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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:36 am 
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Maybe I should wait for today's race.

But what the heck, I am not being paid to write predictions. It's all a bit of fun.

So here it goes.

Hamilton will win again this year's WDC for three simple reasons:

1. He is just better than Vettel. Vettel is not good enough to beat Hamilton, unless he has clear car advantage. In my mind is clear that Vettel when under pressure he struggles. He showed it last year. This year he is doing it again and up to now Vettel has failed to fully capitalise when he had a car advantage.

2. Mercedes overall will have a better package. In France they were stronger, today probably as well, barring some catastrophe. Ferrari will now have to play catch-up again and we know how that usually works out.

3. Ferrari have a weak line-up. Kimi cannot really help Vettel, whereas Bottas is always there about, even if Hamilton overall is better than him.

I will be happy to be proven wrong, because I am not a big fan of Hamilton. But Mercedes have given him the car and he will do what is required. Ferrari is close but so far away and Vettel simply cannot compensate for whatever deficiencies his car might have with his driving skill. He is good, but not good enough to push Hamilton enough into error.

Feel free to bump this thread through the year to see how my prediction goes.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

What could possibly go wrong?

:D :D :D


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:23 am 
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It's not exactly a bold prediction. At around the half-way point in the season Hamilton and Mercedes are leading the championship. You're probably right.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:32 am 
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Over the last two race weekends, bar stopping at Clintons to buy some wrapping paper, Vettel has been going out of his way to gift wrap this WDC for Hamilton.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:35 am 
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Toby. wrote:
It's not exactly a bold prediction. At around the half-way point in the season Hamilton and Mercedes are leading the championship. You're probably right.


Maybe I can challenge FrusElder's crystal ball here with this one.

Who will be the top 3 teams, in no particular order, in this years WCC?

In all seriousness, I don't think, all things being equal, that many people would be betting against Hamilton to win the championship this year

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:44 am 
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as much as i dont want him to (or hamilton i might add) i still think vettel is going to sneak it. just gut instinct.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:22 am 
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I agree with your three reasons generally but I do feel Hamilton has been lack lustre this season. Vettel needs to cut out the errors and just pack points away. The good news for him is that when the Merc is not quickest Hamilton is nowhere so he can get a buffer.

So right now I would make Hamilton slight favourite but that could change on a six pence.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:42 am 
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Well he's ahead now and Ferrari have probably been the overall better car to this point. Mainly due to bad luck for Ferrari tbf.

All of this when Hamilton hasn't been driving very well and not seeing off his teammate as you would expect a driver of his ability to.

So yeah I'd say that's probably a prediction most will share at this point. By the end of next week the Mercedes will have probably been the best car overall for the season (barring anything surprising at Silverstone) and they usually develop better than Ferrari over a season.

If I was putting money on it I'd go for Hamilton & Mercedes for this year's title at this point.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:44 pm 
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This aged well. :P


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:48 pm 
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I disagree :lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:53 pm 
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OMG I totally jinxed Hamilton!

Evil eye and all that!

Magical thinking FTW!

:lol: :lol: :lol:

PS: I did say barring a catastrophe right?

:lol: :D


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:54 pm 
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Of course, he has the fastest car by half a second and a compliant team mate. This does not even deserve a thread.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:54 pm 
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Llotyhy wrote:
This aged well. :P

All points at that :lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:57 pm 
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Quark wrote:
Of course, he has the fastest car by half a second and a compliant team mate. This does not even deserve a thread.

When you post a blatant lie and attempt to pass it off as well-known information...


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:58 pm 
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Always funny when someone speaks too soon :lol:


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:24 pm 
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It couldn't be any closer at this point. The cars have been pretty much equally good over the past 9 races, while Hamilton and Vettel are pretty comparable as well. Vettel has been fast but made a few errors, Hamilton has been largely error-free but doesn't always bring his A-game in speed.

Then throw in this new spec Mercedes PU, of which introduction was delayed out of reliability fears, that blew up already today...

Everything's possible at this point.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:27 pm 
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He wins if he has the best car or if Vettel does some Vettel thing. He's not a better driver. They're on equal footing and it will come down to the cars.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:14 pm 
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Can you make this same post again when Hamilton next takes a 10+ points lead please? :lol:

Germany/Hungary will be the real tests of whether the Mercedes upgrades have pulled them clear, they were quicker than I expected in Austria but it could just have been a circuit that suited them I guess.

The one thing I hadn't thought of is reliability, they held off on introducing this engine due to concerns and now this, possible cause for concern there.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:15 pm 
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All this talk about Vettel not being good enough to beat Hamilton made that overtake all the sweeter.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:16 pm 
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mds wrote:
It couldn't be any closer at this point. The cars have been pretty much equally good over the past 9 races, while Hamilton and Vettel are pretty comparable as well. Vettel has been fast but made a few errors, Hamilton has been largely error-free but doesn't always bring his A-game in speed.

This is how I see it too. :thumbup:


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:02 pm 
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I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:48 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.

yeah I've noticed his performance has been a little, well, variable, too. Particularly in qualifying where you'd normally bet the house on him extracting the most from the car. He still looks very competent when leading from the front but when back in the pack he seems to have lost a bit of his shine


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:48 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
mds wrote:
It couldn't be any closer at this point. The cars have been pretty much equally good over the past 9 races, while Hamilton and Vettel are pretty comparable as well. Vettel has been fast but made a few errors, Hamilton has been largely error-free but doesn't always bring his A-game in speed.

This is how I see it too. :thumbup:

yeah, same.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:59 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.

yeah I've noticed his performance has been a little, well, variable, too. Particularly in qualifying where you'd normally bet the house on him extracting the most from the car. He still looks very competent when leading from the front but when back in the pack he seems to have lost a bit of his shine

I'm wondering what the explanation is for it. I doubt age has anything to do with it as he was 100% on his game last season and he's just 33 years old (an age where most drivers are very much in their prime). He did seem to have a harder time than usual getting to grips with this car but even that would be odd as an explanation. He has always been known for adapting to new tracks/cars pretty much instantaneously.

One thing is for certain though, he has not looked like himself. In some ways, I'd say the same for Vettel (although less pronounced). There have been more mistakes from Seb than we're used to seeing. Both Bottas and Raikkonen have been a lot closer to their teammates in speed this year too. It's just bizarre at this point.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:17 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.

yeah I've noticed his performance has been a little, well, variable, too. Particularly in qualifying where you'd normally bet the house on him extracting the most from the car. He still looks very competent when leading from the front but when back in the pack he seems to have lost a bit of his shine

I'm wondering what the explanation is for it. I doubt age has anything to do with it as he was 100% on his game last season and he's just 33 years old (an age where most drivers are very much in their prime). He did seem to have a harder time than usual getting to grips with this car but even that would be odd as an explanation. He has always been known for adapting to new tracks/cars pretty much instantaneously.

One thing is for certain though, he has not looked like himself. In some ways, I'd say the same for Vettel (although less pronounced). There have been more mistakes from Seb than we're used to seeing. Both Bottas and Raikkonen have been a lot closer to their teammates in speed this year too. It's just bizarre at this point.

Perhaps, as you say, he's just been a lot more cautious and playing the percentage game, since it's clear that the dominance of previous years has eroded. It's an interesting point that both Bottas and Kimi have, indeed, looked a lot closer to their team mates than before, although I'm inclined to think that might be coincidence: Bottas now has a year in the team behind him and is finding his feet; whereas Kimi has been improving steadily each year as the car becomes easier to handle, given his narrow operating window.

It's hard to say what the cause is, but I don't remember a season where he's been this variable before. When the car's good, he is too, but when Ferrari look to be on top then he looks a lot less strong


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:17 pm 
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I think that Mercedes dominance from 2014-2016 has made Hamilton a bit soft at wheel-to-wheel racing. He spent three years of his career solely racing against Rosberg. In those years, he had to be ultra consistent. If he suffered a DNF, it would be a massive blow for the WDC as Nico would almost certainly put 25 points on him. Nowadays he’s a much more pragmatic driver.

The first time I really noticed this was at Hungary 2015. He braked about 10 meters earlier than Vettel, Rosberg and Raikkonen at the start. The McLaren Lewis would never have surrendered the lead so easily.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:24 pm 
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Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.

yeah I've noticed his performance has been a little, well, variable, too. Particularly in qualifying where you'd normally bet the house on him extracting the most from the car. He still looks very competent when leading from the front but when back in the pack he seems to have lost a bit of his shine

I'm wondering what the explanation is for it. I doubt age has anything to do with it as he was 100% on his game last season and he's just 33 years old (an age where most drivers are very much in their prime). He did seem to have a harder time than usual getting to grips with this car but even that would be odd as an explanation. He has always been known for adapting to new tracks/cars pretty much instantaneously.

One thing is for certain though, he has not looked like himself. In some ways, I'd say the same for Vettel (although less pronounced). There have been more mistakes from Seb than we're used to seeing. Both Bottas and Raikkonen have been a lot closer to their teammates in speed this year too. It's just bizarre at this point.

Perhaps, as you say, he's just been a lot more cautious and playing the percentage game, since it's clear that the dominance of previous years has eroded. It's an interesting point that both Bottas and Kimi have, indeed, looked a lot closer to their team mates than before, although I'm inclined to think that might be coincidence: Bottas now has a year in the team behind him and is finding his feet; whereas Kimi has been improving steadily each year as the car becomes easier to handle, given his narrow operating window.

It's hard to say what the cause is, but I don't remember a season where he's been this variable before. When the car's good, he is too, but when Ferrari look to be on top then he looks a lot less strong


He needs to work on his mental game a bit. He shouldn't be needing a grovelling apology for a tactical mistake mid race. The team should just be able to tell him the situation is and what he needs to do. Disect the rights and wrongs in the post race debrief. The fact that Merc felt it was needed mid race was very telling and Hamilton still basically gave up for 15 laps. His attitude at the point where he came out of the pits should have been "right, time to go get a famous victory". I like Hamilton's character a lot but he is far to defeatist when things start going wrong. He needs to remember that the worlds not against him and things go right for him more often than almost anyone else on the grid.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:35 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
I will say this; as someone who has seen every race of Hamilton's career; he doesn't seem to be the same guy this season. Not sure how to put it exactly but he's unrecognizable behind the wheel IMO. The one thing you could always say for Lewis since he was a rookie was that he was a man of action. He made things happen. He was F1's top overtaker for years before moving to Mercedes and transitioning to mostly being at the front. If he had to make a pass or pull something off, he was a guy who could make it happen.

This season, I am seeing a driver who seems very risk-averse, almost to a fault. Part of it is the Mercedes car does struggle quite a bit in dirty air even relative to other F1 cars but I think Hamilton now seems easily annoyed or frustrated when the tables turn against him. Perhaps he's been a little spoiled by years of being able to control races from the front but he doesn't quite seem at home when having to come through the pack like the hard-charging youngster he used to be.

Before anyone says it, no I am not blaming him for what happened in the race. I am just noticing a difference in his performance this season. And it really is this season. I would not have said any of this last year. Qualifying is another place where he seems different. That anvil of a Q3 lap that he drops at the end of the session doesn't seem to be there this year. he hasn't really been his usual self on Saturdays at all.

yeah I've noticed his performance has been a little, well, variable, too. Particularly in qualifying where you'd normally bet the house on him extracting the most from the car. He still looks very competent when leading from the front but when back in the pack he seems to have lost a bit of his shine

I'm wondering what the explanation is for it. I doubt age has anything to do with it as he was 100% on his game last season and he's just 33 years old (an age where most drivers are very much in their prime). He did seem to have a harder time than usual getting to grips with this car but even that would be odd as an explanation. He has always been known for adapting to new tracks/cars pretty much instantaneously.

One thing is for certain though, he has not looked like himself. In some ways, I'd say the same for Vettel (although less pronounced). There have been more mistakes from Seb than we're used to seeing. Both Bottas and Raikkonen have been a lot closer to their teammates in speed this year too. It's just bizarre at this point.

Perhaps, as you say, he's just been a lot more cautious and playing the percentage game, since it's clear that the dominance of previous years has eroded. It's an interesting point that both Bottas and Kimi have, indeed, looked a lot closer to their team mates than before, although I'm inclined to think that might be coincidence: Bottas now has a year in the team behind him and is finding his feet; whereas Kimi has been improving steadily each year as the car becomes easier to handle, given his narrow operating window.

It's hard to say what the cause is, but I don't remember a season where he's been this variable before. When the car's good, he is too, but when Ferrari look to be on top then he looks a lot less strong


He needs to work on his mental game a bit. He shouldn't be needing a grovelling apology for a tactical mistake mid race. The team should just be able to tell him the situation is and what he needs to do. Disect the rights and wrongs in the post race debrief. The fact that Merc felt it was needed mid race was very telling and Hamilton still basically gave up for 15 laps. His attitude at the point where he came out of the pits should have been "right, time to go get a famous victory". I like Hamilton's character a lot but he is far to defeatist when things start going wrong. He needs to remember that the worlds not against him and things go right for him more often than almost anyone else on the grid.

No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:44 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:11 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.

We've seen it happen with Max this year too. Charging hard in F1 is a double-edged sword. With experience, you learn that the DNFs hurt you a lot more than a few spectacular passes help you. When you are forced to race in the pack, you are subject to a much higher probability of being caught in an incident or of getting unlucky in some way. You can pull of an amazing victory by charging to the front but then have a collision in the next race that totally negates it.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:44 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.

We've seen it happen with Max this year too. Charging hard in F1 is a double-edged sword. With experience, you learn that the DNFs hurt you a lot more than a few spectacular passes help you. When you are forced to race in the pack, you are subject to a much higher probability of being caught in an incident or of getting unlucky in some way. You can pull of an amazing victory by charging to the front but then have a collision in the next race that totally negates it.

Indeed. Lewis both won and lost races in his early career by taking risks, and I think he has since learned that this is not the best mentality for a title challenge. His conservative approach is not a new thing, he's been cautious at the start of races for a number of years now, with an overall benefit in my opinion. Max on the other hand won the race today because of a risky overtake on Kimi early in the race that paid off, but overall this season that risk-taking has cost him far more points than it has gained. I think this also suggests to me that he hasn't learned any lessons, hasn't changed his approach and will therefore most likely get caught up in more incidents before the season is out.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:50 pm 
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j man wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.

We've seen it happen with Max this year too. Charging hard in F1 is a double-edged sword. With experience, you learn that the DNFs hurt you a lot more than a few spectacular passes help you. When you are forced to race in the pack, you are subject to a much higher probability of being caught in an incident or of getting unlucky in some way. You can pull of an amazing victory by charging to the front but then have a collision in the next race that totally negates it.

Indeed. Lewis both won and lost races in his early career by taking risks, and I think he has since learned that this is not the best mentality for a title challenge. His conservative approach is not a new thing, he's been cautious at the start of races for a number of years now, with an overall benefit in my opinion. Max on the other hand won the race today because of a risky overtake on Kimi early in the race that paid off, but overall this season that risk-taking has cost him far more points than it has gained. I think this also suggests to me that he hasn't learned any lessons, hasn't changed his approach and will therefore most likely get caught up in more incidents before the season is out.


But he can afford to. What is there to play for, for the RBR drivers? Nothing but the odd win and a few podiums here and there. I don't think Max cares too much for finishing fifth in the WDC by playing it safe rather than maybe sixth or seventh, having taken some risks and some results out of that.

Max has now paid a visit to the podium 4 times in 5 races, he's regaining confidence and driving well. He hit a slump, there has been a lot of focus on it, but he seems clear of that now.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:06 pm 
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mds wrote:
j man wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
No I don't think he needs to work on his mental side at all. This isn't someone with anything to prove to be blunt. This is a 4-time WDC who is really at a stage of cementing his legacy.

I do agree with your assessment of how he responds to these types of adversity nowadays. I can recall Hamilton crashing at the end of the 2009 Italian GP simply because he wasn't willing to give up and was chasing Button in the faster Brawn car to try to gain that last position. His mentality seems to have really changed a lot. He does seem to want to win from the front and gets very frustrated when he is thrust into the pack. Part of it, again, is probably that the Mercedes is not good when following other cars but I think part of it is learned as well. His period of dominance came by leading from the front while the hard-charging younger Lewis often fell short of the WDC. I think in F1, the best way to win titles is kind of boring. You want to set pole and control the race from the lead. That's how almost all multiple WDC drivers did their damage.


Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.

We've seen it happen with Max this year too. Charging hard in F1 is a double-edged sword. With experience, you learn that the DNFs hurt you a lot more than a few spectacular passes help you. When you are forced to race in the pack, you are subject to a much higher probability of being caught in an incident or of getting unlucky in some way. You can pull of an amazing victory by charging to the front but then have a collision in the next race that totally negates it.

Indeed. Lewis both won and lost races in his early career by taking risks, and I think he has since learned that this is not the best mentality for a title challenge. His conservative approach is not a new thing, he's been cautious at the start of races for a number of years now, with an overall benefit in my opinion. Max on the other hand won the race today because of a risky overtake on Kimi early in the race that paid off, but overall this season that risk-taking has cost him far more points than it has gained. I think this also suggests to me that he hasn't learned any lessons, hasn't changed his approach and will therefore most likely get caught up in more incidents before the season is out.


But he can afford to. What is there to play for, for the RBR drivers? Nothing but the odd win and a few podiums here and there. I don't think Max cares too much for finishing fifth in the WDC by playing it safe rather than maybe sixth or seventh, having taken some risks and some results out of that.

Max has now paid a visit to the podium 4 times in 5 races, he's regaining confidence and driving well. He hit a slump, there has been a lot of focus on it, but he seems clear of that now.


Verstappen is only 53 points off the championship lead. Sounds a lot but it's about 21 in old money. With 12 races to go he still has a slim chance of a championship run.

I think the WDC is still fairly open.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:10 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
mds wrote:
j man wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

Yes, you may be right. In his earlier career Hamilton did a lot of charging around for little result.

We've seen it happen with Max this year too. Charging hard in F1 is a double-edged sword. With experience, you learn that the DNFs hurt you a lot more than a few spectacular passes help you. When you are forced to race in the pack, you are subject to a much higher probability of being caught in an incident or of getting unlucky in some way. You can pull of an amazing victory by charging to the front but then have a collision in the next race that totally negates it.

Indeed. Lewis both won and lost races in his early career by taking risks, and I think he has since learned that this is not the best mentality for a title challenge. His conservative approach is not a new thing, he's been cautious at the start of races for a number of years now, with an overall benefit in my opinion. Max on the other hand won the race today because of a risky overtake on Kimi early in the race that paid off, but overall this season that risk-taking has cost him far more points than it has gained. I think this also suggests to me that he hasn't learned any lessons, hasn't changed his approach and will therefore most likely get caught up in more incidents before the season is out.


But he can afford to. What is there to play for, for the RBR drivers? Nothing but the odd win and a few podiums here and there. I don't think Max cares too much for finishing fifth in the WDC by playing it safe rather than maybe sixth or seventh, having taken some risks and some results out of that.

Max has now paid a visit to the podium 4 times in 5 races, he's regaining confidence and driving well. He hit a slump, there has been a lot of focus on it, but he seems clear of that now.


Verstappen is only 53 points off the championship lead. Sounds a lot but it's about 21 in old money. With 12 races to go he still has a slim chance of a championship run.

I think the WDC is still fairly open.


Disagree - it's between Vettel and Hamilton. Red Bull can challenge now and then but a sustained challenge until the end of the season, I don't think so. They aren't contenders often enough.

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:12 pm 
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mds wrote:

Disagree - it's between Vettel and Hamilton. Red Bull can challenge now and then but a sustained challenge until the end of the season, I don't think so. They aren't contenders often enough.


Verstappen would need things to fall his way. I'm not suggesting his current attitude is wrong. Given the circumstances he needs to be making things happen. Without his bad run he would have been almost up there with Hamilton and Vettel though which shows that the package is capable speed wise.

Edit - Just do some very quick calculations and I think with an error free season Verstappen could just about be leading the WDC. So the package is capable of competing.


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:31 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
mds wrote:

Disagree - it's between Vettel and Hamilton. Red Bull can challenge now and then but a sustained challenge until the end of the season, I don't think so. They aren't contenders often enough.

Verstappen would need things to fall his way. I'm not suggesting his current attitude is wrong. Given the circumstances he needs to be making things happen. Without his bad run he would have been almost up there with Hamilton and Vettel though which shows that the package is capable speed wise.

Edit - Just do some very quick calculations and I think with an error free season Verstappen could just about be leading the WDC. So the package is capable of competing.

That's an error-free season for him and keeping the errors of the others, though. Monaco was the only race Red Bull should have won on pure pace this year (with the possible exception of Bahrain, since nobody really knows).

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PostPosted: Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:32 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
mds wrote:

Disagree - it's between Vettel and Hamilton. Red Bull can challenge now and then but a sustained challenge until the end of the season, I don't think so. They aren't contenders often enough.


Verstappen would need things to fall his way. I'm not suggesting his current attitude is wrong. Given the circumstances he needs to be making things happen. Without his bad run he would have been almost up there with Hamilton and Vettel though which shows that the package is capable speed wise.

Edit - Just do some very quick calculations and I think with an error free season Verstappen could just about be leading the WDC. So the package is capable of competing.


But nothing is ever perfect. And only a perfect Verstappen season would match Hamilton's and Vettel's seasons, both of whom have had some hiccups. I don't think their bad luck or errors will keep on playing out like this to be honest.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:05 am 
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mds wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
mds wrote:

Disagree - it's between Vettel and Hamilton. Red Bull can challenge now and then but a sustained challenge until the end of the season, I don't think so. They aren't contenders often enough.


Verstappen would need things to fall his way. I'm not suggesting his current attitude is wrong. Given the circumstances he needs to be making things happen. Without his bad run he would have been almost up there with Hamilton and Vettel though which shows that the package is capable speed wise.

Edit - Just do some very quick calculations and I think with an error free season Verstappen could just about be leading the WDC. So the package is capable of competing.


But nothing is ever perfect. And only a perfect Verstappen season would match Hamilton's and Vettel's seasons, both of whom have had some hiccups. I don't think their bad luck or errors will keep on playing out like this to be honest.


No, I don't think Verstappen will be in contention at the final race. I'm more remarking that a championship run is a possibility. I mean, he wouldn't have needed to be perfect to be up there. Just take out the Baku crash and the Monaco FP3 crash and he'd probably be just about within a race win of the championship leaders.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:54 am 
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Good thread.

Hamilton has simply not been the same driver since the Brake by Wire sytem was introduced in F1 around 2014. Compounded with the computer like Mercedes(FRIC at the time) suspension he has lost some of his strength which is braking.

He may not admit it, but the Mercedes despite giving him 3 WDC has never been his car and I suspect he would do much better(in terms of driving and especially braking) if he was at RedBull or even Ferrari.
The guy has the worst confidence under braking among the top guys. Just notice how much earlier he usually brakes at the start because he doesn't trust his car.

The only thing saving his bacon is his racepace where he is untouchable because he somehow manages to use less fuel than his teammates.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 10:50 am 
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Pullrod wrote:
Good thread.

Hamilton has simply not been the same driver since the Brake by Wire sytem was introduced in F1 around 2014. Compounded with the computer like Mercedes(FRIC at the time) suspension he has lost some of his strength which is braking.

He may not admit it, but the Mercedes despite giving him 3 WDC has never been his car and I suspect he would do much better(in terms of driving and especially braking) if he was at RedBull or even Ferrari.
The guy has the worst confidence under braking among the top guys. Just notice how much earlier he usually brakes at the start because he doesn't trust his car.

The only thing saving his bacon is his racepace where he is untouchable because he somehow manages to use less fuel than his teammates.


What the ......

Never mind it just seems to get ridiculous as the weekends tick away, I can't believe what I just read!


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:05 am 
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Pullrod wrote:
Good thread.

Hamilton has simply not been the same driver since the Brake by Wire sytem was introduced in F1 around 2014. Compounded with the computer like Mercedes(FRIC at the time) suspension he has lost some of his strength which is braking.

He may not admit it, but the Mercedes despite giving him 3 WDC has never been his car and I suspect he would do much better(in terms of driving and especially braking) if he was at RedBull or even Ferrari.
The guy has the worst confidence under braking among the top guys. Just notice how much earlier he usually brakes at the start because he doesn't trust his car.

The only thing saving his bacon is his racepace where he is untouchable because he somehow manages to use less fuel than his teammates.

Don’t know how to tell you this but all of these cars have brake by wire, and Ferrari and Red Bull had their own FRIC types systems.

Hamilton wouldn’t have done much, if any, better in another car than the drivers who were in them and he would have 3 fewer titles to his name.

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