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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:23 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
hairy_scotsman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
I don't think that F1 is pioneering with regards to engines or anything like that but when the majority of road cars are electric F1 will start to look outdated. Then when engine regulations come up for renewal manufacturers will start pushing for electric power IMO, there may be resistance at first but ultimately I can't see a future for F1 that doesn't involve all electric power.

And when do you think that will be? Not any time soon, from what I can tell, and more likely not ever imho. EVs have lots of big hurdles to overcome before that can even be possible, and they still comprise less than 1% of cars on the road and less than 1% of market share of new vehicles sold.


Within the next 15 years - Maybe 10 years, the majority of new cars sold will not be primarily ICE powered.

I can see that in Europe, but what about e.g. the States? Or Australia? Some of the vast and sparsely populated distances in those countries tells me that the humble ICE will be fairly prevalent there for a good while yet. And I'm only guessing here but I can't imagine Asia being ready to convert en masse to electric only power for a while. Or Africa. And countries like Brazil don't have the finances to implement an electric charging infrastructure on the scale that would be needed in order to phase out ICE vehicles. F1 may have issues from a European perspective, but I can't see the rest of the world following suit in the short or even medium term


True I am only looking at it from a European perspective. However I do believe that major car manufactures will only be releasing green energy cars to the market in the near future. Volvo have recently announced they will not be releasing non electric or hybrid cars from 2019. Other manufactures will follow suit. I don't think it's a big statement to say most if not all major car manufacturers will not be making ICE powered cars by 2030.
I've just read a report that Elon Musk claims that in ten years time nearly half the new cars sold in the States will be fully electric. So, while I'm sceptical, I accept it's a possibility. I've no doubt it will happen eventually. I just can't reconcile the timescales being discussed, but it's not like I've never been wrong before


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 3:10 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
hairy_scotsman wrote:


Within the next 15 years - Maybe 10 years, the majority of new cars sold will not be primarily ICE powered.

I can see that in Europe, but what about e.g. the States? Or Australia? Some of the vast and sparsely populated distances in those countries tells me that the humble ICE will be fairly prevalent there for a good while yet. And I'm only guessing here but I can't imagine Asia being ready to convert en masse to electric only power for a while. Or Africa. And countries like Brazil don't have the finances to implement an electric charging infrastructure on the scale that would be needed in order to phase out ICE vehicles. F1 may have issues from a European perspective, but I can't see the rest of the world following suit in the short or even medium term


True I am only looking at it from a European perspective. However I do believe that major car manufactures will only be releasing green energy cars to the market in the near future. Volvo have recently announced they will not be releasing non electric or hybrid cars from 2019. Other manufactures will follow suit. I don't think it's a big statement to say most if not all major car manufacturers will not be making ICE powered cars by 2030.
I've just read a report that Elon Musk claims that in ten years time nearly half the new cars sold in the States will be fully electric. So, while I'm sceptical, I accept it's a possibility. I've no doubt it will happen eventually. I just can't reconcile the timescales being discussed, but it's not like I've never been wrong before


Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:09 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Well I'm no expert but you've got all of the manufacturers joining FE, governments starting to implement cut off dates for petrol/diesel cars (the UK banning production from 2040 for example) and statements from manufacturers like Volvo who say they won't produce a purely petrol/diesel car from 2019.

I have no idea if battery technology can evolve to the point that it becomes the main power source for cars, or whether it will be something else like hydrogen but no matter which way you look at it I think the writing is on the wall for petrol and diesel.

Edit: I should also point out in my first post regarding electric in F1 I did try to put a disclaimer of 'if' electric power becomes ready, but looking back it's not very clear. As I said I'm no expert but looking from the outside it seems pretty clear that electricity is the way the automotive industry is moving. Partly by choice, partly by government enforcement.


mikeyg123 wrote:
Within the next 15 years - Maybe 10 years, the majority of new cars sold will not be primarily ICE powered.


I'm not talking about hybrids. I'm talking about EVs. I keep hearing about how full EV sales are booming, they're about to take over from ICE power and hybrids, etc. It's just not true.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:12 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
hairy_scotsman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
I don't think that F1 is pioneering with regards to engines or anything like that but when the majority of road cars are electric F1 will start to look outdated. Then when engine regulations come up for renewal manufacturers will start pushing for electric power IMO, there may be resistance at first but ultimately I can't see a future for F1 that doesn't involve all electric power.

And when do you think that will be? Not any time soon, from what I can tell, and more likely not ever imho. EVs have lots of big hurdles to overcome before that can even be possible, and they still comprise less than 1% of cars on the road and less than 1% of market share of new vehicles sold.


Within the next 15 years - Maybe 10 years, the majority of new cars sold will not be primarily ICE powered.

I can see that in Europe, but what about e.g. the States? Or Australia? Some of the vast and sparsely populated distances in those countries tells me that the humble ICE will be fairly prevalent there for a good while yet. And I'm only guessing here but I can't imagine Asia being ready to convert en masse to electric only power for a while. Or Africa. And countries like Brazil don't have the finances to implement an electric charging infrastructure on the scale that would be needed in order to phase out ICE vehicles. F1 may have issues from a European perspective, but I can't see the rest of the world following suit in the short or even medium term

Yep. And think of how much electric power currently comes from burning fossil fuels .... and then think how much demand for electric power would increase if EVs truly did take over the way some say.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:49 pm 
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Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 20899
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I can see that in Europe, but what about e.g. the States? Or Australia? Some of the vast and sparsely populated distances in those countries tells me that the humble ICE will be fairly prevalent there for a good while yet. And I'm only guessing here but I can't imagine Asia being ready to convert en masse to electric only power for a while. Or Africa. And countries like Brazil don't have the finances to implement an electric charging infrastructure on the scale that would be needed in order to phase out ICE vehicles. F1 may have issues from a European perspective, but I can't see the rest of the world following suit in the short or even medium term


True I am only looking at it from a European perspective. However I do believe that major car manufactures will only be releasing green energy cars to the market in the near future. Volvo have recently announced they will not be releasing non electric or hybrid cars from 2019. Other manufactures will follow suit. I don't think it's a big statement to say most if not all major car manufacturers will not be making ICE powered cars by 2030.
I've just read a report that Elon Musk claims that in ten years time nearly half the new cars sold in the States will be fully electric. So, while I'm sceptical, I accept it's a possibility. I've no doubt it will happen eventually. I just can't reconcile the timescales being discussed, but it's not like I've never been wrong before


Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:05 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:04 pm
Posts: 1568
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:


True I am only looking at it from a European perspective. However I do believe that major car manufactures will only be releasing green energy cars to the market in the near future. Volvo have recently announced they will not be releasing non electric or hybrid cars from 2019. Other manufactures will follow suit. I don't think it's a big statement to say most if not all major car manufacturers will not be making ICE powered cars by 2030.
I've just read a report that Elon Musk claims that in ten years time nearly half the new cars sold in the States will be fully electric. So, while I'm sceptical, I accept it's a possibility. I've no doubt it will happen eventually. I just can't reconcile the timescales being discussed, but it's not like I've never been wrong before


Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:07 am 
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Herb Tarlik wrote:
I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.


You wouldn't. You would just need the charging points at every space in a supermarket car park, work car park or shopping center car park etc.

There must be somewhere that you park your car for half an hour or so every 300 miles other than on the street.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:21 am 
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Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 10:39 am
Posts: 20899
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:

Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:39 am 
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I presume commercial vehicles aren't going electric anytime soon either? How many batteries would it take to move an articulated lorry... I haven't heard any mention of lorries or vans moving away from diesel either. That's going to take a long time. My company runs three car derived vans, usually purchased when they are three years old or so. I can't remember even seeing a petrol car derived van on offer anywhere (though I assume they will have to start making these now?)

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:39 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.


You wouldn't. You would just need the charging points at every space in a supermarket car park, work car park or shopping center car park etc.

There must be somewhere that you park your car for half an hour or so every 300 miles other than on the street.


Yes, but parking lots like that are designed to take in people who shop, not people who are just recharging their cars. Parking at my local supermarket shows that the lots are 70-90% full during (my) normal waking hours. I rarely get a parking spot that is anywhere near the store's entrance. The lots are quite full and busy. Now add in the fact that the 20,000 people in my neighborhood are going to be using lots like this to charge their cars and the situation becomes completely unviable.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:42 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:04 pm
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Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:

Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible


It was claimed in this thread that 50% or more of all cars will be electric in 10 years. That's overnight for a project of this scale and cost.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:57 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm
Posts: 12274
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:

Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible


It was claimed in this thread that 50% or more of all cars will be electric in 10 years. That's overnight for a project of this scale and cost.


50% of all cars sold. Not all cars on the road.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:41 pm 
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Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:04 pm
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible


It was claimed in this thread that 50% or more of all cars will be electric in 10 years. That's overnight for a project of this scale and cost.


50% of all cars sold. Not all cars on the road.


World wide that's something north of 20 million cars. Do you know how many plants it takes to crank out 10 million cars a year? Do you think that there are that many plants under construction now?


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:34 pm 
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Ok so what do you think will happen when fossil fuels become financial unviable for the masses?


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:16 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Ok so what do you think will happen when fossil fuels become financial unviable for the masses?


There's more oil now than ever before. So much oil that the USA is now EXPORTING oil, something that was simply unthinkable when I was a child. Natural gas reserves are going up every single year. Prices drop every year for natural gas. My heating bill for my home during the last year was the lowest it has ever been.

At some point it will run out, but that will not happen in my lifetime and probably not in my kids lifetime.

Regardless, something will take its place.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:20 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Ok so what do you think will happen when fossil fuels become financial unviable for the masses?


And dont forget, in 99% of the world, electricity is mostly produced by fossil fuels, so going electric with cars is STILL burning fossil fuels. In most cases cars will then be indirectly buring coal, THE most dirty fossil fuel there is.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:46 pm 
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Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Herb Tarlik wrote:

Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.


I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible


It was claimed in this thread that 50% or more of all cars will be electric in 10 years. That's overnight for a project of this scale and cost.

it was claimed by Elon Musk. And when I quoted him I did say I was sceptical.

in 2007 there were 321 new EV registrations in Norway. In 2016, ten years later, that jumped to 50,875. So far in 2017, (PH)EVs have accounted for over half of all new car registrations. So if Norway managed to do it in ten years when EVs weren't even as popular as they are now and there wasn't anything like the choice there is now, why is it so impossible to imagine that other countries might be able to jump on the bandwagon, especially if manufacturers like Volvo put their weight behind it by only producing (hybrid) electric cars?

It's a big task. But not an impossible one


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:38 pm 
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i feel like my thread has been a little bit hijacked here, so getting back to the discussion. ..

do the other fia series have their own commercial rights holders too then?


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