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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:42 pm 
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tim3003 wrote:
I will be surprised if, assuming he's outclassed by Leclerc for the rest of the season, Vettel does not call time on his career. Surely as a 4x champ he cannot settle for being a number 2, and he can't claim that a move to another team would revitalise him. That worked when it was Ricciardo who beat him up, but he can't use the same excuse twice. I think his desire to win has waned, not least because he no longer believes he can beat Hamilton & Mercedes. With that mindset he cannot produce 100% any more..


with another 40 million euros to earn in 2020, obviously he won't quit unless Ferrari pays him out. While he's very wealthy, he's not like Rosberg whose parents are near billionaire status. That money would still mean something as he nears retirement. Not everything is about glory and sometimes, the practical considerations are unavoidable.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:44 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Every time a younger driver on a lower wage out performs a “star” driver, the star gets moved on.

Raikkonen 2009, moved out of Ferrari after being no better than Massa but earning 5x more

Alonso 2007, moved out of Mclaren as they could afford to let him go as they had a star in Hamilton who earned less than Alonso even when given a new deal for 08.

Vettel 2014, Ricciardo earned a fraction but was quicker. Vettel allowed to leave.

To a lesser extent Verstappen then did the same to Ricciardo but in a less extreme way.

Leclerc will get a pay rise but he is reportedly on 8x less than Vettel. Vettel might last one more year but no way that situation holds if it remains the same on track. Ferrari will not pay two drivers huge salaries. If Vettel is earning $30m and Leclerc $4m. I see them putting Leclerc up to $10m for next year and then letting Vettel leave, if Leclerc has another great 2020 then up to $15m. That’s what happened with Hamiton and Verstappen.


It's a contract and unless there are clear performance clauses required of Vettel, his salary should remain unchanged.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:47 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:28 pm 
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trento wrote:
tim3003 wrote:
I will be surprised if, assuming he's outclassed by Leclerc for the rest of the season, Vettel does not call time on his career. Surely as a 4x champ he cannot settle for being a number 2, and he can't claim that a move to another team would revitalise him. That worked when it was Ricciardo who beat him up, but he can't use the same excuse twice. I think his desire to win has waned, not least because he no longer believes he can beat Hamilton & Mercedes. With that mindset he cannot produce 100% any more..


with another 40 million euros to earn in 2020, obviously he won't quit unless Ferrari pays him out. While he's very wealthy, he's not like Rosberg whose parents are near billionaire status. That money would still mean something as he nears retirement. Not everything is about glory and sometimes, the practical considerations are unavoidable.


Rosberg's parents are billionaires?


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:04 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
trento wrote:
tim3003 wrote:
I will be surprised if, assuming he's outclassed by Leclerc for the rest of the season, Vettel does not call time on his career. Surely as a 4x champ he cannot settle for being a number 2, and he can't claim that a move to another team would revitalise him. That worked when it was Ricciardo who beat him up, but he can't use the same excuse twice. I think his desire to win has waned, not least because he no longer believes he can beat Hamilton & Mercedes. With that mindset he cannot produce 100% any more..

with another 40 million euros to earn in 2020, obviously he won't quit unless Ferrari pays him out. While he's very wealthy, he's not like Rosberg whose parents are near billionaire status. That money would still mean something as he nears retirement. Not everything is about glory and sometimes, the practical considerations are unavoidable.

Rosberg's parents are billionaires?

Nowhere near. From what I could find, Keke's net worth is estimated at ~$30m (less than Nico himself), and Sina doesn't appear to have any sizable net worth above and beyond that. They're very well off, but they're nothing like billionaires.

But that's irrelevant, frankly. Vettel has enough money to live comfortably for the rest of his life and still provide enough for his kids and grandkids to also live comfortably for the rest of their lives. I doubt money has anything to do with his decision to retire or not retire.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:10 pm 
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trento wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:11 pm 
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trento wrote:
tim3003 wrote:
I will be surprised if, assuming he's outclassed by Leclerc for the rest of the season, Vettel does not call time on his career. Surely as a 4x champ he cannot settle for being a number 2, and he can't claim that a move to another team would revitalise him. That worked when it was Ricciardo who beat him up, but he can't use the same excuse twice. I think his desire to win has waned, not least because he no longer believes he can beat Hamilton & Mercedes. With that mindset he cannot produce 100% any more..


with another 40 million euros to earn in 2020, obviously he won't quit unless Ferrari pays him out. While he's very wealthy, he's not like Rosberg whose parents are near billionaire status. That money would still mean something as he nears retirement. Not everything is about glory and sometimes, the practical considerations are unavoidable.


Vettel is wealthier than any Rosberg.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:49 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
trento wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.


Right now? No way.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:03 am 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.

Right now? No way.

Absolutely one of the five best. Beyond that, probably not.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:54 am 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
trento wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.


Right now? No way.


He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:56 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
trento wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
One has to ask. Is Vettel Raikkonen 2.0?

The latter half of their careers really told a different story making you re-assess their earlier career. Is Vettel just an average driver?

In 2014 he lost to Ricciardo. Then for 4 years he was many times much closer to Raikkonen than he should have been. Alonso completely thrashed Raikkonen like a wet rag, but Vettel was still losing in quali to a much older Raikkonen.

Now he's on his way to losing to Leclerc.

One feels sad for Vettel, really.


It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.


Right now? No way.


He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.

Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:01 am 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
trento wrote:

It's the unfortunate reality of the sport where sometimes a very good car mask the true abilities of the driver. So when you look at Vettel's performances against teammates, and those teammates performances against others, you roughly know where he stands.


TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.


Right now? No way.


He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.

Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


Overall I would say so. When your Vettel or Hamilton every mistake is under a microscope. Drivers outside of the top cars get a lot more leeway. I would back Vettel to outscore anyone apart from the aforementioned 4 over a season. Right now at least. I think in the coming years Ocon, Norris and Russell may have something to say about that.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:12 am 
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You know, I think that in the long run it might not even matter if Vettel raises his game, because if Leclerc continues to perform at this level, he will inevitably cement his status as the new golden boy and the future of Ferrari. After these two wins there's no way that Leclerc will settle into being a number two to Vettel anymore, and he doesn't need to either, because if Ferrari won't back him, he will surely raise the interest in Mercedes and Red Bull, both of which are likely to have a seat available 2021, and Red Bull even next year.

Vettel is in a tough situation because he might not be able to get out of this hole that he has dug himself into, even if he beat Leclerc at the end of this year, because he would need to do it very convincinly, which I'm not so sure that he can do anymore.

In a way this is a little bit like the Hamilton-Alonso situation Mclaren had in 2007, except that Leclerc is of course not a rookie, but the driver dynamics in Ferrari are starting to look very similar to that. At the end of the day if there are two drivers and the much younger one who is yet to reach his peak starts beating the older driver who might be at the tail-end of his prime, it is inevitable that the team will at some point put all the eggs in the basket of the younger driver. At least that's what I would do. Whether or not it happens already this year or next year, remains to be seen, but I think it's only a matter of time.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:38 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.

Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


Overall I would say so. When your Vettel or Hamilton every mistake is under a microscope. Drivers outside of the top cars get a lot more leeway. I would back Vettel to outscore anyone apart from the aforementioned 4 over a season. Right now at least. I think in the coming years Ocon, Norris and Russell may have something to say about that.

I'm not sure I'd put money on Vettel to beat Bottas on current form. I also have doubts about other drivers as well such as some of the youngsters you named. Not saying I think he would lose to them but I'm not sure about it. I think he'd have his hands full in qualifying with Bottas and in the races Vettel has been far less consistent than Valteri of late.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:41 am 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.

Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


Overall I would say so. When your Vettel or Hamilton every mistake is under a microscope. Drivers outside of the top cars get a lot more leeway. I would back Vettel to outscore anyone apart from the aforementioned 4 over a season. Right now at least. I think in the coming years Ocon, Norris and Russell may have something to say about that.

I'm not sure I'd put money on Vettel to beat Bottas on current form. I also have doubts about other drivers as well such as some of the youngsters you named. Not saying I think he would lose to them but I'm not sure about it. I think he'd have his hands full in qualifying with Bottas and in the races Vettel has been far less consistent than Valteri of late.


But Valteri does always go missing at least one stint a race. I think in the races Vettel didn't make errors Bottas would struggle to beat him. The only other real candidates at the moment are Perez who I think is too slow and Hulkneberg who I think is slower than Vettel and makes mistakes himself. The young guns could well come up and prove to be better in the end but I don't think they are right now.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:49 am 
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froze wrote:
You know, I think that in the long run it might not even matter if Vettel raises his game, because if Leclerc continues to perform at this level, he will inevitably cement his status as the new golden boy and the future of Ferrari. After these two wins there's no way that Leclerc will settle into being a number two to Vettel anymore, and he doesn't need to either, because if Ferrari won't back him, he will surely raise the interest in Mercedes and Red Bull, both of which are likely to have a seat available 2021, and Red Bull even next year.

Vettel is in a tough situation because he might not be able to get out of this hole that he has dug himself into, even if he beat Leclerc at the end of this year, because he would need to do it very convincinly, which I'm not so sure that he can do anymore.

In a way this is a little bit like the Hamilton-Alonso situation Mclaren had in 2007, except that Leclerc is of course not a rookie, but the driver dynamics in Ferrari are starting to look very similar to that. At the end of the day if there are two drivers and the much younger one who is yet to reach his peak starts beating the older driver who might be at the tail-end of his prime, it is inevitable that the team will at some point put all the eggs in the basket of the younger driver. At least that's what I would do. Whether or not it happens already this year or next year, remains to be seen, but I think it's only a matter of time.

Ferrari drivers have to endear themselves to tifosi to be seen as the Ferrari legends. That hasn't happened for Vettel, for whatever reason he's not captured the hearts in the way that previous drivers have done.

Schumacher only managed it because of how much he won for them, and it took him time. At the start he was regularly criticised by the Italian media and politicians - for example they accused him of disrepecting the Italian national anthem when he won.

Mansell and Alonso both won the hearts of the tifosi despite neither winning a championship. Obviously - winning at Monza plays a big part in that and there's no doubt that Leclerc bringing the Monza win home for the first time in a decade will have played a big part in elevating his status.

This is also on the back of a series of high profile errors by Vettel that started in Baku 2017, and the perception among a lot of Ferrari fans that he blew two championships that they feel Alonso would have delivered for him in the last two seasons. A lot of the tifosi felt it was Kimi who should have been retained at the end of the last season, despite Vettel clearly being the faster driver - Kimi is well loved, ultimately he delivered a championship.

You are right with the Hamilton/Alonso 2007 analogy as well. I felt on Saturday that Vettel and Leclerc had their Hungary '07 moment. Leclerc is now empowered, I think he now feels he has Vettel beaten (although I don't think it's quite that far yet) and he showed a lot of self confidence in stepping on the line when defending against Hamilton.

We are coming up to Singapore and Suzuka - historically two circuits Vettel is very strong on. If Leclerc beats him at those then I think it's unlikely Vettel will remain past his contract. There's no doubt that Ferrari has not been a comfortable place for him - but after Ferrari there is nowhere up to go, and Vettel is not the sort of person who will step down. The only option would be a return to Red Bull, and that will depend on how well Albon performs against Max. But Red Bull are all behind Max now anyway, Vettel is their past, and they need to win a championship with a different driver to make the statement it was Red Bull that granted Vettel the success not the other way around.

Ironically, if the 2021 regulations are introduced as intended then Vettel should improve. His weakness is driving a car with an unstable rear end - the Red Bull was effectively physically attached to the road at the rear thanks to Adrian Newey's aero and the blown diffuser whereas the Ferrari has one of the least stable rear ends due to its front wing philosophy. In Bahrain and Monza we've seen Vettel lose it in incidents that very much look like they were down to this weakness in the car. The ground effects should make the cars far more planted than they are now and will require a driver who believes in him.

Vettel was to the blown diffusers what Mansell was to the Active cars - a driver who trusted the technology and would lean it on. The ground effects will demand a simular belief and F1 will swing back to Vettel's strengths. But ironically, Ferrari may not want him anymore by then.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:13 am 
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What is the common factor shared between, Bottas, Vettel, Hamilton, Hulkenberg and Ricciardo? .......The answer is they are all over 30 years of age, the fact is that if they are not performing now they won't get any better after a further one or two years.
Leclerc WILL become the next Ferrari number 1 it is inevitable.

I'm not saying that all drivers over 30 are washed up, they often bring special qualities to the party, my point is though they have to be performing as well as have those qualities, they simply do not have the luxury of waiting for there form to return in a fresh team. Out of Ocon, Norris, Russell, Leclerc and Verstappen the oldest is Ocon at 22 years of age.
Time will tell, the writing is on the wall.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:24 am 
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In my understanding, Vettel likes cars with more downforce. All of his mishaps are a copycat of each other. He looses the end of the car. I'm baffled to why Ferrari did not take this in consideration, building the car with more downforce. His domination ended in 2014 when blown difuser, which added more downforce, were banned. Yes, that's his weakness. But give him the stable car in which he will have confidence, and he will be on top again.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:31 am 
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Lt. Drebin wrote:
In my understanding, Vettel likes cars with more downforce. All of his mishaps are a copycat of each other. He looses the end of the car. I'm baffled to why Ferrari did not take this in consideration, building the car with more downforce. His domination ended in 2014 when blown difuser, which added more downforce, were banned. Yes, that's his weakness. But give him the stable car in which he will have confidence, and he will be on top again.


Problem is where he is now his teammate likes a loose back end like Hamilton. So that's not about to change for the foreseeable future; and its pretty evident that Vettel can't seem to adapt either.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:55 am 
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That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:59 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:18 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?

Ferrari hit a wall with their front wing philosophy, and the only way for them to add performance to the car impacts the rear stability of the car - it wasn't designed with rear instability. Nico Rosberg explained it in one of his videos a while ago.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:26 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?

Ferrari hit a wall with their front wing philosophy, and the only way for them to add performance to the car impacts the rear stability of the car - it wasn't designed with rear instability. Nico Rosberg explained it in one of his videos a while ago.


Ah ok, that makes sense.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:46 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
froze wrote:
You know, I think that in the long run it might not even matter if Vettel raises his game, because if Leclerc continues to perform at this level, he will inevitably cement his status as the new golden boy and the future of Ferrari. After these two wins there's no way that Leclerc will settle into being a number two to Vettel anymore, and he doesn't need to either, because if Ferrari won't back him, he will surely raise the interest in Mercedes and Red Bull, both of which are likely to have a seat available 2021, and Red Bull even next year.

Vettel is in a tough situation because he might not be able to get out of this hole that he has dug himself into, even if he beat Leclerc at the end of this year, because he would need to do it very convincinly, which I'm not so sure that he can do anymore.

In a way this is a little bit like the Hamilton-Alonso situation Mclaren had in 2007, except that Leclerc is of course not a rookie, but the driver dynamics in Ferrari are starting to look very similar to that. At the end of the day if there are two drivers and the much younger one who is yet to reach his peak starts beating the older driver who might be at the tail-end of his prime, it is inevitable that the team will at some point put all the eggs in the basket of the younger driver. At least that's what I would do. Whether or not it happens already this year or next year, remains to be seen, but I think it's only a matter of time.

Ferrari drivers have to endear themselves to tifosi to be seen as the Ferrari legends. That hasn't happened for Vettel, for whatever reason he's not captured the hearts in the way that previous drivers have done.

Schumacher only managed it because of how much he won for them, and it took him time. At the start he was regularly criticised by the Italian media and politicians - for example they accused him of disrepecting the Italian national anthem when he won.

Mansell and Alonso both won the hearts of the tifosi despite neither winning a championship. Obviously - winning at Monza plays a big part in that and there's no doubt that Leclerc bringing the Monza win home for the first time in a decade will have played a big part in elevating his status.

This is also on the back of a series of high profile errors by Vettel that started in Baku 2017, and the perception among a lot of Ferrari fans that he blew two championships that they feel Alonso would have delivered for him in the last two seasons. A lot of the tifosi felt it was Kimi who should have been retained at the end of the last season, despite Vettel clearly being the faster driver - Kimi is well loved, ultimately he delivered a championship.

You are right with the Hamilton/Alonso 2007 analogy as well. I felt on Saturday that Vettel and Leclerc had their Hungary '07 moment. Leclerc is now empowered, I think he now feels he has Vettel beaten (although I don't think it's quite that far yet) and he showed a lot of self confidence in stepping on the line when defending against Hamilton.

We are coming up to Singapore and Suzuka - historically two circuits Vettel is very strong on. If Leclerc beats him at those then I think it's unlikely Vettel will remain past his contract. There's no doubt that Ferrari has not been a comfortable place for him - but after Ferrari there is nowhere up to go, and Vettel is not the sort of person who will step down. The only option would be a return to Red Bull, and that will depend on how well Albon performs against Max. But Red Bull are all behind Max now anyway, Vettel is their past, and they need to win a championship with a different driver to make the statement it was Red Bull that granted Vettel the success not the other way around.

Ironically, if the 2021 regulations are introduced as intended then Vettel should improve. His weakness is driving a car with an unstable rear end - the Red Bull was effectively physically attached to the road at the rear thanks to Adrian Newey's aero and the blown diffuser whereas the Ferrari has one of the least stable rear ends due to its front wing philosophy. In Bahrain and Monza we've seen Vettel lose it in incidents that very much look like they were down to this weakness in the car. The ground effects should make the cars far more planted than they are now and will require a driver who believes in him.

Vettel was to the blown diffusers what Mansell was to the Active cars - a driver who trusted the technology and would lean it on. The ground effects will demand a simular belief and F1 will swing back to Vettel's strengths. But ironically, Ferrari may not want him anymore by then.

Yeah I also agree with pretty much everything. I was just thinking about it more in the team's perspecive. :thumbup:
Also an interesting statistic: After Monaco, Leclerc has beaten Vettel 20-1 in all qualifying sessions. So that includes all Q1, Q2, Q3 sessions since then except for Germany, where Vettel was unable to participate due to mechanical issue in Q1. 8O

Edit: Oops, I see that I missed Canada, where Vettel was dominating. My bad. x( So it is actually 16-4 to Leclerc. But still...

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Last edited by froze on Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:45 pm 
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froze wrote:
After Monaco, Leclerc has beaten Vettel 20-1 in all qualifying sessions. So that includes all Q1, Q2, Q3 sessions since then except for Germany, where Vettel was unable to participate due to mechanical issue in Q1. 8O

8O 8O 8O

That is a shocking statistic, regardless whether you take Q1 and Q2 as meaningful or not.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:56 pm 
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MistaVega23 wrote:
froze wrote:
After Monaco, Leclerc has beaten Vettel 20-1 in all qualifying sessions. So that includes all Q1, Q2, Q3 sessions since then except for Germany, where Vettel was unable to participate due to mechanical issue in Q1. 8O

8O 8O 8O

That is a shocking statistic, regardless whether you take Q1 and Q2 as meaningful or not.

Oops, I see that I missed Canada, where Vettel was dominating. My bad. x(
So it is actually 16-4 to Leclerc. But still...

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:58 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?

Ferrari hit a wall with their front wing philosophy, and the only way for them to add performance to the car impacts the rear stability of the car - it wasn't designed with rear instability. Nico Rosberg explained it in one of his videos a while ago.


So does that mean, Ferrari goofed the design then? Wouldn't they realise from the wind tunnel stuff they were going down a road that wasn't Vettel's favoured choice. That's what I don't get, perhaps its in the NR video.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:17 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?

Ferrari hit a wall with their front wing philosophy, and the only way for them to add performance to the car impacts the rear stability of the car - it wasn't designed with rear instability. Nico Rosberg explained it in one of his videos a while ago.


So does that mean, Ferrari goofed the design then? Wouldn't they realise from the wind tunnel stuff they were going down a road that wasn't Vettel's favoured choice. That's what I don't get, perhaps its in the NR video.

At the start of the season Ferrari thought they were on to a winner with their front wing philsophy. However it painted them in a corner and the only way to keep pace with Mercedes and Red Bull was to sacrifice rear end stability. So I guess they goofed the design.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:22 pm 
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Lt. Drebin wrote:
In my understanding, Vettel likes cars with more downforce. All of his mishaps are a copycat of each other. He looses the end of the car. I'm baffled to why Ferrari did not take this in consideration, building the car with more downforce. His domination ended in 2014 when blown difuser, which added more downforce, were banned. Yes, that's his weakness. But give him the stable car in which he will have confidence, and he will be on top again.

I keep hearing this excuse made for Vettel and I just have to chime in at this point. The fact is that these cars have MUCH more downforce than the cars he was driving in 2013. They also have far more mechanical grip with the wider tires.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:32 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.

Right now? No way.

Absolutely one of the five best. Beyond that, probably not.


The sheer amount of mistakes he makes, how the hell is he one of the 5 best?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:44 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
That's clearly true so why has it not happened? Its either that Ferrari can't build a car that has rear downforce and is competitive or they don't want to. The design of the SF90 has been deliberately set up to give them less downforce and more speed with the reverse for Mercedes. (Fully explained in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47527705 which no doubt you are aware of.

You have to wonder why they did this, Vettel was the lead driver last year, Kimi was on the way out, with the inexperienced Leclerc set to join. You would think that Vettel's input would have been that he wanted a car with as much rear downforce as possible or at least loaded toward the rear. its hard to believe that they couldn't build a car like that, so why did they just ignore SV's input?

I wonder what they will do design wise next year, Leclerc doesn't seem to have the same issues with the loose back end so will they design a car to Vettel's spec with a year left on his contract? They might, but with the new spec coming but I wonder if they will.


Or perhaps it isn't true, or at least Ferrari don't think it is?

Is there another logical explanation?

Ferrari hit a wall with their front wing philosophy, and the only way for them to add performance to the car impacts the rear stability of the car - it wasn't designed with rear instability. Nico Rosberg explained it in one of his videos a while ago.

Interesting, did Ferrari bring a big update to France? Because the drop off after Canada relative to Leclerc was really noticable.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:48 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
Exediron wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.

Right now? No way.

Absolutely one of the five best. Beyond that, probably not.


The sheer amount of mistakes he makes, how the hell is he one of the 5 best?


His speed is still very good and while he makes far too many mistakes for a tier 1 driver he doesn't all that many more errors than a typical midfield driver. He's just under a microscope at Ferrari. Over a season i'd back him to outscore anyone outside Verstappen, Ricciardo, Hamilton or Leclerc.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:05 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
Exediron wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TBF still one of the best drivers in F1.

Right now? No way.

Absolutely one of the five best. Beyond that, probably not.


The sheer amount of mistakes he makes, how the hell is he one of the 5 best?


His speed is still very good and while he makes far too many mistakes for a tier 1 driver he doesn't all that many more errors than a typical midfield driver. He's just under a microscope at Ferrari. Over a season i'd back him to outscore anyone outside Verstappen, Ricciardo, Hamilton or Leclerc.


Speed without finishing a race is useless. And he doesn't make more mistakes than a typical midfield driver?

Show me how many midfield drivers have made as many mistakes in 2018/19.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:10 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

He's still better than anyone except for Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo and Leclerc.

Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


Overall I would say so. When your Vettel or Hamilton every mistake is under a microscope. Drivers outside of the top cars get a lot more leeway. I would back Vettel to outscore anyone apart from the aforementioned 4 over a season. Right now at least. I think in the coming years Ocon, Norris and Russell may have something to say about that.

I'm not sure I'd put money on Vettel to beat Bottas on current form. I also have doubts about other drivers as well such as some of the youngsters you named. Not saying I think he would lose to them but I'm not sure about it. I think he'd have his hands full in qualifying with Bottas and in the races Vettel has been far less consistent than Valteri of late.


But Valteri does always go missing at least one stint a race. I think in the races Vettel didn't make errors Bottas would struggle to beat him. The only other real candidates at the moment are Perez who I think is too slow and Hulkneberg who I think is slower than Vettel and makes mistakes himself. The young guns could well come up and prove to be better in the end but I don't think they are right now.

Relative to Hamilton sure but not Vettel. I think Lewis is just unusually strong on the harder compounds. Considering how close Valteri has been to Lewis in qualifying this year, I think he might even best Sebastian on Saturdays; which would give him a massive leg up on Sundays. Valteri makes far fewer mistakes than Vettel too and in the same car that would make a huge difference. I've not seen Vettel able to make overtaking moves on a teammate. A couple of years ago, I would have given Vettel the benefit of the doubt but not now. Not after the last year and a half of constant blunders and not with Bottas's current solid form. I think the 4 WDC trophies on the shelf are the things that have you convinced.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:52 pm 
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ReservoirDog wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
Exediron wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
Right now? No way.

Absolutely one of the five best. Beyond that, probably not.


The sheer amount of mistakes he makes, how the hell is he one of the 5 best?


His speed is still very good and while he makes far too many mistakes for a tier 1 driver he doesn't all that many more errors than a typical midfield driver. He's just under a microscope at Ferrari. Over a season i'd back him to outscore anyone outside Verstappen, Ricciardo, Hamilton or Leclerc.


Speed without finishing a race is useless. And he doesn't make more mistakes than a typical midfield driver?

Show me how many midfield drivers have made as many mistakes in 2018/19.


Vettel does usually finish the race. He's scored points in all but 3 of the last 35 races.

Vettel has made lots of mistakes for a top driver but a lot of those are errors we would not remember from a midfield driver. Stuff like Canada for example. Or even minor spins in the race. In a years time how many people will remember Grosjean spun at Monza?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:53 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
They also have far more mechanical grip with the wider tires.


Careful with that one the grip comes from the compound not the width, its just a wider tyre means you can run a softer compound and it doesn't wear out so fast. Not at all sure how you compare tyre compounds.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:54 pm 
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sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Is he? Speed-wise, sure probably but overall?


Overall I would say so. When your Vettel or Hamilton every mistake is under a microscope. Drivers outside of the top cars get a lot more leeway. I would back Vettel to outscore anyone apart from the aforementioned 4 over a season. Right now at least. I think in the coming years Ocon, Norris and Russell may have something to say about that.

I'm not sure I'd put money on Vettel to beat Bottas on current form. I also have doubts about other drivers as well such as some of the youngsters you named. Not saying I think he would lose to them but I'm not sure about it. I think he'd have his hands full in qualifying with Bottas and in the races Vettel has been far less consistent than Valteri of late.


But Valteri does always go missing at least one stint a race. I think in the races Vettel didn't make errors Bottas would struggle to beat him. The only other real candidates at the moment are Perez who I think is too slow and Hulkneberg who I think is slower than Vettel and makes mistakes himself. The young guns could well come up and prove to be better in the end but I don't think they are right now.

Relative to Hamilton sure but not Vettel. I think Lewis is just unusually strong on the harder compounds. Considering how close Valteri has been to Lewis in qualifying this year, I think he might even best Sebastian on Saturdays; which would give him a massive leg up on Sundays. Valteri makes far fewer mistakes than Vettel too and in the same car that would make a huge difference. I've not seen Vettel able to make overtaking moves on a teammate. A couple of years ago, I would have given Vettel the benefit of the doubt but not now. Not after the last year and a half of constant blunders and not with Bottas's current solid form. I think the 4 WDC trophies on the shelf are the things that have you convinced.


Bottas is debatable. I'd rather see him keep his level up to the end of the season to make that call though.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:18 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
They also have far more mechanical grip with the wider tires.


Careful with that one the grip comes from the compound not the width, its just a wider tyre means you can run a softer compound and it doesn't wear out so fast. Not at all sure how you compare tyre compounds.

The larger contact patch means more grip; regardless of what compound you are on.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:11 pm 
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Its a complicated argument, but friction is not related to surface area. I agree that when it comes to cornering there is more grip as in this case the slip angle comes into play but it is not a big difference. Differing compound of tyres will have differing coefficients of friction.
Contact path area is more dependent on tyre pressure and the deformation of the sidewalls. Its not straightforward thats why I said "be careful with that". The main reason that wider tyres are used is simply because they last longer.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:27 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
Its a complicated argument, but friction is not related to surface area. I agree that when it comes to cornering there is more grip as in this case the slip angle comes into play but it is not a big difference. Differing compound of tyres will have differing coefficients of friction.
Contact path area is more dependent on tyre pressure and the deformation of the sidewalls. Its not straightforward thats why I said "be careful with that". The main reason that wider tyres are used is simply because they last longer.

:thumbup:

A cylinder rolling on a flat surface mathematically has an infinitesimally small contact area regardless of its width. To generate a contact patch, you have to deform the cylinder.


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