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PostPosted: Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:47 pm 
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You know the drill!

We will tally the performance of these teams at a future date, but until then it's all about those predictions. Will Mercedes be challenged?


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:43 pm 
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Its a shame we didn't keep the 2019 thread running, it died because of the massive lead that Mercedes had leading up to the summer break, who would have thought of the Red Bull/Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season?

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:35 pm 
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If it's true that Mercedes started 2020 development early due to running away with the title then it will no doubt be more of the same - albeit maybe not quite as easy.

How much development focus will anyone want to pump into a 2020 spec car, with such massive change in 2021 coming - where the rewards for early focus could potentially be huge.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:17 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Its a shame we didn't keep the 2019 thread running, it died because of the massive lead that Mercedes had leading up to the summer break, who would have thought of the Red Bull/Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season?

Not sure about the comeback, Mercedes had 9 wins in the first half, 6 in the second. They were not threatened for a second frankly


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:45 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Its a shame we didn't keep the 2019 thread running, it died because of the massive lead that Mercedes had leading up to the summer break, who would have thought of the Red Bull/Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season?

Not sure about the comeback, Mercedes had 9 wins in the first half, 6 in the second. They were not threatened for a second frankly

They didn't have the best car for all of those wins, though.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:59 am 
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Exediron wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Its a shame we didn't keep the 2019 thread running, it died because of the massive lead that Mercedes had leading up to the summer break, who would have thought of the Red Bull/Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season?

Not sure about the comeback, Mercedes had 9 wins in the first half, 6 in the second. They were not threatened for a second frankly

They didn't have the best car for all of those wins, though.

No, I agree, but I didn't say that. Mercedes is such a well oiled machine that even in the back-burner they won comfortably, 1-2 in WDC and the WCC. Without the best car. Which is to their credit. All I was saying is that it really wasn't much of a comeback for Ferrari/RB.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:51 am 
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I think they will.

But probably not by Ferrari - although I expect them to come out of the blocks fast, a year of inconsistency and poor strategy will again leave them behind.

Red Bull, however, have made strides this year and the Honda engine is looking stronger and stronger. Max is getting very consistent, so I can see a challenge from him.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:55 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Its a shame we didn't keep the 2019 thread running, it died because of the massive lead that Mercedes had leading up to the summer break, who would have thought of the Red Bull/Ferrari comeback in the second half of the season?

Not sure about the comeback, Mercedes had 9 wins in the first half, 6 in the second. They were not threatened for a second frankly

They won 5 races after the summer break one of these gifted in Mexico by Verstappen in qualifying otherwise he surely would have won, I'm sure in the analysis the Red Bull would have been viewed as being the fastest car?

So 4 race wins were no doubt Mercedes gets viewed as being the fastest, the 3 wins of Ferrari and 2 races were Red Bull might be seen as the quickest in Mexico and Brazil.

After the summer break the thread would have been far more interesting but of course wouldn't have changed the outcome being easily in favour of Mercedes but it would have been nice to see were Ferrari and Red Bull would have ended up relative to one another.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:02 pm 
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I don't see why having the fastest car (Ferrari or Red Bull) means you have the best car. Fast is important, but it is not everything. It's not the whole package.

A 70's era muscle car will leave a 70s era Porsche 911 far behind at the local drag strip, where speed is the only criteria. But the Porsche will always reach the finish line first in a 2-hour road course event.

Give credit where it's due. Mercedes won the most races (15/21, or 72%). Mercedes had the most successful car in 2019 (by far), which means Mercedes had the BEST car in 2019, period.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:25 pm 
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DFWdude wrote:
I don't see why having the fastest car (Ferrari or Red Bull) means you have the best car. Fast is important, but it is not everything. It's not the whole package.

A 70's era muscle car will leave a 70s era Porsche 911 far behind at the local drag strip, where speed is the only criteria. But the Porsche will always reach the finish line first in a 2-hour road course event.

Give credit where it's due. Mercedes won the most races (15/21, or 72%). Mercedes had the most successful car in 2019 (by far), which means Mercedes had the BEST car in 2019, period.

I'm not completely sure of the analogy, F1 cars aren't racing on drag strips and their speed isn't determined by how fast they might be in a straight line.

However it's true that there doesn't need to be detailed analysis to determine that the Mercedes was the best car but then again no one said otherwise.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:25 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
DFWdude wrote:
I don't see why having the fastest car (Ferrari or Red Bull) means you have the best car. Fast is important, but it is not everything. It's not the whole package.

A 70's era muscle car will leave a 70s era Porsche 911 far behind at the local drag strip, where speed is the only criteria. But the Porsche will always reach the finish line first in a 2-hour road course event.

Give credit where it's due. Mercedes won the most races (15/21, or 72%). Mercedes had the most successful car in 2019 (by far), which means Mercedes had the BEST car in 2019, period.

I'm not completely sure of the analogy, F1 cars aren't racing on drag strips and their speed isn't determined by how fast they might be in a straight line.

However it's true that there doesn't need to be detailed analysis to determine that the Mercedes was the best car but then again no one said otherwise.

Both Exediron and Siao7 said so in their posts above. I didn't make it up.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:29 pm 
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DFWdude wrote:
pokerman wrote:
DFWdude wrote:
I don't see why having the fastest car (Ferrari or Red Bull) means you have the best car. Fast is important, but it is not everything. It's not the whole package.

A 70's era muscle car will leave a 70s era Porsche 911 far behind at the local drag strip, where speed is the only criteria. But the Porsche will always reach the finish line first in a 2-hour road course event.

Give credit where it's due. Mercedes won the most races (15/21, or 72%). Mercedes had the most successful car in 2019 (by far), which means Mercedes had the BEST car in 2019, period.

I'm not completely sure of the analogy, F1 cars aren't racing on drag strips and their speed isn't determined by how fast they might be in a straight line.

However it's true that there doesn't need to be detailed analysis to determine that the Mercedes was the best car but then again no one said otherwise.

Both Exediron and Siao7 said so in their posts above. I didn't make it up.

They seemed to be disagreeing with one another but still I didn't see either of them saying that the Mercedes wasn't the best car over the season.

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2013: 5th Place
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Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:04 pm 
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DFWdude wrote:
Both Exediron and Siao7 said so in their posts above. I didn't make it up.
pokerman wrote:
They seemed to be disagreeing with one another but still I didn't see either of them saying that the Mercedes wasn't the best car over the season.

Yeah, I don't think either of us was saying the Merc wasn't the best car over the year. I said it wasn't the best car every time it won (and Siao7 agreed with that) but over the balance of the season I'd say it was clearly best.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:25 am 
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Exediron wrote:
DFWdude wrote:
Both Exediron and Siao7 said so in their posts above. I didn't make it up.
pokerman wrote:
They seemed to be disagreeing with one another but still I didn't see either of them saying that the Mercedes wasn't the best car over the season.

Yeah, I don't think either of us was saying the Merc wasn't the best car over the year. I said it wasn't the best car every time it won (and Siao7 agreed with that) but over the balance of the season I'd say it was clearly best.

:thumbup:

Just to be clear, I agree with this. They didn't always have the best car, but over the whole year, how can you argue against them?


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:44 pm 
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At Abu Dhabi Mercedes had a clear 0.5 to 0.75s / lap advantage over the Red Bull in the opening laps. That is an eternity and the gap can't be expected to close by 2020. I say, Mercedes will start the 2020 season clearly in front of both Red Bull and Ferrari. My guess is 0.5 sec over Red Bull in Australia. Ferrari is somewhat of a question mark where they'd be.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:52 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
At Abu Dhabi Mercedes had a clear 0.5 to 0.75s / lap advantage over the Red Bull in the opening laps. That is an eternity and the gap can't be expected to close by 2020. I say, Mercedes will start the 2020 season clearly in front of both Red Bull and Ferrari. My guess is 0.5 sec over Red Bull in Australia. Ferrari is somewhat of a question mark where they'd be.


I agree. Mercedes are the catalyst in that they will always have a car that can compete each race. Ferrari and Red Bull fluctuate their pace way too wildly throughout the season, and have yet to really demonstrate being consistent over an entire season.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 5:26 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
At Abu Dhabi Mercedes had a clear 0.5 to 0.75s / lap advantage over the Red Bull in the opening laps. That is an eternity and the gap can't be expected to close by 2020. I say, Mercedes will start the 2020 season clearly in front of both Red Bull and Ferrari. My guess is 0.5 sec over Red Bull in Australia. Ferrari is somewhat of a question mark where they'd be.


I agree. Mercedes are the catalyst in that they will always have a car that can compete each race. Ferrari and Red Bull fluctuate their pace way too wildly throughout the season, and have yet to really demonstrate being consistent over an entire season.


And even in races where Mercedes is not the best, more often than not Hamilton is right on the tail of car#1. When Ferrari and Red Bull aren't on pace, they are nowhere.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:55 pm 
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If Mercedes were developing there 2020 car as early as was rumoured, then it may be a carbon copy of 2019. Red Bull sure came stronger in the second half of the year, and Honda have developed fantastically - but Mercedes PU development wont be static if components are going to be frozen from 2021.

Another solid year for Mercedes next year with the usual circuits where the opposing teams strengths are accentuated.

You never know though! Be nice to see McLaren strong.


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:03 am 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
At Abu Dhabi Mercedes had a clear 0.5 to 0.75s / lap advantage over the Red Bull in the opening laps. That is an eternity and the gap can't be expected to close by 2020. I say, Mercedes will start the 2020 season clearly in front of both Red Bull and Ferrari. My guess is 0.5 sec over Red Bull in Australia. Ferrari is somewhat of a question mark where they'd be.

Abu Dhabi is a very strong track for Mercedes, just like Melbourne. The season opener and season closer have always favored Mercedes in the hybrid era, whatever the relative pecking order of the season.

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:42 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
At Abu Dhabi Mercedes had a clear 0.5 to 0.75s / lap advantage over the Red Bull in the opening laps. That is an eternity and the gap can't be expected to close by 2020. I say, Mercedes will start the 2020 season clearly in front of both Red Bull and Ferrari. My guess is 0.5 sec over Red Bull in Australia. Ferrari is somewhat of a question mark where they'd be.

Abu Dhabi is a very strong track for Mercedes, just like Melbourne. The season opener and season closer have always favored Mercedes in the hybrid era, whatever the relative pecking order of the season.


As I said, when it's a Mercedes track, the other teams are nowhere. When it's not a Mercedes track, Hamilton is still there and thereabouts. Given the same regs next year, I just cannot see Mercedes advantage disappearing. Red Bull as usual will start a second off with a string of excuses.


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:15 pm 
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Mercedes had a significant advantage this year. I think the changes FIA made to this year played into their hands. Ferrari have gone backwards. Though they had some strong qualifying. RBR was affected due to front wing rules and they usually they start slow. For the most part of this year they also had big disadvantage in qualifying.

I think RBR will challenge Mercedes next year. RBR need to be strong from first race. Their car works well in high altitudes but tracks like Monaco, Hungary, Singapore they need to start winning these again. If Max can win at least 6 races next year he has a chance to win the title.

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