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How will Bottas do?
More points than Lewis 10%  10%  [ 8 ]
90-99% 10%  10%  [ 8 ]
75-89% 58%  58%  [ 46 ]
50-75% 19%  19%  [ 15 ]
Less than 50% 3%  3%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 79
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:29 pm 
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Well, Bottas is actually closer to Hamilton by 9 points than Rosberg in 2014 and 1 point 2015. I think Rosberg suffered more bad luck both these years, but considering there has been a battle with Ferrari most of this season and even Red Bull too at times, this is a good result for Bottas. Mercedes were dominant most of the time in the 3 seasons before this so I think this reflects that Bottas is a fair bit closer to Rosberg than many think.

So for the sake of this thread, he's got 84% of Hamilton's points. It shows that this maths doesn't quite work as that is rounded up to the closest percentage. And it it actually lower than Rosberg even though Bottas was 1 point closer to Hamilton.

Another thing is if we use this maths, then Bottas has got 46% of the teams points. We can only loosely base the facts on these percentages but if Bottas is considered a number 2 driver, he has had a really good first season on the whole in terms of getting points.


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 26, 2017 6:35 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Well, Bottas is actually closer to Hamilton by 9 points than Rosberg in 2014 and 1 point 2015. I think Rosberg suffered more bad luck both these years, but considering there has been a battle with Ferrari most of this season and even Red Bull too at times, this is a good result for Bottas. Mercedes were dominant most of the time in the 3 seasons before this so I think this reflects that Bottas is a fair bit closer to Rosberg than many think.

So for the sake of this thread, he's got 84% of Hamilton's points. It shows that this maths doesn't quite work as that is rounded up to the closest percentage. And it it actually lower than Rosberg even though Bottas was 1 point closer to Hamilton.

Another thing is if we use this maths, then Bottas has got 46% of the teams points. We can only loosely base the facts on these percentages but if Bottas is considered a number 2 driver, he has had a really good first season on the whole in terms of getting points.

Statistics can be interesting sometimes but they rarely paint the full picture. From actually watching the races I can only conclude that Bottas has not been of the same standard as Rosberg. Some weekends, particularly in the second half of the year, he has been absolutely nowhere in relation to his team mate; even on a bad weekend Rosberg was never as far from Hamilton as Bottas has been on a number of occasions. The times he has finished ahead of Hamilton appeared to owe more to Lewis underperforming than Vatteri taking a step up (think Russia and Monaco, as well as Lewis' crash in Brazil) and I think he's been quite fortuitous at times in inheriting positions from other drivers' misfortunes (Baku, Mexico) which have flattered his final championship points total.

Overall in my opinion he has to do better next year if he wants to keep his seat. The Abu Dhabi GP weekend showed some promise that he may be able to deliver though, he was very impressive and I think for the first time this season he proved he can beat Hamilton on merit.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:30 am 
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Invade wrote:
Actually slash that old prediction. I expect a 3-way fight next year and as such there are more points to lose if you don't have the edge. I think Bottas will actually score a lesser % of points on Hamilton in 2018 than he will do in 2017. Let's say 77%.

He will be better but Max and Dan will feature heavily alongside Lewis and Seb and Bottas will be 5th or 6th best of the bunch still.



Well the final prediction here was 77%...

Right now we're at 281-171 so thats... 61%

Bottas had some bad luck but that's still a whoopin'.


The only way I can see Bottas doing better going forward is if Mercedes build another truly dominant car, giving Bottas a chance at the WDC, or if Hamilton seriously loses a lot of motivation were he to win a 5th title and take it easy.

Hamilton is way too good for Bottas to simply reach through further experience and improvement and hitting some imagined prime of his careerm for Hamilton is in a different league as a racing driver.

Mercedes should get Ocon in the car sooner rather than later I reckon. Leclerc will probably have the beating of Bottas within half a season in 2019.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:27 am 
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Invade wrote:
Invade wrote:
Actually slash that old prediction. I expect a 3-way fight next year and as such there are more points to lose if you don't have the edge. I think Bottas will actually score a lesser % of points on Hamilton in 2018 than he will do in 2017. Let's say 77%.

He will be better but Max and Dan will feature heavily alongside Lewis and Seb and Bottas will be 5th or 6th best of the bunch still.



Well the final prediction here was 77%...

Right now we're at 281-171 so thats... 61%

Bottas had some bad luck but that's still a whoopin'.


The only way I can see Bottas doing better going forward is if Mercedes build another truly dominant car, giving Bottas a chance at the WDC, or if Hamilton seriously loses a lot of motivation were he to win a 5th title and take it easy.

Hamilton is way too good for Bottas to simply reach through further experience and improvement and hitting some imagined prime of his careerm for Hamilton is in a different league as a racing driver.

Mercedes should get Ocon in the car sooner rather than later I reckon. Leclerc will probably have the beating of Bottas within half a season in 2019.


I think you should consider Bottas's bad luck a bit more than you have. If you include China, Azerbaijan, France and Austria, That is a likely 62 points. If he had had not retirements which isn't unusual for Mercedes. In that Hamilton will have gained an extra 2 in china due to Ricciardo not getting by but then also gained 7 points in Baku due to Bottas's puncture. So he would be at 275 now without that.

If Hamilton had the bad luck like he did with Rosberg in 2016 and say retired in Austria and Bottas didn't have as much bad luck. The points would be 240 for Bottas and 275 for Hamilton. Hamilton has also had some bad luck in qualifying and been knocked back by a Ferrari too on one occasion. But the fact is, bad luck can sometimes swing your way. If it had gone against Hamilton and not Bottas. Bottas would very likely have over 85% of Hamilton's points. Still shows Hamilton is a lot better. But Bottas overall has still been good this year. Hamilton just seems to have been extremely strong in the last few races. Mercedes were worse than Ferrari in the last 4 races I'd say. And Hamilton beat them in 3 of them. Bottas has had a bit of a dip, but I don't think he's well off the realistic performance of the car. Hamilton is just outstanding at the moment. Which he wasn't near the start of the season. Bottas has also not exactly had much in the was of good fortune due to others mistakes this season compared to a driver like Kimi. One reason why they are so close in the championship. Overall, Bottas is certainly better than him.

It has to be said that Bottas's strategies have sometimes been a bit over optimistic. Leaving him out in Britain was rather unlucky for him. He did an outstanding job of keeping Vettel behind for quite some time and I don't think enough people realise this. Many just remember that he finished 4th. That was a solid race by Bottas. Hamilton may have managed to do a better job in the end, but his laps were the same number of laps fresher as Bottas had laps left to do when they suddenly looked to give up. Mercedes took a risk that didn't work. Similar in Hungary. You can certainly blame him for the 2nd collision. But for most of the race, he kept faster cars behind him. He made the mistakes although I also blame Vettel in the first one. But if Mercedes didn't leave him out for so long and pitted him several laps later, he would have been 2nd on a track where Ferrari were certainly better. I'm not even including these points as some he has potentially missed. Just pointing out that if Bottas hasn't had the misfortune and Hamilton had, the gap wouldn'd be huge. If Mercedes were dominant, I only think he'd be slightly below what Rosberg would be capable of.

Regarding what you say about Ocon, I don't know what proof we have of him being ready and better than Bottas. I think Perez despite his podium is not having a good season and that is just making Ocon look a bit better than he is. He's pretty solid, but Mercedes would not have signed Bottas for another full season with an option (may be the teams) to drive the following year if they didn't have a lot of confidence in him. We can't just say that they based it on his form at the start of this season and then they regretted it after they see what they are from him now (which one or two here or on other sites are sort of implying). I think he did worse than this mid season last year. And his dip started earlier on last year too. They have that as evidence of what he can be like for quite some time, but they still sign him when they could have gone for Ocon. So there is clearly a reason why they go for Bottas and I don't know what evidence there is. You could well not be saying he is better that Bottas, and just has more potential. But if that is the case (could well be), Mercedes clearly didn't want to mess things up and just wanted to keep things stable with a driver they know. And given they have basically made it look like the possibility of Bottas staying for 2 more seasons is more likely then when he first got resigned makes it even less likely that they would want another driver. Unless Ocon significantly improves, or Bottas clearly starts to get worse and it continues through to the start of next season I don't think the line up will change unless Hamilton leaves. And with the level he is at at the moment, I don't think he should.

And also, Leclerc has only looked significantly better than Ericsson in 5 races this year. Ericsson has overall looked better in 5 weekends, though not by much of a margin and very close in 1 or 2 others too. I think Ericsson is a bit under rated, but still one of the worst on the grid. The fact though that he's several times (not just the first 3 races) often looked not that far off Leclercs race pace shows that Leclerc is rather over rated at the moment. I think Bottas is currently better than Leclerc on the whole and will almost without doubt be better as Leclerc gets used to the new team. What I do expect though is that within a season at Ferrari, he will almost certainly be better. I just at the moment don't quite get the hype about him when Sauber has significantly improved this year and Ericsson is often close and sometimes better. Though Leclerc's one lap pace does seem to be outstanding.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:38 am 
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Well there's no doubt that Ham-Bot make a great team, and that Bottas is being disadvantaged somewhat by ambitious strategy calls and that Hamilton is pretty much the #1 driver, official or not. Regarding Ocon, I feel he's generally been a bit better than Perez, who I rate similarly to Bottas albeit he's far more belligerent and the team would operate a lot less successfully with Perez in it rather than Bottas. As such, my reckoning is that Ocon is slightly quicker/better than Bottas and has more room to grow than him also. Of course, that isn't something I can know for sure until it's actually realised. Mercedes obviously value the harmony within the team that currently exists but that doesn't mean they necessarily think Bottas is better than Ocon and it could just mean that they'd rather not fix what isn't broken. Before this silly season furore it was assumed that Ocon would remain in F1 with all parties happy for the meantime but as luck would have it Ocon appears to be out of luck. With the assumption before that there wouldn't be a problem for Ocon in securing an F1 seat it made sense to feel no urgency to make any such switch.

If down the road (as I'm predicting) Leclerc will have the beating of Bottas in not too long, Mercedes may well have the worse driver pairing overall and the deficit may become as such that no amount of team harmony can bridge the gap, with Mercedes starting to leak WCCs at least. Bottas has an option for 2020 as far as I know but if things continue as they have done now for the last 2 seasons on balance, I would flatout expect Bottas to be replaced by Ocon for 2020.

I'm not sure how much more I can factor in the bad luck. I just think the bottom line is that Hamilton has been far superior on balance throughout both 2017 and 2018 and sometimes the numbers look closer than they should appear and sometimes further away. Ultimately, I'm still waiting for Bottas to show a period of form which is truly impressive. Being comparable to a sluggish starting Hamilton to open 2018 doesn't cut it for me.

Yet, I think the partnership is very pleasing and highly effective. Ferrari's move is highly ambitious and radical for them, however, and it could be a game changer going forward. Bottas might be struggling to survive in 2019 - I'd say there's a good chance for it.

I'm not that impressed with Leclerc yet and my call on him is just a far more tenuous forecasting which I just happen to believe in. However, the season he's having himself is being overrated by most and his errors are often being glossed over because he's a rookie and because Charles has charmed most of us in his rookie season with his good drives and his down to earth personality. I just "feel" he'll learn quickly and be up to speed big-time by the 2nd half of 2019. He'll have more regular peaks than Bottas and will end up challenging Vettel in the end I reckon. That true challenge to Vettel would likely have to wait until 2020 though as he'll probably be far enough behind through 2019 to be accepting of a supporting role in a WDC race.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:11 am 
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Invade wrote:
Well there's no doubt that Ham-Bot make a great team, and that Bottas is being disadvantaged somewhat by ambitious strategy calls and that Hamilton is pretty much the #1 driver, official or not. Regarding Ocon, I feel he's generally been a bit better than Perez, who I rate similarly to Bottas albeit he's far more belligerent and the team would operate a lot less successfully with Perez in it rather than Bottas. As such, my reckoning is that Ocon is slightly quicker/better than Bottas and has more room to grow than him also. Of course, that isn't something I can know for sure until it's actually realised. Mercedes obviously value the harmony within the team that currently exists but that doesn't mean they necessarily think Bottas is better than Ocon and it could just mean that they'd rather not fix what isn't broken. Before this silly season furore it was assumed that Ocon would remain in F1 with all parties happy for the meantime but as luck would have it Ocon appears to be out of luck. With the assumption before that there wouldn't be a problem for Ocon in securing an F1 seat it made sense to feel no urgency to make any such switch.

If down the road (as I'm predicting) Leclerc will have the beating of Bottas in not too long, Mercedes may well have the worse driver pairing overall and the deficit may become as such that no amount of team harmony can bridge the gap, with Mercedes starting to leak WCCs at least. Bottas has an option for 2020 as far as I know but if things continue as they have done now for the last 2 seasons on balance, I would flatout expect Bottas to be replaced by Ocon for 2020.

I'm not sure how much more I can factor in the bad luck. I just think the bottom line is that Hamilton has been far superior on balance throughout both 2017 and 2018 and sometimes the numbers look closer than they should appear and sometimes further away. Ultimately, I'm still waiting for Bottas to show a period of form which is truly impressive. Being comparable to a sluggish starting Hamilton to open 2018 doesn't cut it for me.

Yet, I think the partnership is very pleasing and highly effective. Ferrari's move is highly ambitious and radical for them, however, and it could be a game changer going forward. Bottas might be struggling to survive in 2019 - I'd say there's a good chance for it.

I'm not that impressed with Leclerc yet and my call on him is just a far more tenuous forecasting which I just happen to believe in. However, the season he's having himself is being overrated by most and his errors are often being glossed over because he's a rookie and because Charles has charmed most of us in his rookie season with his good drives and his down to earth personality. I just "feel" he'll learn quickly and be up to speed big-time by the 2nd half of 2019. He'll have more regular peaks than Bottas and will end up challenging Vettel in the end I reckon. That true challenge to Vettel would likely have to wait until 2020 though as he'll probably be far enough behind through 2019 to be accepting of a supporting role in a WDC race.

Was going to comment in the other thread you have bumped, but you pretty much mention some things i was going to say there. I think that Rosberg is overall the better driver than Bottas, but when you factor in everything, I don't think there is that much between them. In my personal opinion, the fact that there is little in it with the fact Hamilton and Bottas get on well makes it a slightly stronger team. I honestly think that because Hamilton is more relaxed about Bottas, (probably because he knows he doesn't have Rosberg's aggression), it seems to result in Hamilton being able to extract that bit more. That is to me what is now making Hamilton look outstanding and Bottas looking a bit on the weak site. The lack of pressure on Hamilton from his team mate. We will see what hapens, but I wouldn't be 100% certain about Ocon being in Mercedes in 2020. But fair enough we can have different opinions.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:16 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Was going to comment in the other thread you have bumped, but you pretty much mention some things i was going to say there. I think that Rosberg is overall the better driver than Bottas, but when you factor in everything, I don't think there is that much between them. In my personal opinion, the fact that there is little in it with the fact Hamilton and Bottas get on well makes it a slightly stronger team. I honestly think that because Hamilton is more relaxed about Bottas, (probably because he knows he doesn't have Rosberg's aggression), it seems to result in Hamilton being able to extract that bit more. That is to me what is now making Hamilton look outstanding and Bottas looking a bit on the weak site. The lack of pressure on Hamilton from his team mate. We will see what hapens, but I wouldn't be 100% certain about Ocon being in Mercedes in 2020. But fair enough we can have different opinions.


At the same time I don't see Ocon as the next coming of Hamilton either. There can be no denying how "united" Mercedes currently is with HAM-BOT as their two pilots. Bottas can be forgiven for having the wind knocked out of him by Hamilton's form and also by Mercedes operations (Ham is favoured - I think it's quite clear) but he's got to find a way to get himself back in the game on pure pace. Sochi might be good for him.

The thing about Bottas' 2020 is that I have no idea how this supposed option works and all the clauses and provisos which may be involved. I think it's clear that Hamilton wanted Bottas to stay on and he may yet have a substantial say again in activating the option for 2020.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:41 am 
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Invade wrote:
Invade wrote:
Actually slash that old prediction. I expect a 3-way fight next year and as such there are more points to lose if you don't have the edge. I think Bottas will actually score a lesser % of points on Hamilton in 2018 than he will do in 2017. Let's say 77%.

He will be better but Max and Dan will feature heavily alongside Lewis and Seb and Bottas will be 5th or 6th best of the bunch still.



Well the final prediction here was 77%...

Right now we're at 281-171 so thats... 61%

Bottas had some bad luck but that's still a whoopin'.


The only way I can see Bottas doing better going forward is if Mercedes build another truly dominant car, giving Bottas a chance at the WDC, or if Hamilton seriously loses a lot of motivation were he to win a 5th title and take it easy.

Hamilton is way too good for Bottas to simply reach through further experience and improvement and hitting some imagined prime of his careerm for Hamilton is in a different league as a racing driver.

Mercedes should get Ocon in the car sooner rather than later I reckon. Leclerc will probably have the beating of Bottas within half a season in 2019.

61% is not representative, Bottas has had more bad luck that Hamilton plus now he is on track to help Hamilton.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:46 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
Invade wrote:
Actually slash that old prediction. I expect a 3-way fight next year and as such there are more points to lose if you don't have the edge. I think Bottas will actually score a lesser % of points on Hamilton in 2018 than he will do in 2017. Let's say 77%.

He will be better but Max and Dan will feature heavily alongside Lewis and Seb and Bottas will be 5th or 6th best of the bunch still.



Well the final prediction here was 77%...

Right now we're at 281-171 so thats... 61%

Bottas had some bad luck but that's still a whoopin'.


The only way I can see Bottas doing better going forward is if Mercedes build another truly dominant car, giving Bottas a chance at the WDC, or if Hamilton seriously loses a lot of motivation were he to win a 5th title and take it easy.

Hamilton is way too good for Bottas to simply reach through further experience and improvement and hitting some imagined prime of his careerm for Hamilton is in a different league as a racing driver.

Mercedes should get Ocon in the car sooner rather than later I reckon. Leclerc will probably have the beating of Bottas within half a season in 2019.

61% is not representative, Bottas has had more bad luck that Hamilton plus now he is on track to help Hamilton.


It doesn't matter. The figures were much closer in 2017 but again in that year Hamilton was much better than Bottas. Talking about Bottas doing better wasn't in direct connection with the specific percentage but the general point that Hamilton has been much better than him during this 2-year stretch. I don't see Bottas being competitive other than for the special circumstances I suggested earlier.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:32 am 
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Invade wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
Invade wrote:
Actually slash that old prediction. I expect a 3-way fight next year and as such there are more points to lose if you don't have the edge. I think Bottas will actually score a lesser % of points on Hamilton in 2018 than he will do in 2017. Let's say 77%.

He will be better but Max and Dan will feature heavily alongside Lewis and Seb and Bottas will be 5th or 6th best of the bunch still.



Well the final prediction here was 77%...

Right now we're at 281-171 so thats... 61%

Bottas had some bad luck but that's still a whoopin'.


The only way I can see Bottas doing better going forward is if Mercedes build another truly dominant car, giving Bottas a chance at the WDC, or if Hamilton seriously loses a lot of motivation were he to win a 5th title and take it easy.

Hamilton is way too good for Bottas to simply reach through further experience and improvement and hitting some imagined prime of his careerm for Hamilton is in a different league as a racing driver.

Mercedes should get Ocon in the car sooner rather than later I reckon. Leclerc will probably have the beating of Bottas within half a season in 2019.

61% is not representative, Bottas has had more bad luck that Hamilton plus now he is on track to help Hamilton.


It doesn't matter. The figures were much closer in 2017 but again in that year Hamilton was much better than Bottas. Talking about Bottas doing better wasn't in direct connection with the specific percentage but the general point that Hamilton has been much better than him during this 2-year stretch. I don't see Bottas being competitive other than for the special circumstances I suggested earlier.

Still it's not fair on Bottas and most of the grid would have a hard time against Hamilton and that includes Ocon who's neck and neck with Perez.

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2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: Currently 2nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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