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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:18 am 
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The following is an unscientific attempt at ranking qualifying performance for 2017. I just looked at the timings, relied on some assumptions and watched qualifying session highlights on the official F1 website. I just went race by race and at the end averaged out the numbers and this is what I got...

I'd appreciate feedback on the ratings - It would have been better to do this race by race rather than depend so much on highlights, wiki pages and reminders.



Image


Few things:

Firstly, I went into this without any designs or expectations, looking to judge everything in isolation and as I could best judge it but nonetheless in the aftermath some things stuck out to me...



- For some reason, I've not awarded a score of higher than 7 for Ricciardo or Bottas for the entire season and something about that feels very off, especially for Ricciardo given how we rate him as a qualifier.

- The Ham-Vet averages are amazingly close, which didn't surprise me as such as I would suspect a small gap, but with a clear edge to Hamilton which isn't the case.

- The average for all 6 drivers comes up at above average (5 is the middle point). This makes sense as it's a judgment of what is on aggregate a collection of above average talent on the grid. I suspect if I extend this through the entire grid that the midfield driver group would generally average about bang on 5 and the group of who we consider to be the lesser drivers on the grid to average below 5.


Certainly an amateur attempt to say the least, but perhaps this can spark some interesting discussion and debate and also insight/corrections/problems etc.

The presentation is pretty crap but frankly I'm clueless in using Excel and presenting statistics and such in general but it's just a beginning.


Last edited by Invade on Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:24 am 
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don't know if it's my laptop but I'm not seeing an image?


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:31 am 
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Zoue wrote:
don't know if it's my laptop but I'm not seeing an image?



Does it work now on a refresh?


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:55 am 
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sadly not. maybe it's my work laptop. Will check when I get home this evening


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:13 am 
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The idea is good and should be persevered, but I question the accuracy of that ranking. While reading it I noticed you gave Verstappen a 3 in China when he had engine troubles, for example.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:15 am 
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Highly subjective, with more then "some" assumptions. The fact that you gave individual ratings for each race and then analyzed the data statistically doesn't hide the fact that it is more statement of opinion, then any sort of attempt of in depth performance analysis.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:26 am 
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Fantaribo wrote:
The idea is good and should be persevered, but I question the accuracy of that ranking. While reading it I noticed you gave Verstappen a 3 in China when he had engine troubles, for example.


Yes, there could be several oversights like this. Thanks for bringing it up.

motorfinger wrote:
Highly subjective, with more then "some" assumptions. The fact that you gave individual ratings for each race and then analyzed the data statistically doesn't hide the fact that it is more statement of opinion, then any sort of attempt of in depth performance analysis.


Yes - it's looking at the timing sheets and relative performance of team-mates while also considered who had the fastest car and cross-referencing positions between the teams (as well as also trying to use the closer midfield teams as further points of reference though it wasn't exhaustive). At the moment it's a snapshot impression of performance based on looking at those timings + the official F1 youtube highlights but it doesn't include much consideration for the weekend running and performance as it ramped up through free practice sessions and it doesn't present the pure data for qualifying gaps between team-mates and drivers. Rather, I've tried to extrapolate from that a level of performance through just one pair of eyes (of course) and the results are pretty nascent at the mo. Assumptions I had to make without knowing the truth generally revolve around figuring out what the maximum of the cars were on any given weekend (so who had the best car) and that's further made subjective when relying on assumptions of driver hierarchy to try and complete such a picture.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:12 pm 
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Well you are certainly honest about it, however it looks more or less like going full circle with nothing new produced, performance ratings based predominantly on driver hierarchy (car performance is same thing really), ultimately reflecting not much more then that hierarchy.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:22 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
Well you are certainly honest about it, however it looks more or less like going full circle with nothing new produced, performance ratings based predominantly on driver hierarchy (car performance is same thing really), ultimately reflecting not much more then that hierarchy.


I agree that there's nothing radical or fresh here and that even just producing tables of "objective" official qualifying timings (rather than presenting this subjective extrapolation of those timings and contexts) only presents what we all have access to anyway. There might be clever statistics and insights that could be derived but really I wouldn't know where to start. What I am going to do though is let this thread salivate for a bit and then in a day or so read all the responses, criticisms, and ideas and then ponder if anything useful can come of it and respond accordingly.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:53 pm 
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For starters here is a suggestion: get rid of nine decimal places, there is no need for that and it hurts my eyes :)


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:24 pm 
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Good effort but I must say I disagree with much of what I see here. The critical question is; what are you using to generate these numbers? What is the methodology used to actually rate a qualifying performance? I see no rhyme or reason to these rankings unfortunately.


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:25 pm 
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you have too much spare time

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:50 pm 
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motorfinger wrote:
For starters here is a suggestion: get rid of nine decimal places, there is no need for that and it hurts my eyes :)


Yes, its 10 decimals places or nothing for me too :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:43 pm 
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Good effort, but I think it suffers from that same old issue that subjectivity has to rear its ugly head at some point. For instance, I believe that Hamilton's Sepang pole was one of the best qualifying laps of the season, but you have scored it an 8/10 and used the assumption that Bottas underperformed.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:26 am 
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For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:06 am 
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paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:11 am 
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Laz_T800 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.

I'm not sure the stat regarding next best driver is relevant. How do we measure how much is down to the car itself? The time gap against a team mate is better IMO. Although I would suggest 2.3s can't be down to driver alone and there would probably be something else which accounts for at least some of the gap


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 11:35 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.

I'm not sure the stat regarding next best driver is relevant. How do we measure how much is down to the car itself? The time gap against a team mate is better IMO. Although I would suggest 2.3s can't be down to driver alone and there would probably be something else which accounts for at least some of the gap


I think both stats combined make it pretty special.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:04 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.

I'm not sure the stat regarding next best driver is relevant. How do we measure how much is down to the car itself? The time gap against a team mate is better IMO. Although I would suggest 2.3s can't be down to driver alone and there would probably be something else which accounts for at least some of the gap


I think both stats combined make it pretty special.

I think the first stat is completely irrelevant


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.

I'm not sure the stat regarding next best driver is relevant. How do we measure how much is down to the car itself? The time gap against a team mate is better IMO. Although I would suggest 2.3s can't be down to driver alone and there would probably be something else which accounts for at least some of the gap


I think both stats combined make it pretty special.

I think the first stat is completely irrelevant


Well it's not. It's completely trouncing the entire field. In a way the second stat validates the first. but even without that we know from practice and previous races that the gap between the Merc and the rest is not measured in seconds.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:39 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:

Being 1.15s faster than the next best driver and 2.3s faster than your team mate.
That's pretty special by any measure.

I'm not sure the stat regarding next best driver is relevant. How do we measure how much is down to the car itself? The time gap against a team mate is better IMO. Although I would suggest 2.3s can't be down to driver alone and there would probably be something else which accounts for at least some of the gap


I think both stats combined make it pretty special.

I think the first stat is completely irrelevant


Well it's not. It's completely trouncing the entire field. In a way the second stat validates the first. but even without that we know from practice and previous races that the gap between the Merc and the rest is not measured in seconds.

it is. Throughout qualifying Lewis had a massive advantage over any other car, even in Q1. Now, of course it could mean he put in three unbelievably stellar laps in each session, but how often does that happen? Bottas was actually quicker than him in Q1, and even then the next quickest car was more than a second up the road. All of which points to the Mercedes having a massive advantage there

Now I'm not saying he didn't drive a great lap, but the gap to other cars is in no way evidence of that, given the massive advantage Mercedes enjoyed in every session


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:04 pm 
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paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


He made a mistake in the last corner in Malaysia on his quickest run but the banker was good enough to beat Kimi who made the same mistake on his last run too. Bit like Austin the strength of the banker got him it. For me...

Canada
Monza
GB
Baku

Would be the best from Lewis and come before Malaysia. I think because Red Bull were quicker on Sunday they see the 0.500 to the Bulls and think belter but it wasn't really. Both Bull boys put in a better lap. Mercs pace disappeared on Sunday because they couldn't extrapolate that pace over a stint without cooking their rear tyres so Lewis couldn't push like he could for 1 lap so the Red Bulls were much quicker in the race but quali was completely different.

Best of the season for me is one from Canada,Monza for Lewis. Spain for Alonso. Monaco for Bottas (Way underrated in the OP). Vettel in Mexico or Singapore. Max in Spa or Spain. Can't pick one just now.

One of Hulks probably deserve a spot and Dan had Bahrain which was probably his best. Can't give Kimi's in Monaco as I think they were more than 0.050 ahead of Merc there and Seb lost a couple of tenths in T5 which would have given a more realistic gap for Ferrari there.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:59 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


He made a mistake in the last corner in Malaysia on his quickest run but the banker was good enough to beat Kimi who made the same mistake on his last run too. Bit like Austin the strength of the banker got him it. For me...

Canada
Monza
GB
Baku

Would be the best from Lewis and come before Malaysia. I think because Red Bull were quicker on Sunday they see the 0.500 to the Bulls and think belter but it wasn't really. Both Bull boys put in a better lap. Mercs pace disappeared on Sunday because they couldn't extrapolate that pace over a stint without cooking their rear tyres so Lewis couldn't push like he could for 1 lap so the Red Bulls were much quicker in the race but quali was completely different.

Best of the season for me is one from Canada,Monza for Lewis. Spain for Alonso. Monaco for Bottas (Way underrated in the OP). Vettel in Mexico or Singapore. Max in Spa or Spain. Can't pick one just now.

One of Hulks probably deserve a spot and Dan had Bahrain which was probably his best. Can't give Kimi's in Monaco as I think they were more than 0.050 ahead of Merc there and Seb lost a couple of tenths in T5 which would have given a more realistic gap for Ferrari there.

The lap in Malaysia was actually one of his best (even with the slight bobble at the end). The car was well off the pace there and he beat his teammate by 0.7 seconds (would probably have been 1-2 tenths quicker without the last corner). Crazy lap. Also Japan was a totally perfect lap. Watch the onboard video of it and find any way he could have gone quicker.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:23 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


He made a mistake in the last corner in Malaysia on his quickest run but the banker was good enough to beat Kimi who made the same mistake on his last run too. Bit like Austin the strength of the banker got him it. For me...

Canada
Monza
GB
Baku

Would be the best from Lewis and come before Malaysia. I think because Red Bull were quicker on Sunday they see the 0.500 to the Bulls and think belter but it wasn't really. Both Bull boys put in a better lap. Mercs pace disappeared on Sunday because they couldn't extrapolate that pace over a stint without cooking their rear tyres so Lewis couldn't push like he could for 1 lap so the Red Bulls were much quicker in the race but quali was completely different.

Best of the season for me is one from Canada,Monza for Lewis. Spain for Alonso. Monaco for Bottas (Way underrated in the OP). Vettel in Mexico or Singapore. Max in Spa or Spain. Can't pick one just now.

One of Hulks probably deserve a spot and Dan had Bahrain which was probably his best. Can't give Kimi's in Monaco as I think they were more than 0.050 ahead of Merc there and Seb lost a couple of tenths in T5 which would have given a more realistic gap for Ferrari there.

The lap in Malaysia was actually one of his best (even with the slight bobble at the end). The car was well off the pace there and he beat his teammate by 0.7 seconds (would probably have been 1-2 tenths quicker without the last corner). Crazy lap. Also Japan was a totally perfect lap. Watch the onboard video of it and find any way he could have gone quicker.


I can't agree that leaving a couple of tenths on the table with a mistake can be one of the best and it was still well clear of RB on the Saturday so his competition was Kimi who you rate as the worst driver on the grid and the banker was only 2ths quicker in itself. Kimi then made the same mistake in the last corner and blew pole. Kīmi and Lewis made the same error and lost the same amount at the same spot as Alonso did but Stoff was good enough to punish it whereas Bottas was still nowhere near. That says more about Bottas tbh and how bad his form has been and obviously Seb wasn't there to punish Kimi.


He had a lot of great qualies this year, Japan amongst them, I was just listing what I felt was the best and I wouldn't put Japan there with those but its all subjective really. This could be one of the best quali seasons for Lewis imo. The best thing about it has been the strength of his banker laps. They've been good enough on their own for pole multiple times and has allowed him to be very aggressive on his last flyer which has resulted in some spectacular laps like Canada and GB but has also bit him in Malaysia and Austin with errors but the banker was still strong enough for pole.

I know it might sound harsh picking on these small mistakes but I did the same for Seb early in the season when I felt he made mistakes in Q3 and could have got pole like in Oz,Spain,Monaco and Canada and I do the same for all top drivers as we get to see their runs over and over again.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:00 pm 
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Lotus49 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:
paramex wrote:
For me, I saw the only 10 is for Italian quali.
I did not see anything special in Lewis performance to get the only 10.
His Malaysia quali is better if not the best of the season.


He made a mistake in the last corner in Malaysia on his quickest run but the banker was good enough to beat Kimi who made the same mistake on his last run too. Bit like Austin the strength of the banker got him it. For me...

Canada
Monza
GB
Baku

Would be the best from Lewis and come before Malaysia. I think because Red Bull were quicker on Sunday they see the 0.500 to the Bulls and think belter but it wasn't really. Both Bull boys put in a better lap. Mercs pace disappeared on Sunday because they couldn't extrapolate that pace over a stint without cooking their rear tyres so Lewis couldn't push like he could for 1 lap so the Red Bulls were much quicker in the race but quali was completely different.

Best of the season for me is one from Canada,Monza for Lewis. Spain for Alonso. Monaco for Bottas (Way underrated in the OP). Vettel in Mexico or Singapore. Max in Spa or Spain. Can't pick one just now.

One of Hulks probably deserve a spot and Dan had Bahrain which was probably his best. Can't give Kimi's in Monaco as I think they were more than 0.050 ahead of Merc there and Seb lost a couple of tenths in T5 which would have given a more realistic gap for Ferrari there.

The lap in Malaysia was actually one of his best (even with the slight bobble at the end). The car was well off the pace there and he beat his teammate by 0.7 seconds (would probably have been 1-2 tenths quicker without the last corner). Crazy lap. Also Japan was a totally perfect lap. Watch the onboard video of it and find any way he could have gone quicker.


I can't agree that leaving a couple of tenths on the table with a mistake can be one of the best and it was still well clear of RB on the Saturday so his competition was Kimi who you rate as the worst driver on the grid and the banker was only 2ths quicker in itself. Kimi then made the same mistake in the last corner and blew pole. Kīmi and Lewis made the same error and lost the same amount at the same spot as Alonso did but Stoff was good enough to punish it whereas Bottas was still nowhere near. That says more about Bottas tbh and how bad his form has been and obviously Seb wasn't there to punish Kimi.


He had a lot of great qualies this year, Japan amongst them, I was just listing what I felt was the best and I wouldn't put Japan there with those but its all subjective really. This could be one of the best quali seasons for Lewis imo. The best thing about it has been the strength of his banker laps. They've been good enough on their own for pole multiple times and has allowed him to be very aggressive on his last flyer which has resulted in some spectacular laps like Canada and GB but has also bit him in Malaysia and Austin with errors but the banker was still strong enough for pole.

I know it might sound harsh picking on these small mistakes but I did the same for Seb early in the season when I felt he made mistakes in Q3 and could have got pole like in Oz,Spain,Monaco and Canada and I do the same for all top drivers as we get to see their runs over and over again.

Mistakes are too often the only thing that fans look for. How much time a driver gains through being quicker than the next guy is vastly more important. Anyway, I wasn't trying to argue really. Just making a point. He did a lap that was way outside of the norm in Malaysia.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:02 pm 
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Fair enough :thumbup:

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:49 am 
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I don't think giving Hamilton and Vettel both 8s for Spa is defensible when Vettel needed a tow to get even as close as he did. I'd probably give him a 7. Without a tow, it was Raikkonen who actually looked like he could get pole outright, but his customary errors precluded that. As far as Spain goes, are we grading them against the car's speculated performance ceiling only or also in terms of who competed best with their lap--a consideration that should come into play when there's nothing in it between different teams' vehicles, as was the case in Barcelona. Vettel's slight mistake towards the end of his lap decided things there. Should he then have the same score as Hamilton? I have much the same reservation with Malaysia except there the Ferrari's speculated ceiling was also higher than that of the Mercedes. So Raikkonen messed up more and got less out of his vehicle but he got the same score as Hamilton? I think both Hamilton and Vettel deserve 8s for the USA, you could probably give Vettel a 9 really, his was as impressive a last gasp effort as his Mexico lap, its just that his car couldn't bridge the remaining gap. In Mexico Verstappen probably had two to three tenths more he could squeeze out of his car and Hamilton the same but Verstappen is graded 3 points higher, even when he did not improve from Q2 to Q3?


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:06 am 
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Hamiltons had 11 poles, Vettel 4 and they both have 6.8 rankings?!

I dont see anything fact based just opinions.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:02 am 
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This generated more discussion than I expected. I've read all the comments which have provided me with useful reminders and details, such as the errors from Lewis and Kimi in Malaysia.

I did this exercise as a series of snapshot impressions (so I did miss details for sure) as a. I just wanted a starting point before going deep and b. I wanted as unaffected and unchanged a result as possible and as such, no scores have been changed and it's a pure undoctored first look. I'll keep the original up and update the OP with adjusted scores based on doing a second pass and taking into account details I missed.

Regarding Monza, I wasn't really sure how else to judge it given the relative performance of the drivers. At the time Monza happened I wasn't exactly like OMGZ BEST QUALI EVER but when doing this exercise it was the only lap that stood out in terms of performance and on the timing sheets.

I can see how I might have undervalued Bottas' Monaco lap and thought about that at the time also and I think it's a case of letting perception colour the reality too much and generally seeing Bottas as a guy who hasn't performed so well this year I probably erred on the side of negativity leading to a score of 7 over say 8 or even 9.

Singapore was difficult for me to judge regarding Hamilton and Bottas and I did again err on the side of negativity and with the assumption that the Mercedes is still a very strong car, albeit on a weaker circuit for them, that Bottas underperformed and that Hamilton didn't extract anything special out of the car, though he was very good.

The tow that Vettel got for his Spa qualifying is another detail I missed which changes the perception and regarding Mexico and Verstappen, I felt he did a fantastic job (well stumbled upon) in finding a solution for getting the tires to work correctly. Clearly it was very difficult for Red Bull and Mercedes but Max stumbled into a solution and made more or less the best of it while absolutely demolishing his team-mate on the day and getting close to pole. Vettel's lap was very good although I was going to give him 8 instead of 9 because I'm not really sure he did a better job than Max given the circumstances, but ultimately he did put in a spotless lap (turn 6? but no lost time) and nailed it under pressure from Max, making maximum use of his one qualy run with the most powerful engine mode. I guess that even though technically speaking Vettel's lap was better, I feel like both deserve the same score for their productivity so either both 8 or both 9.

There are more comments and details to respond to but I'll leave it there for now.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:05 am 
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Zazu wrote:
Hamiltons had 11 poles, Vettel 4 and they both have 6.8 rankings?!

I dont see anything fact based just opinions.



Well, who had the fastest qualifying package over the course of the season? I don't know the answer but generally held the assumption that, for the most part, Merc had an edge.

Hamilton does have more standout performances than Vettel over the season according to the results of the first pass (7 vs 4 performances of 8/10 or better).

It does still appear odd and wrong to me also that not a single "excellent" score has been attributed to Ricciardo or Bottas.


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:07 am 
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Zazu wrote:
Hamiltons had 11 poles, Vettel 4 and they both have 6.8 rankings?!

I dont see anything fact based just opinions.

I don't think the number of poles should necessarily affect the driver rankings. You can only work with the equipment you have


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:08 am 
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Also I've learned a lot about Excel since uploading that (lol!).

At the time I didn't even know how to reduce the decimal places because of how the sum function worked hence the giant numbers. I've also figured out how to make graphs including with rolling averages of performance, which yields some pretty interesting looking results but that's all hidden away on the computer for the moment.

***

I do think Hamilton has been a bit better than Vettel in qualifying this season, meaning that as of Mexico I felt Hamilton was the best qualifier of the season but that might be due to a bias of being impressed with the most standout qualifying performances (which I do think Hamilton has had more of this year) but also the results back-up the idea that he's more up and down and a bit more volatile than Vettel, who still averages roughly the same score and has a slightly more even performance.


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