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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:50 pm 
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as long as merc keep reliability good and they can be massively good at this when a title is staring at them and lewis just needs to keep calm , and its something he is so good at and i'm sure last sunday will have underlined that to him


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:12 pm 
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Teddy007 wrote:
What's the possibility that:

Lewis will make a mistake during qualifying and end up missing out on Q3.
Lewis making a mistake resulting in a crash.
Some one else makes a mistake resulting in a crash and taking Lewis out.
Lewis gets penalties for his mistakes or reliability.
A single DNF and even if Seb doesn't win - it closes the gap.


1. Possible, but he will make it to the front few positions by end of race
2. Unlikely, when was the last time he crashed during a race?
3. Unlikely, fairly rare occasion for title contenders to be taken out by others I'd say?
4. Unlikely for mistakes. Possibly for reliability, still will make it to the front of a race with penalty.
5. True, but with circuits generally in favor of Mercedes closing the gap won't do much... Needs more than just 1 DNF or misfortune for Hamilton.

Also, all of the above as likely for Vettel as it is for Hamilton.

Net likeliness: not that high. Anything can happen, but chances on a Hamilton title must be over 75% by now.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:11 pm 
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Probably.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:25 pm 
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mds wrote:
Teddy007 wrote:
What's the possibility that:

Lewis will make a mistake during qualifying and end up missing out on Q3.
Lewis making a mistake resulting in a crash.
Some one else makes a mistake resulting in a crash and taking Lewis out.
Lewis gets penalties for his mistakes or reliability.
A single DNF and even if Seb doesn't win - it closes the gap.


1. Possible, but he will make it to the front few positions by end of race
2. Unlikely, when was the last time he crashed during a race?
3. Unlikely, fairly rare occasion for title contenders to be taken out by others I'd say?
4. Unlikely for mistakes. Possibly for reliability, still will make it to the front of a race with penalty.
5. True, but with circuits generally in favor of Mercedes closing the gap won't do much... Needs more than just 1 DNF or misfortune for Hamilton.

Also, all of the above as likely for Vettel as it is for Hamilton.

Net likeliness: not that high. Anything can happen, but chances on a Hamilton title must be over 75% by now.


Agreed. And as I keep coming back to, even if one or two of those things happens and he fails to score points in two races and Seb wins both, all Lewis has to do is win the other four races and he'll be crowned WDC. Alternatively, if Bottas won the two races where Lewis fails to score then at absolute most, Lewis would just have to outscore Seb by nine points across the other four races. For Seb to win the WDC, he's going to need Lewis to suffer a sequence of bad results unlike anything else he has had in the hybrid era.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 4:52 pm 
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mds wrote:

Also, all of the above as likely for Vettel as it is for Hamilton.


This. Vettel now has to have a 100% flawless end to his season. Not an easy task as the intensity of each race is only going to go higher and higher.

Vettel has dug himself an enormous hole to climb out of. I think he has very little chance to overcome his points deficit.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:10 pm 
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mds wrote:
Net likeliness: not that high. Anything can happen, but chances on a Hamilton title must be over 75% by now.

The bookies think it's more than that; you can't get better than 1/7 for a Hamilton victory at this point, as far as a quick look tells me.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:42 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mds wrote:
Net likeliness: not that high. Anything can happen, but chances on a Hamilton title must be over 75% by now.

The bookies think it's more than that; you can't get better than 1/7 for a Hamilton victory at this point, as far as a quick look tells me.


I have no idea how to translate that to how likely the bookies see it :)

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:05 pm 
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mds wrote:
Exediron wrote:
mds wrote:
Net likeliness: not that high. Anything can happen, but chances on a Hamilton title must be over 75% by now.

The bookies think it's more than that; you can't get better than 1/7 for a Hamilton victory at this point, as far as a quick look tells me.

I have no idea how to translate that to how likely the bookies see it :)

If that's how likely they actually think it is (which isn't a given, since the odds will be influenced by how people are betting) it would be 7 to 1 in favor of a Hamilton victory, or about 86%.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:12 pm 
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The Ferrari's need to hold back in qualifying and let MAX get up close to Lewis for the rest of the starts. :twisted:


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:44 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Agreed on that, Max doesn't give a damn whether the person he is racing is a title contender, he will race hard with Hamilton or Vettel if he gets the chance to, he could still have a big impact on the championship.


Good, I don't see why it should be that the other drivers take account of the Championship. They are there to race and part of that is knowing that the guy in the other car has more to lose than you, and therefore shouldn't take the risk of fighting you too hard if you are fast enough to challenge him - as long as you're not doing something reckless or stupid I don't see that as an issue.

I've never understood this idea that the rest of the drivers should hang back and let the two contenders go head to head, they should drive the same in the last race as the first. After all, if Vettel headed into the last race needing a win with Hamilton off the podium to take the WDC then the other drivers letting him by would be 'gifting' him the title.

Unfortunately the FIA don't seem to take that view, it will be interesting to see how they deal with Max if he gets into a collision with Hamilton or Vettel and decides the championship. Especially as Max is the golden boy of F1 right now, and Max knows it and isn't afraid to make his case to the media.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:35 pm 
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It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:28 am 
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da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:39 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.
He doesn't normally run people off the track, no. I would still like Mr Whiting to explain to us (not just the drivers) which rule allows that. I don't think I've ever read one that does.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:23 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
It's not over but it has given a big opportunity to Hamilton.

Vettel wasn't thinking of the title when he moved over on Verstappen. He was thinking of being first through turn 1.

Anything could happen in the next few races. Hamilton could have an engine failure, a crash or any number of possibilities.

Vettel really needs to screw his head back on and start to collect points. He needs to maximise every chance between now and the end of the season.

Before Monaco last year, Rosberg lead Hamilton by 43 points. Just 4 races later that was down to 1 point. Things can change quickly.

Vettel could also have an engine failure, he hasn't had one too this season. There are any number of possibilities of misfortune happening to Vettel as they might to Hamilton since it's not an actual law.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:15 am 
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Fiki wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.
He doesn't normally run people off the track, no. I would still like Mr Whiting to explain to us (not just the drivers) which rule allows that. I don't think I've ever read one that does.


Going by what is sanctioned and what is not, it is pretty clear that most of the drivers know what is allowed (if not by the rules themselves, then by the stewards). This should give Kimi some hints.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:02 am 
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mds wrote:
Fiki wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.
He doesn't normally run people off the track, no. I would still like Mr Whiting to explain to us (not just the drivers) which rule allows that. I don't think I've ever read one that does.


Going by what is sanctioned and what is not, it is pretty clear that most of the drivers know what is allowed (if not by the rules themselves, then by the stewards). This should give Kimi some hints.


It's been repeated and repeated and repeated on here... but every driver seems to know the 'take the racing line through the corner and push the other driver off through the exit of the corner' trick. Nobody ever gets penalised.

Whether the rules are written perfectly, or we interpret them perfectly, the drivers certainly know how they are or aren't enforced. I'd guess the drivers briefings etc go a long way to clarifying this for them.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:16 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.
He doesn't normally run people off the track, no. I would still like Mr Whiting to explain to us (not just the drivers) which rule allows that. I don't think I've ever read one that does.


He barely mount's any defence what so ever. You can defend without pushing someone off the track.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:06 am 
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The last time I recall Kimi doing some very successful and precise aggressive offense and defense was Spa 2009. Whatever happened to that fireball of a racer ?!!

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:19 am 
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mds wrote:
Fiki wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
da4an1qu1 wrote:
It's done. Ferrari just don't get it. Persevering with Raikkonen the so long has sealed their fate. For any chance they need their number two to harrass and harangue Hamilton. Get in front and force Lewis into potentially taking damage. But Raikkonen is just not up to the task.


The problem Ferrari have with Kimi is that he seems completely uninterested in defending his position on track. So even if they manage to get Kimi ahead by not pitting him or whatever Hamilton can blow by in about 3 corners. He's not much help to Vettel there.
He doesn't normally run people off the track, no. I would still like Mr Whiting to explain to us (not just the drivers) which rule allows that. I don't think I've ever read one that does.


Going by what is sanctioned and what is not, it is pretty clear that most of the drivers know what is allowed (if not by the rules themselves, then by the stewards). This should give Kimi some hints.
You would think so, wouldn't you? And yet, Charlie Whiting had to be asked to clarify why Verstappen wasn't given a penalty for his accident with his own team-mate in Hungary, and why others were. If you recall the clarification, it was based on something that isn't actually in the rules every F1 driver is supposed to know by heart.

How can a driver prepare for a defence, if the stewards and race control explanation is not documented?

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:48 am 
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Fiki wrote:
You would think so, wouldn't you? And yet, Charlie Whiting had to be asked to clarify why Verstappen wasn't given a penalty for his accident with his own team-mate in Hungary, and why others were. If you recall the clarification, it was based on something that isn't actually in the rules every F1 driver is supposed to know by heart.

How can a driver prepare for a defence, if the stewards and race control explanation is not documented?


Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.

Drivers know they can go off-line to defend and they know they can push drivers outwards in the corner when ahead. If Kimi would start doing those two things, he'll put up a much harder defense than he does now and he knows it'll go unpunished.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:11 am 
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mds wrote:
Fiki wrote:
You would think so, wouldn't you? And yet, Charlie Whiting had to be asked to clarify why Verstappen wasn't given a penalty for his accident with his own team-mate in Hungary, and why others were. If you recall the clarification, it was based on something that isn't actually in the rules every F1 driver is supposed to know by heart.

How can a driver prepare for a defence, if the stewards and race control explanation is not documented?


Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.

Drivers know they can go off-line to defend and they know they can push drivers outwards in the corner when ahead. If Kimi would start doing those two things, he'll put up a much harder defense than he does now and he knows it'll go unpunished.
You see? Already you have forgotten the explanation given at the time. There was a condition that was mentioned, and that condition is nowhere to be found in the rules.

And that's not even taking into account the difficulty of making sure your defence meets that condition every time. If not...

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:02 pm 
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mas wrote:
The last time I recall Kimi doing some very successful and precise aggressive offense and defense was Spa 2009. Whatever happened to that fireball of a racer ?!!

I can recall a few since :-P

https://youtu.be/dsKxahsDA-M



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:50 pm 
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Fiki wrote:
mds wrote:
Fiki wrote:
You would think so, wouldn't you? And yet, Charlie Whiting had to be asked to clarify why Verstappen wasn't given a penalty for his accident with his own team-mate in Hungary, and why others were. If you recall the clarification, it was based on something that isn't actually in the rules every F1 driver is supposed to know by heart.

How can a driver prepare for a defence, if the stewards and race control explanation is not documented?


Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.

Drivers know they can go off-line to defend and they know they can push drivers outwards in the corner when ahead. If Kimi would start doing those two things, he'll put up a much harder defense than he does now and he knows it'll go unpunished.
You see? Already you have forgotten the explanation given at the time. There was a condition that was mentioned, and that condition is nowhere to be found in the rules.

And that's not even taking into account the difficulty of making sure your defence meets that condition every time. If not...


You focused on the wrong part.

This was the key part: Drivers know they can go off-line to defend and they know they can push drivers outwards in the corner when ahead. If Kimi would start doing those two things, he'll put up a much harder defense than he does now and he knows it'll go unpunished.

You cannot refute this part. He doesn't have to go "Max-Hungary-style". Just the bit above.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:52 pm 
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mds wrote:
Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.


Sorry, you think Ricciardo was equally at fault?

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:57 pm 
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ALESI wrote:
mds wrote:
Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.


Sorry, you think Ricciardo was equally at fault?


Put very short: no. :)

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:34 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
mas wrote:
The last time I recall Kimi doing some very successful and precise aggressive offense and defense was Spa 2009. Whatever happened to that fireball of a racer ?!!

I can recall a few since :-P

https://youtu.be/dsKxahsDA-M


Placid compared to that Spa performance but still very good. Ahh, Schumacher had some great battles in 2012 and went out as he came in, racing hard. Shame he never saw the competitive hybrid Mercedes and never raced against Hamilton in the same team. If onlys ... :(

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:21 pm 
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mds wrote:
ALESI wrote:
mds wrote:
Not comparable. The two RBR teammates actually hit each other, and I'm pretty sure Verstappen didn't have the intention to do so.


Sorry, you think Ricciardo was equally at fault?


Put very short: no. :)


Okay then, carry on.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:33 pm 
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And now its done, too many variables have to go wrong now for lewis to lose. We all knew reliability & mid season development would be ferraris achilles heal. Ferrari are clearly pushing the limit on there engines to try and stay competitive causing there equipment to suffer reliability issues.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:46 pm 
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Vettel you can get at 35/1 now, Bottas 750/1 and Hamilton, the best you can get is 1/41

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:42 am 
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Mayhem wrote:
And now its done, too many variables have to go wrong now for lewis to lose. We all knew reliability & mid season development would be ferraris achilles heal. Ferrari are clearly pushing the limit on there engines to try and stay competitive causing there equipment to suffer reliability issues.


In a way, their post-summer break form has been encouraging. They have now shown they can develop and stay in the race throughout the season. This year is done and dusted, my hope now is that they carry this with them for next year.

I also hope Renault's Q3 mode that Horner and Abiteboul are saying Renault is working on will stand up to whatever Ferrari and Mercedes have. Would be nice to see RBR in the mix more.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:59 am 
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mds wrote:
I also hope Renault's Q3 mode that Horner and Abiteboul are saying Renault is working on will stand up to whatever Ferrari and Mercedes have. Would be nice to see RBR in the mix more.

And McLaren!

No, 2013-2017 has not crushed my optimism yet. I'm fully hoping for and expecting a good, competitive year in 2018! :o

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:02 am 
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Exediron wrote:
mds wrote:
I also hope Renault's Q3 mode that Horner and Abiteboul are saying Renault is working on will stand up to whatever Ferrari and Mercedes have. Would be nice to see RBR in the mix more.

And McLaren!

No, 2013-2017 has not crushed my optimism yet. I'm fully hoping for and expecting a good, competitive year in 2018! :o


Well, Ferrari's resurgence and the very real battle we had until three races ago has made me optimistic that even in the short term we could have a title battle until the end of the season. So I share that optimism.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:43 am 
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Realistically Its over, Ferrari need two wipeouts in 4 races and still need need to win without any reliability problems of their own. Given Mercedes reliabilirty thats unlikely. There is a point where mathematical possibilities get overtaken by statistical probability. We are past there now.

Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC of course it has nothing to do with Hamilton's and Mercedes abilities to win it.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:48 am 
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Exediron wrote:
If that's how likely they actually think it is (which isn't a given, since the odds will be influenced by how people are betting) it would be 7 to 1 in favor of a Hamilton victory, or about 86%.


Playing a lot of Xcom 2 recently, 86% chance to win suddenly feels very uncomfortable!


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:27 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC


Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:55 am 
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mds wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC


Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.


I think the comparison being made was -

Vettel: Singapore 25, Baku 13, Silverstone 6 = 44
Car: Malaysia 13, Japan 18, Silverstone 6 = 37

Hamilton: Russia 13, Monaco 9, Hungary 3 = 25
Car: Baku 15, Austria 6 = 21

This is points lost due to driver and car. Vettel has 6 for both each in Silverstone due to the car being capable of 2nd and him not getting that in part due to tyre and under performance. He would have been 4th without the tyre issue. Hamilton is put as losing 6 points in Austia, assuming he would have got 2nd, as its debatable if he had won or been 3rd without the gearbox penalty, so went for in between the two.

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Last edited by lamo on Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:02 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Realistically Its over, Ferrari need two wipeouts in 4 races and still need need to win without any reliability problems of their own. Given Mercedes reliabilirty thats unlikely. There is a point where mathematical possibilities get overtaken by statistical probability. We are past there now.

Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC of course it has nothing to do with Hamilton's and Mercedes abilities to win it.

Yeah, we need a driver/car package that has only been good enough to win 1 out of the last 10 races to come to life and win 4 on the spin, while a car/driver package that has won 5 out of the last 7 now needs to sink to bring 3rd best and finish no higher than 5th, or for the hitherto bulletproof Mercedes engine to suddenly start repeatedly self-destructing.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:51 pm 
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lamo wrote:
mds wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
Time for a thread on whether it was Vettel's or Ferrari's fault they lost their opportunity to win the WDC


Would that really be in doubt? 13 points in Baku, and then even if you count Singapore you're getting 38 points max that Vettel could have done better. But if you do that, then add 13 (Russia) and 6 (Monaco) for Hamilton. End result, 4 races to go and Vettel still 40 behind.


I think the comparison being made was -

Vettel: Singapore 25, Baku 13, Silverstone 6 = 44
Car: Malaysia 13, Japan 18, Silverstone 6 = 37

Hamilton: Russia 13, Monaco 9, Hungary 3 = 25
Car: Baku 15, Austria 6 = 21

This is points lost due to driver and car. Vettel has 6 for both each in Silverstone due to the car being capable of 2nd and him not getting that in part due to tyre and under performance. He would have been 4th without the tyre issue. Hamilton is put as losing 6 points in Austia, assuming he would have got 2nd, as its debatable if he had won or been 3rd without the gearbox penalty, so went for in between the two.

Hamilton should also have won in Bahrain if he hadn't allowed himself to get mugged at the start. And it's arguable that he made an error in Australia, since afterwards Toto said his tyres were fine and he didn't need to come in when he did. So in all that would be an extra 14 points for him and 14 points lost for Vettel


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:13 pm 
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Bahrain is debatable, his DRS didn't open on his qualifying lap on the back straight or run over the line which would have given him pole and likely the win. Even if Vettel didn't overtake him at the start, the race would have played out the same as Mercedes give the lead car the pit preference and he would have had to stack and be behind Ricciardo or do what he did.

Australia, he did make an error with regards to tyre life but its equally the teams job to monitor his pace relative to others and most importantly his position on track to other cars and to pit him into clean air, something the driver has no idea about as we saw in Monaco 2015 too. Hamilton was still the fastest man on track when "his tyres were going" in Australia.

We have heard numerous times this year and over the last years Hamilton complaining about something on the car (usually tyres) and the team come back to him and say "you are easily the fastest man on track, relax" like Horner said just the last race "Hamilton is very prone to get excited on the radio as soon as the balance of the car changes a little - you can't read too much into those types of message". But I agree, both Mercedes and Hamilton were panicked a bit that race, its the first time in 3 years they actually had to consider the strategy of another team and were rusty. Ultimately that race was decided entirely by when Verstappen chose to pit and if the car who pitted first out of Hamilton and Vettel got stuck behind him for a significant amount of time. Mercedes data said Hamilton would be able to pass Verstappen too, which changes everything.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:25 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Bahrain is debatable, his DRS didn't open on his qualifying lap on the back straight or run over the line which would have given him pole and likely the win. Even if Vettel didn't overtake him at the start, the race would have played out the same as Mercedes give the lead car the pit preference and he would have had to stack and be behind Ricciardo or do what he did.

Australia, he did make an error with regards to tyre life but its equally the teams job to monitor his pace relative to others and most importantly his position on track to other cars and to pit him into clean air, something the driver has no idea about as we saw in Monaco 2015 too. Hamilton was still the fastest man on track when "his tyres were going" in Australia.

We have heard numerous times this year and over the last years Hamilton complaining about something on the car (usually tyres) and the team come back to him and say "you are easily the fastest man on track, relax" like Horner said just the last race "Hamilton is very prone to get excited on the radio as soon as the balance of the car changes a little - you can't read too much into those types of message". But I agree, both Mercedes and Hamilton were panicked a bit that race, its the first time in 3 years they actually had to consider the strategy of another team and were rusty. Ultimately that race was decided entirely by when Verstappen chose to pit and if the car who pitted first out of Hamilton and Vettel got stuck behind him for a significant amount of time. Mercedes data said Hamilton would be able to pass Verstappen too, which changes everything.

I'm not beating him with a stick about it, but when previous posts have put Vettel's potential lost points under the microscope then it's only fair that the same happens with everyone else. I disagree only a little about Bahrain. Even Toto said that Lewis being behind Seb compromised their strategy and they couldn't do what they wanted. If he'd stayed ahead it may have panned out completely differently.

Overall though I think the mistakes were minor, not the result of poor driving. I just think they are worth analysing when determining what the maximum possible points outcome for each driver may have been


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