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I've just read a report that Elon Musk claims that in ten years time nearly half the new cars sold in the States will be fully electric. So, while I'm sceptical, I accept it's a possibility. I've no doubt it will happen eventually. I just can't reconcile the timescales being discussed, but it's not like I've never been wrong before

Elon Musk is on crack if he thinks that half the cars in 10 years will be fully electric. Everyone just blows by the problem of recharging, as if it is by far the simplest goal to achieve.

The US consumes something like 17 million cars per year. 8.5 million fully electric cars in 10 years? Not from Tesla, who struggle mightily to make 20,000/month.

65% of all US sales are SUV's and pick up trucks. Are those going electric in 10 years? Not a chance.

There simply wont be a charging infrastructure in place in 10 years to charge 8 million electric vehicles nationwide.

All of Tesla's tax credits expire the moment they sell their 200,000th car. Then customers will have to pay nearly $10,000 more per car. Think about that for a moment.

Musk has always been a snake oil salesman.

I'm not talking about hybrids. I'm talking about EVs. I keep hearing about how full EV sales are booming, they're about to take over from ICE power and hybrids, etc. It's just not true.

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Yep. And think of how much electric power currently comes from burning fossil fuels .... and then think how much demand for electric power would increase if EVs truly did take over the way some say.

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I don't think recharging is as big a problem as you are making out. What's easier: plugging your car in when you get home or when you arrive at the office, so you have a full tank whenever you set off, or going out of your way to find a fuel station when it may not be convenient? Countries like Norway and the Netherlands have shown it can be done. When I had a GTE, I was parking on the street and still managed to find a charging point every evening. If they can do it, why would it be such a problem for other countries?

Tesla has shown that range is achievable without sacrificing performance. Yes, their cars are relatively expensive, but surely at least part of that must be economies of scale. The technology already exists, even if it is in its infancy. But governments have to be organised enough if they really want to be behind it.

I have lived in several major cities in several different countries. Never once have I had a parking spot. I street parked with the vast majority of the time my found spot was 2-3 blocks from my home. I did this along with several hundred thousand other people. Every day a different parking spot. There are 1 million street parked cars in places like Chicago or Atlanta. There are 5 million cars in Shanghai or Beijing or Mumbai, all parked on the street.

You would have to have a charging point at every single parking spot in cites like that to have electric cars even remotely reliable.

No one here has even attempted to paint a feasible picture on how this will happen. The cost will be staggering, absolutely staggering world wide.

People here treat this problem as if it were trivia.

You wouldn't. You would just need the charging points at every space in a supermarket car park, work car park or shopping center car park etc.

There must be somewhere that you park your car for half an hour or so every 300 miles other than on the street.

The difficulty of finding a parking spot has nothing to do with electric charging points. If every spot had a point, it would still be difficult to park.

No-one's pretending it's not a major cost, but that doesn't make it impossible. Every major infrastructure project is a major cost. A decade or two ago all the parking meters in the town I lived in at the time were replaced with electronic, networked versions. That must have been a huge cost and that wasn't even driven by necessity. Where I live currently there are multiple on-street charging points. Not every spot is one, but they are reasonably plentiful. So it's not a huge stretch to imagine them gradually increasing over time. Or maybe technology will make that redundant. I read recently about a system that allows you to charge personal electronics wirelessly, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility that this may translate to other applications, include EV charging. And this is with technology that is being worked on today. Other projects include one which allows induction loops to be buried under the tarmac and cars to be charged as they drive. Etc, etc.

To implement any infrastructure overnight would be a Herculean task. But a phased, coordinated implementation over a period of time would not be impossible. EV take up won't suddenly jump to 100% overnight, but the easier the infrastructure makes it, the less resistance to it there will be. At Schiphol airport in Amsterdam a taxi company changed its entire fleet to Teslas overnight, because they recognised the long term benefits. And with a half charge taking only 20 minutes, they don't lose much downtime at all. Expensive doesn't mean impossible

I presume commercial vehicles aren't going electric anytime soon either? How many batteries would it take to move an articulated lorry... I haven't heard any mention of lorries or vans moving away from diesel either. That's going to take a long time. My company runs three car derived vans, usually purchased when they are three years old or so. I can't remember even seeing a petrol car derived van on offer anywhere (though I assume they will have to start making these now?)

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Shoot999: "And anyone who puts a Y on the end of his name as a nickname should be punched in the face repeatedly."

Yes, but parking lots like that are designed to take in people who shop, not people who are just recharging their cars. Parking at my local supermarket shows that the lots are 70-90% full during (my) normal waking hours. I rarely get a parking spot that is anywhere near the store's entrance. The lots are quite full and busy. Now add in the fact that the 20,000 people in my neighborhood are going to be using lots like this to charge their cars and the situation becomes completely unviable.

It was claimed in this thread that 50% or more of all cars will be electric in 10 years. That's overnight for a project of this scale and cost.

50% of all cars sold. Not all cars on the road.

World wide that's something north of 20 million cars. Do you know how many plants it takes to crank out 10 million cars a year? Do you think that there are that many plants under construction now?

Ok so what do you think will happen when fossil fuels become financial unviable for the masses?

There's more oil now than ever before. So much oil that the USA is now EXPORTING oil, something that was simply unthinkable when I was a child. Natural gas reserves are going up every single year. Prices drop every year for natural gas. My heating bill for my home during the last year was the lowest it has ever been.

At some point it will run out, but that will not happen in my lifetime and probably not in my kids lifetime.

Regardless, something will take its place.

And dont forget, in 99% of the world, electricity is mostly produced by fossil fuels, so going electric with cars is STILL burning fossil fuels. In most cases cars will then be indirectly buring coal, THE most dirty fossil fuel there is.

it was claimed by Elon Musk. And when I quoted him I did say I was sceptical.

in 2007 there were 321 new EV registrations in Norway. In 2016, ten years later, that jumped to 50,875. So far in 2017, (PH)EVs have accounted for over half of all new car registrations. So if Norway managed to do it in ten years when EVs weren't even as popular as they are now and there wasn't anything like the choice there is now, why is it so impossible to imagine that other countries might be able to jump on the bandwagon, especially if manufacturers like Volvo put their weight behind it by only producing (hybrid) electric cars?

It's a big task. But not an impossible one

i feel like my thread has been a little bit hijacked here, so getting back to the discussion. ..

do the other fia series have their own commercial rights holders too then?