went further than anyone and still kept pumping in great lap times when everybody else had slowed down.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree, because Vettel did the first part of the that (taking them further) but not the later and was slow. How slow, we won't ever know because there was no one to properly compare him too. But so slow that if he had pitted 5 laps from the end onto SS he would have completed the race quicker than he actually did limping home on worn out softs. Literally if Bottas pitted with 5-6 laps to go he would have re-caught him up and won, that's how horrible his pace was.

If he stayed in the high 34's or maybe even low 35's I would get on board as it something special, but he gradually fell from there to the mid 35's, to high 35's into the lows 36's by the end. The great part of his drive was not sliding off like ReservoirDog says.


Look. I've shown, with all the numbers needed, with comparisons, and even by using your own words as to what would be an "expected" drop off, that even a good number of laps further than Pirelli's recommendation and than others took them, Vettel's drop off was still lower than all others. That we can't "properly compare him to anyone" I still don't agree with. There were two drivers taking them to 30 laps, one of which at least was at full racing speed and so fully comparable up until those 30 laps, and I haven't even begun mentioning Hamilton's drop-off.

I don't know what more I can do. All actual facts (as brought up above) point to him doing a very good job. If you don't accept that, I guess that's fine, but I feel confident in that the data supports my view. You have misrepresented facts (drop-offs & things like Ocon-Sainz positions), I'm sure by mistake instead of on purpose, the nice thing would have been to at least admit as such.

By the way, it has been pointed out to you that he went into the 36's because his focus changed from lap time to defense. I'm not sure why you even mention it then.

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 Post subject: Re: Mercedes Strategy
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:18 pm 
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Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:25 pm
Posts: 427
Location: USA
Siao7 wrote:
Blake wrote:
So in summary, Vettel didn't do anything special, nor did Kimi, Max was a ****head, Bottas didn't race Seb hard enough, and Mercedes screwed up Lewis, leaving Hamilton as the both the victim and the hero.

Have I got that right?
;)


I was thinking the same actually Blake. So far Vettel has won two races with doing... nothing at all? I wonder why he even bothers turning up...

Come on guys, no two tyres are the same. The 30 laps is indicative; a very good indication indeed, but still it is indicative. How many times have we heard that a tyre underperformed greatly and they were going to investigate it? It also varies depending on being in dirty air, under pressure, driving to a T, etc.

So Vettel starting his stint with a 2-stopper in mind and then having to change strategy and nurse the tyres he had already raced hard, that is impressive on it's own merit.




Let's not forget the first stint as well, how did Vettal build the lead? Tire management? How about raw speed? he beat VB to the turn and ran clean for the first stint, not pitting a wrong foot down. Second sting ran his S longer than LH on either set of tires. The M were supposed to be the most durable and on low fuel should haver been superior somehow VB and LH couldn't get past SV. at the end of the day thats what matters. SV won because he was first across the line. Thats the only thing that matters, in the immortal words of Enzo a perfect race car is the one that wins the race and falls apart crossing the finish line.

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 Post subject: Re: Mercedes Strategy
PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:05 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:14 pm
Posts: 3478
lamo wrote:
kleefton wrote:
lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
lamo wrote:
Look at the data, look at the times. The Ferrari was poor on its tyres in both stints and in both stints Vettels times dropped off slightly earlier than the tyres were expected to go.


An "expectation", though, is not an exact determination. Expectations can or can't come through in the real actual world. Vettel had to find the optimal balance between preserving them to go the full distance, and driving fast enough to fend off the Mercs that would hold a fast rhythm until the end of the race. And he did just that.


He won the race but that does not mean he did a great job with the tyres, he destroyed the tyres and won largely because the Mercedes pit wall completely misjudged the race and backed way off to save tyres for an expected Vettel SS push at the end. That is what won him the race. He did not do a good job in keeping his tyres alive, his pace at the end was terrible. Yes he still won the race, but Kimi would have won it if he got out the pits - that's how bad Vettels S tyre stint was - that a car that was 5 seconds behind him could beat him by stopping with 20 laps to go. If that did happen, would we all be saying how good Vettels soft tyre stint was? No. The headlines would be he destroyed them. Headline writers are so fickle. Ironically if Kimi stayed in the race Vettel would have likely been 3rd too, because Bottas (knowing Kimi was coming) would not have slowed down so much for 10 laps and caught Vettel a lot earlier.


I think you are forgetting that the original plan for Vettel was to do a 2 stopper. He had to change his strategy on the fly. When Raikonnen went down, he got the message that the strategy was changing. So you can't blame him for running out of tires at the end. He probably was pushing harder than necessary early in that second stint, anticipating to stop again. It was obvious, because he was very agressive with Lewis, once he came upon him. But once Raikonnen went down, it became 1 versus 2 for Ferrari, so their only chance at winning the race was to let Vettel try the one stopper.

I think Ferrari also got caught out with how quick the mercs were on the medium tire.


The time sheet doesn’t show that, its seems clear he was looking after his tyres from the very start of that stint. Unless he was just slow on the soft tyre. Both Bottas and Kimi were catching him. The fact that on his 18th lap he was just 0.1 off his initial pace suggests he was taking it quite easy early on.

Ferrari did not switch to a 1 stop the moment Kimi went out, it would have been on there radar as soon as they saw Bottas put mediums on.


The exact radio message relayed to Vettel was: " Plan D, plan D, Kimi has retired with an issue" The message was broadcast around lap 40. What else could this mean? This was right about the time Vettel would come in for ss and go on attack mode at the end, but the problem is that he had 2 mercedes in his pit window and the win was going to be impossible because in order to achieve it he would have to overtake both. That is why he stayed out.
And he was building a gap to Bottas between laps 30-40. He gained about 3.5 seconds. Bottas was not catching him in that time span. It looks to me like he was pushing pretty hard because he was about to pit. But then the radio message came.
Vettel Bottas
30 1:35.502[1] 1:35.011[2] +0.491 -4.175 15
31 1:35.315[1] 1:35.344[2] -0.029 -4.204 16
32 1:34.887[1] 1:35.028[2] -0.141 -4.345 17
33 1:34.880[1] 1:34.922[2] -0.042 -4.387 18
34 1:35.089[1] 1:34.986[2] +0.103 -4.284 16
35 1:34.729[1] 1:35.493[2] -0.764 -5.048 19
36 1:34.812[1] 1:34.985[2] -0.173 -5.221 20
37 1:34.591[1] 1:35.235[2] -0.644 -5.865 21
38 1:34.597[1] 1:35.216[2] -0.619 -6.484 22
39 1:34.748[1] 1:35.206[2] -0.458 -6.942 23
40 1:34.800[1] 1:35.385[2] -0.585 -7.527 24


Once he realized that he was going to the end, his lap times seemed to slow down. It was an on the fly change of strategy, triggered by Kimi's retirement. And considering that fact, the job he did to keep Bottas behind should be applauded.


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