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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:20 am 
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After all that happened yesterday, the net result is that Lewis Hamilton is now 28 points clear of Vettel in the standings. There isn't a track remaining that is considered to be a weak one for Mercedes, and even if there was it wouldn't be to the extent that Singapore was. Lewis is in a position where he just needs to win four of the six remaining races and he'll be celebrating his fourth WDC no matter what else happens.

Obviously Seb can still win the WDC, but realistically is it now game over for his chances of winning the title this year?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:24 am 
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No not at all it only takes one Hamilton DNF and it's all square again near enough, I think if you get 50+ points in front then you can start talking in those terms.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:25 am 
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If Hamilton does not DNF then it will be extremely difficult for Vettel to win the title.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:28 am 
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Not over by a long shot.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:30 am 
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Everything seems to have gone Lewis' way since the summer break.

Lewis will take his 4th championship this year. It's his to lose.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:37 am 
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All this 'the title is over' stuff came about through ONE DNF. What are the odds of any front line driver completing a season without a DNF?


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:39 am 
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pokerman wrote:
No not at all it only takes one Hamilton DNF and it's all square again near enough, I think if you get 50+ points in front then you can start talking in those terms.


And a Vettel win to go with that DNF


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:40 am 
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No.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:44 am 
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BeOnEdge wrote:
Everything seems to have gone Lewis' way since the summer break.

Lewis will take his 4th championship this year. It's his to lose.

What's actually gone his way is that we have had rain in the last 2 meetings, qualifying and the race, one or two more rain affected weekends and I think it would very much seal it for Hamilton.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:51 am 
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Yep, that's that.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:03 am 
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moby wrote:
All this 'the title is over' stuff came about through ONE DNF. What are the odds of any front line driver completing a season without a DNF?


I don't agree, its more that Vettel is 28 points behind and has won 1 race in 8. Hamilton has won 5 of those 8 and should have won 6 of them if not for his head rest issue. Mercedes has 6 wins over that period which could be 7.

Bottas has also now out scored Vettel over the last 11 races (a period that includes them both having 1 DNF) and in the last 8 races has finished ahead of him 6-2. So even Bottas is likely to take lots of points from Vettel in the remaining 6 races and is just 23 points behind him, if these tracks suit Mercedes he could get 2nd in the WDC himself.

If Mercedes can 1-2 a race or two it makes it very hard for Vettel even if Lewis has a DNF. Ferrari need a big turn around and some luck.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:04 am 
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Not at all, especially coming in to the tail end of the season where reliability of parts that have done multiple races is going to start to stack up. A DNF for Hamilton and a decent points haul for Vettel would bring him right back into the mix. To be honest I'm surprised people are talking like this is a done deal with six races to go and a 28 point margin. Hell just this season we've seen the Merc lose a load of points thanks to an unsecured head restraint. Ferrari look to be pretty much identical to Merc on overall pace with variations favouring one team or the other depending on track and conditions.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:05 am 
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That's it.

Not just because of that crash, but because Mercedes is clearly a better car. Ferrari again lost the development race, in the usual manner.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:09 am 
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Lt. Drebin wrote:
That's it.

Not just because of that crash, but because Mercedes is clearly a better car. Ferrari again lost the development race, in the usual manner.


^ This.

Ferrari, before yesterday, have been in this championship battle by the slightest of threads. Mercedes has had more engine power and far better development. Hamilton would be even further in the lead if it were not for that bizarre headrest problem he had.

This battle is not over yet of course. Anything can happen. But we are well past the time where Ferrari can win this by themselves. They need an enormous amount of luck to have a serious chance. Ferrari have not developed their car and have a driver that makes mistakes not becoming of a world title contender. There simply was no need for Vettel's drastic chop to start the race. His lack of confidence drove him to make such a drastic mistake.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:29 am 
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I think it is, yes. Of course, it's still possible for Vettel to win (see Kimi in 2007), but he'd need an awful lot of luck. The Mercedes is the better car, so only misfortune for Lewis would see Vettel get a look in. The title is to a large extent out of his hands


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:13 pm 
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Herb Tarlik wrote:
Ferrari, before yesterday, have been in this championship battle by the slightest of threads. Mercedes has had more engine power and far better development. Hamilton would be even further in the lead if it were not for that bizarre headrest problem he had.


I don't even think Ferrari has had worse development. I think Mercedes couldn't always unlock their true pace in the beginning of the season - but they have gotten on top of their issues and they can now pretty much always unlock the potential.

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There simply was no need for Vettel's drastic chop to start the race. His lack of confidence drove him to make such a drastic mistake.


Covering off a driver on the inside like that is not a drastic chop - he left ample room for Verstappen, but could not know there was someone on the inside of Verstappen as well. We see this manoeuvre a lot. I have no idea how "lack of confidence" comes into play.
Contrary to dry starts, wet starts often disadvantage the pole sitter since water on rubber gives less grip, so the race line will cause more spin.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:24 pm 
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Lt. Drebin wrote:
That's it.

Not just because of that crash, but because Mercedes is clearly a better car. Ferrari again lost the development race, in the usual manner.

Yup


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:28 pm 
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While it would obviously require him to have no bad luck, then based on his current form I would not be surprised if Hamilton went on to win every remaining race this season, like Vettel in 2013. Interlagos will be the only bogey track left for Mercedes, but if it rains, which is always probable, then Hamilton has won all of the rain affected races in the last 3 seasons...


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:32 pm 
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Hamilton has come out the blocks since the summer break looking refreshed and full of confidence.

Singapore was going to be damage limitation, but instead that wave of victory has continued.

Yes, a Lewis DNF does bring Seb right back into it, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Ferrari to overhaul this, and I reckon morale internally at Ferrari has just taken a major battering.

Another point to note - we haven't heard if Seb may need a new engine or gearbox, or any penalties that go with it. (can he change the gearbox without penalty as he didn't finish the race?)

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:33 pm 
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smiddlehurst wrote:
Not at all, especially coming in to the tail end of the season where reliability of parts that have done multiple races is going to start to stack up. A DNF for Hamilton and a decent points haul for Vettel would bring him right back into the mix. To be honest I'm surprised people are talking like this is a done deal with six races to go and a 28 point margin. Hell just this season we've seen the Merc lose a load of points thanks to an unsecured head restraint. Ferrari look to be pretty much identical to Merc on overall pace with variations favouring one team or the other depending on track and conditions.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:34 pm 
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Unless Mercedes/Hamilton mess it up yes that's it.

To be honest it was probably a long shot anyway, without the start incident the best Vettel could hope for is that he won while Hamilton finished 5th (probably 4th but I'll be generous), that would put him 12 points ahead but the Mercedes has looked the equal to better car on all but high downforce circuits since Canada. I simply can't see it happening, Ferrari have been outdeveloped IMO but we will see whether that it true or not in the races to come I suppose.

One thing is for sure though, Vettel has cost himself the chance to fight for the title (however slim) and in what was probably an inferior car. Between here and Baku he has lost big points through errors of judgment/over aggressiveness.

Ah well here's hoping for a non Mercedes championship in 2018, cmon Renault prove me wrong and give RB/McLaren a beast of an engine please.


Last edited by Black_Flag_11 on Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:36 pm 
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Yellowbin74 wrote:
Hamilton has come out the blocks since the summer break looking refreshed and full of confidence.

Singapore was going to be damage limitation, but instead that wave of victory has continued.

Yes, a Lewis DNF does bring Seb right back into it, but it's going to take a monumental effort from Ferrari to overhaul this, and I reckon morale internally at Ferrari has just taken a major battering.



Very good point. The TV cameras showed the Ferrari crew and one could easily see that they were in deep despair over what had happened. More than a few of them realized quickly that their chances at a championship went down the tubes on lap 1. Their moral is in the sewer.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:44 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Unless Mercedes/Hamilton mess it up yes that's it.

To be honest it was probably a long shot anyway, without the start incident the best Vettel could hope for is that he won while Hamilton finished 5th (probably 4th but I'll be generous), that would put him 12 points ahead but the Mercedes has looked the equal to better car on all but high downforce circuits since Canada. I simply can't see it happening, Ferrari have been outdeveloped IMO but we will see whether that it true or not in the races to come I suppose.

One thing is for sure though, Vettel has cost himself the chance to fight for the title (however slim) and in what was probably an inferior car. Between here and Baku he has lost big points through errors of judgment/over aggressiveness.

Ah well here's hoping for a non Mercedes championship in 2018, cmon Renault prove me wrong and give RB/McLaren a beast of an engine please.


If Vettel left Singapore with a 12 point lead I would put his title hopes at about 40% or he would at very least take it to the final round. I put them at about 15-20% now because he needs more than a Hamilton DNF, even if Hamilton DNFs there is an as likely chance Bottas wins the race rather than Vettel, Hamilton could quite easily DNF Malaysia and still lead the title by 10 points.

Vettel is now in the zone that Hamilton was in a lot of last year, 1 more DNF and the title is definitely gone. If Lewis wins in Malaysia and Vettel DNFs - 53 points with 5 to go is almost certainly game over for Vettel.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:58 pm 
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Nothing is over but Vettel has no more margin for error and he will likely need at least one weekend where things go wrong for Hamilton. Lewis can probably bring home the championship simply by ensuring that he finishes the remaining races on the podium. Vettel now needs to start winning races.

The damaging thing about this weekend isn't really that Vettel got a DNF. It's that he got a DNF at one of the few circuits where Ferrari have a large and clear advantage over Mercedes. This was an opportunity to swing the championship in his favor and it totally backfired.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:08 pm 
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mds wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Ferrari, before yesterday, have been in this championship battle by the slightest of threads. Mercedes has had more engine power and far better development. Hamilton would be even further in the lead if it were not for that bizarre headrest problem he had.


I don't even think Ferrari has had worse development. I think Mercedes couldn't always unlock their true pace in the beginning of the season - but they have gotten on top of their issues and they can now pretty much always unlock the potential.

Quote:
There simply was no need for Vettel's drastic chop to start the race. His lack of confidence drove him to make such a drastic mistake.


Covering off a driver on the inside like that is not a drastic chop - he left ample room for Verstappen, but could not know there was someone on the inside of Verstappen as well. We see this manoeuvre a lot. I have no idea how "lack of confidence" comes into play.
Contrary to dry starts, wet starts often disadvantage the pole sitter since water on rubber gives less grip, so the race line will cause more spin.


how exactly did verstappen have ample room?. its ok covering off a driver if you are say half a car length ahead because you are not forcing the other driver to move with you. you can cut infront. but max had a better start and his car was overlapping vettels. vettel forced him to move across and into kimi. if max hadnt moved vettel would have swiped his front wing off and probably ended up with a puncture and/or hitting the pitwall and kimi himself. its still a stupid racing incident but vettel at fault and showed extremely poor judgement and over aggression. something he has done many times before and is a major character flaw, just like schuey (and max)

just think what you would have said if max did what vettel did and ended up wiping out both ferraris. the forum would have exploded. and im sure he would have got a penalty too.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:08 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
The damaging thing about this weekend isn't really that Vettel got a DNF. It's that he got a DNF at one of the few circuits where Ferrari have a large and clear advantage over Mercedes.


It started with the rain. Finally Vettel gets another pole and then sees the advantage of pole wiped out because pole (and in general the racing line) on a wet track is just doomed since there is much more rubber than on the even row - meaning it's more slippery.

It was not a coincidence that Verstappen, Raikkonen and Alonso got such a great start.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:16 pm 
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Caserole of Nonsense wrote:
how exactly did verstappen have ample room?


Because he did? Look at it again, Vettel leaves plenty more than a car's width. At the time of collision, twere are two car widths.

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its ok covering off a driver if you are say half a car length ahead because you are not forcing the other driver to move with you. you can cut infront. but max had a better start and his car was overlapping vettels.


That's no problem in itself, driver in front (and with "in front" I mean the one who is ahead, even if overlap) can take the other driver to the edge of the track, as long as he leaves enough room and doesn't force the driver off track. We see this all the time, whether it be on starts or on straights to defend for overtakes.

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if max hadnt moved vettel would have swiped his front wing off and probably ended up with a puncture and/or hitting the pitwall and kimi himself.


The thing is that there was a third driver which Vettel didn't see. Couldn't see, even, with these tiny mirrors and no way to look to much more to the left behind. If Kimi hadn't been there, then Verstappen would have moved along with Vettel, Vettel would have stopped moving over when there was little more than a car's width left, and Verstappen may or may not have overtaken Vettel. But Kimi was there, Verstappen tried to back out, but to no avail sadly.

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just think what you would have said if max did what vettel did and ended up wiping out both ferraris.


Would have said the same. Look at my signature, I'm a fan of both. Awful day for me to be honest.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:22 pm 
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Nah not yet. Needs some good fortune for Seb and Ferrari and some bad for Mercedes and Lewis but too many races left to call it. He'll need Kimi to start beating Lewis and the Ferrari upgraded engine to be a gem without that good fortune.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:45 pm 
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So this thread has been about as divisive as a Ferrari tweet on who was to blame for yesterday's mess :lol:

Personally, I fall on the side of 'it's over unless something amazing happens'. Let's say Lewis is really unlucky and has two DNFs in the last six races of the season. It wouldn't really fit with the general reliability of the Mercedes cars, but hey, we're spitballin' here. Even if Seb wins both of those races (again, not guaranteed, but let's say he does) then Lewis can still take the WDC by winning the other four races. In my opinion, Seb pretty much needs Lewis to fail to score in half of the remaining races, and I would be amazed if that were to happen because it just isn't something that has happened to either Mercedes driver during the hybrid era. I think the worst run Hamilton, Rosberg or Bottas has had is two DNFs in the space of six races. Not to say it can't happen, because obviously it could, but there has been no suggestion in the past three-and-a-half years that it will happen.

For me, Seb had to win yesterday and hope Lewis finished 4th or worse. That would've given him a 10 point advantage, and if you add that to a race in the last six where Lewis has a DNF and Seb wins, that's a (hypothetical) 35-point lead. Even that might not have been enough for him to win the title, but then it puts a lot of pressure on Lewis/Mercedes and gives them no room to drop further points. To come away from Singapore more than a race win behind is an absolute disaster and leaves him requiring a lot of good fortune in the final six races.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:52 pm 
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I said that this season was a classic so far and it needed a sprinkle of rain at some circuit to cause a bit of havoc. Well it came yesterday. But I hope that's not the end of it!

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:55 pm 
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NO.

For example Lewis was just under two race wins ahead in 2007 (17pt then equivalent to 42-43pt now) with two races to go and he failed to finish the penultimate one and only got 7th in the last which Kimi both won to steal the wdc from both Lewis and Fernando with a point to spare. So mathematical if highly improbable chances always count.

However Lewis is the clear favourite now assuming there are no quantum jumps in Ferrari performances and Sebastian can't afford any more red mist moments like Singapore as well as needing external events/factors to start favouring him now.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:43 pm 
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lamo wrote:
moby wrote:
All this 'the title is over' stuff came about through ONE DNF. What are the odds of any front line driver completing a season without a DNF?


I don't agree, its more that Vettel is 28 points behind and has won 1 race in 8. Hamilton has won 5 of those 8 and should have won 6 of them if not for his head rest issue. Mercedes has 6 wins over that period which could be 7.

Bottas has also now out scored Vettel over the last 11 races (a period that includes them both having 1 DNF) and in the last 8 races has finished ahead of him 6-2. So even Bottas is likely to take lots of points from Vettel in the remaining 6 races and is just 23 points behind him, if these tracks suit Mercedes he could get 2nd in the WDC himself.

If Mercedes can 1-2 a race or two it makes it very hard for Vettel even if Lewis has a DNF. Ferrari need a big turn around and some luck.


When you look at it like that maybe Bottas should be allowed to race for the WDC.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:52 pm 
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ALESI wrote:
lamo wrote:
moby wrote:
All this 'the title is over' stuff came about through ONE DNF. What are the odds of any front line driver completing a season without a DNF?


I don't agree, its more that Vettel is 28 points behind and has won 1 race in 8. Hamilton has won 5 of those 8 and should have won 6 of them if not for his head rest issue. Mercedes has 6 wins over that period which could be 7.

Bottas has also now out scored Vettel over the last 11 races (a period that includes them both having 1 DNF) and in the last 8 races has finished ahead of him 6-2. So even Bottas is likely to take lots of points from Vettel in the remaining 6 races and is just 23 points behind him, if these tracks suit Mercedes he could get 2nd in the WDC himself.

If Mercedes can 1-2 a race or two it makes it very hard for Vettel even if Lewis has a DNF. Ferrari need a big turn around and some luck.


When you look at it like that maybe Bottas should be allowed to race for the WDC.


Nothing to suggest he isn't being allowed to, he is maybe number 2 post Hungary but he hasn't had the speed to challenge Hamilton so it hasn't changed anything.

Bottas is now 51 points behind Lewis and not able to get near him. If Hamilton DNFs the next 2 races and Bottas has a win and a 2nd he would still be 8 points behind Hamilton and Vettel will likely have a big championship lead over Bottas - so a Bottas WDC wouldn't happen in that scenario.

I think the only scenario Bottas can win the title in is if Hamilton has 3 DNFs and Vettel 1 more.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:53 pm 
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Remaining tracks Mercedes will be strong. Probably not the dominance of Monza. But enough to control the race and qualifying they have the advantage. Vettel still can win but needs luck. Like in Baku, Hamilton was cruising and the headset got loose somehow. So he had to do extra pit stop. I have never seen such thing before. Hamilton DNF will make it more interesting lol. Vettel has done amazing job so far to make it interesting. But Ferrari needs more performance otherwise I think Mercedes will finish 1-2 in WC.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:56 pm 
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Mercedes-Benz wrote:
Remaining tracks Mercedes will be strong. Probably not the dominance of Monza. But enough to control the race and qualifying they have the advantage. Vettel still can win but needs luck. Like in Baku, Hamilton was cruising and the headset got loose somehow. So he had to do extra pit stop. I have never seen such thing before. Hamilton DNF will make it more interesting lol. Vettel has done amazing job so far to make it interesting. But Ferrari needs more performance otherwise I think Mercedes will finish 1-2 in WC.


I would be interesting if in the last race Mercedes were in a position that if Hamilton gave Bottas the win, then Bottas would secure 2nd in the WDC. Would they ask Lewis to move over, something tells me they would and they would probably be in the right to keep up the perfect record. 1st-2nd, four years straight, nobody has ever done that.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:59 pm 
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I think you'd have a hard time getting Lewis to hand over a win, especially now he has made reference to Schumacher's 91.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:01 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Mercedes-Benz wrote:
Remaining tracks Mercedes will be strong. Probably not the dominance of Monza. But enough to control the race and qualifying they have the advantage. Vettel still can win but needs luck. Like in Baku, Hamilton was cruising and the headset got loose somehow. So he had to do extra pit stop. I have never seen such thing before. Hamilton DNF will make it more interesting lol. Vettel has done amazing job so far to make it interesting. But Ferrari needs more performance otherwise I think Mercedes will finish 1-2 in WC.


I would be interesting if in the last race Mercedes were in a position that if Hamilton gave Bottas the win, then Bottas would secure 2nd in the WDC. Would they ask Lewis to move over, something tells me they would and they would probably be in the right to keep up the perfect record. 1st-2nd, four years straight, nobody has ever done that.


Actually I think Mercedes wouldn't even have ask as Hamilton would do it on his own initiative, assuming the title would already be in the bag.

Contrary to the extreme polarization that seems to be going on between the two driver camps, I've only gotten more respect for Hamilton this year. He has conducted himself perfectly.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:14 pm 
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Its not completely over because a DNF is such a points changer but yesterday was a double pointer for Hamilton, I think he expected to be 10 points behind Vettel but instead he is 28 in front. All Hamilton has to do is finish the remaining races, Its not as though the Mercedes cars are prone unreliability is it. Vettel has to be in front of Hamilton consistently and and WIN some races. How likely is that given the remaining circuits.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:23 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:04 pm
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Mercedes-Benz wrote:
Remaining tracks Mercedes will be strong. Probably not the dominance of Monza. But enough to control the race and qualifying they have the advantage. Vettel still can win but needs luck. Like in Baku, Hamilton was cruising and the headset got loose somehow. So he had to do extra pit stop. I have never seen such thing before. Hamilton DNF will make it more interesting lol. Vettel has done amazing job so far to make it interesting. But Ferrari needs more performance otherwise I think Mercedes will finish 1-2 in WC.


Wow...wouldnt that be something if Vettel comes in third in the WDC! Talk about an epic collapse.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:27 pm 
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This explains Seb's desperation in getting maximum points at SGP. The season is predictable. Ferrari better on high downforce tracks and Mercedes the others.

For all the fuss about Seb's accident, the truth is winning in SGP would only give Seb short term joy. The best car will always have the final say. For all the teammate clashes Mercedes had in 2016, they still won comfortably. So tbh, it won't be any different this year except for some unexpected street circuit results.

btw, anyone knows if Seb signed a new long term deal?


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