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 Post subject: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:43 pm 
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I cannot see this being beaten for a very long time as none of the other drivers currently on the grid are anywhere near it as far as I am aware. I guess the only driver currently in F1 who might beat it is Max Verstappen but that all depends on who he drives for in the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:46 pm 
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owenmahamilton wrote:
I cannot see this being beaten for a very long time as none of the other drivers currently on the grid are anywhere near it as far as I am aware. I guess the only driver currently in F1 who might beat it is Max Verstappen but that all depends on who he drives for in the future.


That is the case for most of them, even those who hold the records and have held them in the past... You sit in a top car for the best part of a long career, you have a chance... if you don't have a capable car, no matter how good you might be, you have no chance.

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:48 pm 
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owenmahamilton wrote:
I cannot see this being beaten for a very long time as none of the other drivers currently on the grid are anywhere near it as far as I am aware. I guess the only driver currently in F1 who might beat it is Max Verstappen but that all depends on who he drives for in the future.

Seb has 48 (I think) from 190. If he gets a dominant car for 5 years...


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:56 pm 
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Vettel can easily beat the record, it just takes 1-2 seasons of a great car and a slower team mate. Vettel got 25 poles over 2010-2011 for example. Hamilton would probably be getting close to 100 poles by the end of the year if Rosberg wasn't so good over 1 lap 2013-2016.

But nobody other than Vettel will beat this increasing total for a long time. If we go to 22-24 races per season it will certainly make it a bit easier and make Schumachers total quite easy to beat for future drivers. If Hamilton ends with 85-95 it will be hard for anybody to beat.

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:12 pm 
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The real question is, can Hamilton actually beat 91 wins? If you asked me 5 years ago I would have said no chance but now the possibility seems very likely. Apparently there will not be an overhaul of the regulations until the 2021 season. There's no reason to assume that Mercedes won't be competitive at least up to that point.

With 8 races to go this year, let's say Hamilton wins 4 more - giving him a total of 9 wins on the season ( a relatively modest estimate). That would make 40 wins in the last 4 seasons or an average of 10 wins per year! Maintaining that through 2020 would yield 92 wins by the end of that season (the last year before the regs change). Even with a reduced estimate of say 6 wins per year during that time (very modest all things considered); he would have 80 wins by the end of 2020 at 35 years of age.

The math suggests that he has a good chance of getting there. Now winning 7 titles is another story...


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:45 pm 
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Young drivers like Verstappen obviously could. I actually think Max has a very good shot at breaking all of the 'most' records.

Obviously Vettel can too. Don't forget Hamilton is a little older (2 years?) and spent 2 years in a pole capable car in 2007/2008 while Vettel didn't, excluding the freak one at Monza obviously. If you do a poles to qualifying sessions entered for both drivers when they were in competitive cars (basically take away 2007/2008 for Vettel and take away the 2008 Monza pole) I reckon the ratio would be pretty similar, I may work it out later.

If Ferrari pull away from Mercedes next year and become dominant for the next few years he would have a great shot at breaking it and that's not exactly a far fetched scenario.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 9:52 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Young drivers like Verstappen obviously could. I actually think Max has a very good shot at breaking all of the 'most' records.

Obviously Vettel can too. Don't forget Hamilton is a little older (2 years?) and spent 2 years in a pole capable car in 2007/2008 while Vettel didn't, excluding the freak one at Monza obviously. If you do a poles to qualifying sessions entered for both drivers when they were in competitive cars (basically take away 2007/2008 for Vettel and take away the 2008 Monza pole) I reckon the ratio would be pretty similar, I may work it out later.

If Ferrari pull away from Mercedes next year and become dominant for the next few years he would have a great shot at breaking it and that's not exactly a far fetched scenario.


I don,t think the younger drivers will get chance to do it. There seems to be a drive on now to get the cars closer together in performance and it is unlikely one car will have the sort of run to put this together. At 5-6-7 poles a year it will take a long career in a capable car to get the numbers up, and Hamilton is not finished stacking them yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:07 pm 
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moby wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Young drivers like Verstappen obviously could. I actually think Max has a very good shot at breaking all of the 'most' records.

Obviously Vettel can too. Don't forget Hamilton is a little older (2 years?) and spent 2 years in a pole capable car in 2007/2008 while Vettel didn't, excluding the freak one at Monza obviously. If you do a poles to qualifying sessions entered for both drivers when they were in competitive cars (basically take away 2007/2008 for Vettel and take away the 2008 Monza pole) I reckon the ratio would be pretty similar, I may work it out later.

If Ferrari pull away from Mercedes next year and become dominant for the next few years he would have a great shot at breaking it and that's not exactly a far fetched scenario.


I don,t think the younger drivers will get chance to do it. There seems to be a drive on now to get the cars closer together in performance and it is unlikely one car will have the sort of run to put this together. At 5-6-7 poles a year it will take a long career in a capable car to get the numbers up, and Hamilton is not finished stacking them yet.

Indeed the next regulations will make past records harder to beat, if Hamilton can make hay for the next 3 years it might be a long, long time before any records he may set get beaten.

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:45 pm 
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When Schumacher set all his records, they were largely considered unbreakable because of the fact the entire old guard left (Prost/Mansell etc) and Senna died, leaving a vacuum. Other than Hakkinen, he had no comparable talents and was in a Ferrari team with a bottomless pit of money, unlimited testing and bespoke Bridgestone tyres. People looked at that and said, there is no way those records will or can be broken, he was the best of his generation in perfect conditions with little opposition.

Of course, the pole record fell - but, Schumacher spent a sizeable part of his career qualifying with fuel loads, meaning that the true pole was not the actual pole, had he had light fuel load qualifying it's probably he'd have got 80+ poles in his career, if not more. It was always assumed if any of his records would fall, it would be this one.

The 91 wins though, that was impossible. Except, Hamilton is now 33 wins from beating this. If Mercedes pull away from Ferrari in 2018 and Bottas maintains the same finishing ahead record as this year, Hamilton could win 10-15 races in subsequent seasons, and with 3 more years of this regulations,
that means Hamilton will win 30-45 races before the next regulation change.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it is plausible that Hamilton will exceed Schumacher's win record as well, and match the titles. And, it would be in about 270 GP starts, which is a similar number to Schumacher 1991-2006 race start count.

Hamilton will be 36 at the start of the 2021 season, but given that Schumacher, Button and Barrichello all exceeded 300 starts, it's likely that he would continue beyond then.

And Hamilton will have achieved this in a more competitive field than Schumacher. This is not to say Hamilton is better or worse than Schumacher - it's just to point out that no records are safe. Someone will eclipse Hamilton, it may not be for a generation, but with the season likely to be expanded to 25 races under Liberty, drivers will have more races in their career - and they'll be doing 25% more than Hamilton is doing, and 60% more than Senna did. We'll have drivers with 400 GP starts (16 seasons x 25) with Verstappen very likely to hit 450GP starts.

I could definitely see Verstappen getting the record for number of WDCs - but I could definitely see him not as well. He's definitely the best of his generation, but by the time Hamilton and Vettel retire, they'll be new Max Verstappens coming through the other junior programs.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:21 pm 
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As pointed out, Schumachers pole record is a little false as a fair chunk of his dominant era was qualifying with starting fuel, which masked the true pole position. It wasn't uncommon to see the fastest car qualify 4th or 5th, but with 6 or 7 laps more fuel.

Hamilton has been lucky that he has had a car with unprecedented levels of dominance over 3 seasons, and it has really boosted his stats.

However the F1 pendulum will swing again, Mercedes won't always be the best car. Stats are only really good for giving a guide to driver ability.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:36 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
As pointed out, Schumachers pole record is a little false as a fair chunk of his dominant era was qualifying with starting fuel, which masked the true pole position. It wasn't uncommon to see the fastest car qualify 4th or 5th, but with 6 or 7 laps more fuel.

Hamilton has been lucky that he has had a car with unprecedented levels of dominance over 3 seasons, and it has really boosted his stats.

However the F1 pendulum will swing again, Mercedes won't always be the best car. Stats are only really good for giving a guide to driver ability.


Remember the Schumacher era for Team Mercedes? God they were simply awful then. Most would have never have expected that one day this team would be absolutely dominant over every other team.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:08 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
As pointed out, Schumachers pole record is a little false as a fair chunk of his dominant era was qualifying with starting fuel, which masked the true pole position. It wasn't uncommon to see the fastest car qualify 4th or 5th, but with 6 or 7 laps more fuel.

Hamilton has been lucky that he has had a car with unprecedented levels of dominance over 3 seasons, and it has really boosted his stats.

However the F1 pendulum will swing again, Mercedes won't always be the best car. Stats are only really good for giving a guide to driver ability.

Every driver near the top of these lists has had dominant machinery. Shumacher had several years at Ferrari where they were in a league of their own. 2001, 2002 and 2004 there was no one near them. Same goes for Vettel in his run at Red Bull. You're not getting to the top of these lists without having dominant machinery at some point in time.

Unlike the other two, Hamilton has had to race against a highly competitive teammate with equal status the whole time. Michael had a cushy set-up throughout his entire time at Ferrari and Benetton. He never had to battle a competitive teammate until he came out of retirement. Hamilton has had tougher teammates and he has raced during a more competitive era than Michael and yet he is still compiling similar statistics. That's worthy of note.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:46 am 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Hamilton has had tougher teammates and he has raced during a more competitive era than Michael and yet he is still compiling similar statistics. That's worthy of note.


I'd say the 2014-2016 seasons were some of the most uncompetitive in history. The Mercedes dominance was ludicrous, and they still have the edge in 2017.

Hamilton has had a very fortunate 3 years. Apart from the first half of 2016 Rosberg wasn't putting up much of a fight.


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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 am 
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oz_karter wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Hamilton has had tougher teammates and he has raced during a more competitive era than Michael and yet he is still compiling similar statistics. That's worthy of note.


I'd say the 2014-2016 seasons were some of the most uncompetitive in history. The Mercedes dominance was ludicrous, and they still have the edge in 2017.

Hamilton has had a very fortunate 3 years. Apart from the first half of 2016 Rosberg wasn't putting up much of a fight.

How did Rosberg get on in qualifying against Schumacher mk2?

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:35 pm 
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Badgeronimous wrote:
Hamilton has been lucky that he has had a car with unprecedented levels of dominance over 3 seasons, and it has really boosted his stats.

However the F1 pendulum will swing again, Mercedes won't always be the best car. Stats are only really good for giving a guide to driver ability.


That is actually incorrect with regards to Hamilton, he is set to get more pole positions this year than 2014,2015 and 2016.

He got 7,11 and 12 in those years. He already has 8 this year. Rosberg took lots of poles away from Hamilton, Bottas doesn't. So even though the Mercedes is much less dominant, the team mate variable is much stronger and he is set to beat those totals at his current rate. Its the same reason Vettel racked up so many poles 2010-2013, his car wasn't as dominant as the 2014-2016 but he had a weak team mate not taking too many poles from him.

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:40 pm 
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Michael didn't lose too many poles to the race fuel era either.

2003 - 6/16
2004 - 13/18
2005 - 1/19
2006 - 7/18

He actually gained a pole due to fuelling very light for the 2005 Bahrain GP. He still dominated 2004, 2006 he maybe lost 2 or 3 poles. 2003 the same. His total is probably about a net 5 lower than it might be due to race fuel. At most 6 or 7.

But Hamilton also raced under these rules 2007-2009 but I have a feeling Hamilton might have gained slightly overall or his total is at least neutral due to race fuel qualifying. Micahel did have a tendency to fuel a bit more heavier than his rivals as that was best for his tyres 2003-2006.

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 Post subject: Re: Pole Position record
PostPosted: Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:46 pm 
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lamo wrote:
Michael didn't lose too many poles to the race fuel era either.

2003 - 6/16
2004 - 13/18
2005 - 1/19
2006 - 7/18

He actually gained a pole due to fuelling very light for the 2005 Bahrain GP. He still dominated 2004, 2006 he maybe lost 2 or 3 poles. 2003 the same. His total is probably about a net 5 lower than it might be due to race fuel. At most 6 or 7.

But Hamilton also raced under these rules 2007-2009 but I have a feeling Hamilton might have gained slightly overall or his total is at least neutral due to race fuel qualifying. Micahel did have a tendency to fuel a bit more heavier than his rivals as that was best for his tyres 2003-2006.

I think the fact that Schumacher had 4 years of those rules and Hamilton had 3 years of the same rules negates that argument somewhat.

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