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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:23 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
After three races, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver outside the top five to have scored points in every race.

I must point out, when Vettel beat Raikkonen at Ferrari (sometimes by huge margins), the excuse was always that Kimi is a fraud or past it. Now that Kimi is in the midfield, he looks just as good or better than every other midfield driver.

A perfect example to illustrate my point is Spa 2017. Vettel was so much faster than Raikkonen that race, by almost a second per lap. Vettel was keeping up with Hamilton while Kimi couldn’t at all keep up with Bottas. The argument was that Ferrari was actually the best car (which no one predicted before the weekend), and that Kimi is just a bad driver.

Well I think that Vettel got every ounce of performance out of the 2017 Ferrari in terms of pure speed, and no one is going to convince me otherwise.


Yeah Vettel is not a bum. This idea that Leclerc is just going to mop the floor with him in their first year as teammates never held any water.


I think it does hold water, and I think this season will spell the end of Vettel's time at Ferrari, perhaps his F1 career. 3 races in, a team order in each race to his benefit, his team mate with the only reliability issue so far, and he sits just a point ahead in the standings. But the big problem for Vettel is that Charles has been anointed saviour by the Tifosi (and he is also very very good). As a result of the errors over the past 3 years Vettel's reputation is not in good shape with the Italian press, and this will be what does for him in the end. Every flash of brilliance from Leclerc, and every team order against makes him sparkle that little bit more. Eventually it reaches a tipping point and the team bows to fan pressure.

We've seen this movie before down the years with Senna and Prost and most notably when Hamilton joined Alonso at McLaren in 2007. The established, and obviously still quick and talented multiple world champion gets usurped by the fast, fresh faced and loveable rookie. Prost and Alonso were moved on, and so will Vettel.

I don't think Prost was "moved on:" he was the one who decided to leave McLaren for Ferrari. And Alonso was quite a special case, really, with things so acrimonious between him and the team after Hungary and Spygate that there was little choice. I don't see any parallels with the current Ferrari situation.

Leclerc may well turn out to be faster than Vettel. If he is, then he might be one of the quickest ever, which is quite something to look forward to. But given that Ricciardo's career didn't end when he was beaten by Max, and Kimi's didn't when he was beaten by first Alonso and then Vettel, I don't see how Vettel, with a more impressive pedigree than either of those two, would see an end to his career if Leclerc managed to beat him. There may be an element of wishful thinking here...


I think the best parrallel is Raikkonen in 2007. Ferrari expected to sign a driver to replace Schumacher and be near his level, i.e. consistently 0.3-0.4 up on there number 2 driver Massa. But they got a driver who was essentially very similar to Massa pace wise.

The problem was, Raikkonen was on 8x Massa's salary. So what did Ferrari do, begin to try to move Raikkonen out of the car as early as pre season 2008.

I see a similar problem for Ferrari now, they are likely paying Vettel 10x what they are paying Leclerc. Yes, if Leclerc keeps this up he will earn a new deal but that will likely still be less than half of what Vettel is on now. Leclerc is also only 21 and only going to get better and overall is probably more marketable than Vettel too in the coming years.

If Vettel is moved out of Ferrari and definitely slower than Leclerc, who would take him? Who could afford him? Vettel looks really strained, I could easily see this being his last contract.


Are you sure? At that point Kimi had just won a WDC with them and riding the success wave. True, he didn't dominate his team mate, but I do not remember them trying to get rid of him in pre-season 2008


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:28 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
I never get this about critics of Vettel, I wonder whether folks even think of the absurdity behind their line of reasoning.

Folks who don't rate Vettel, but then go on to praise whoever beats him. What kind of mental gymnastics do you have to do to arrive at such position?

In '15 vettel beat Kimi by the same if not more margin that Alonso beat same driver by, but somehow


I actually think the reasoning here is quite sound. It's not so much about his driving ability as it is a conversation about his mental state and a common sense analysis of the financials of his contract, and available drives.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:44 pm 
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gregs51 wrote:
Rockie wrote:
I never get this about critics of Vettel, I wonder whether folks even think of the absurdity behind their line of reasoning.

Folks who don't rate Vettel, but then go on to praise whoever beats him. What kind of mental gymnastics do you have to do to arrive at such position?

In '15 vettel beat Kimi by the same if not more margin that Alonso beat same driver by, but somehow


I actually think the reasoning here is quite sound. It's not so much about his driving ability as it is a conversation about his mental state and a common sense analysis of the financials of his contract, and available drives.


Nobody in the mental health profession will analyse someone they have no inside knowledge of outside of seeing them at race weekends on TV, what common sense analysis, do you have vettel's performance data or the value he brings to the team, or you know how the team works?
From behind your screen and keyboard you are guessing and not saying its your opinion but tag it as common sense which is a bit disingenuous as that means anyone who does not agree with it lacks common sense!


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:48 pm 
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gregs51 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
After three races, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver outside the top five to have scored points in every race.

I must point out, when Vettel beat Raikkonen at Ferrari (sometimes by huge margins), the excuse was always that Kimi is a fraud or past it. Now that Kimi is in the midfield, he looks just as good or better than every other midfield driver.

A perfect example to illustrate my point is Spa 2017. Vettel was so much faster than Raikkonen that race, by almost a second per lap. Vettel was keeping up with Hamilton while Kimi couldn’t at all keep up with Bottas. The argument was that Ferrari was actually the best car (which no one predicted before the weekend), and that Kimi is just a bad driver.

Well I think that Vettel got every ounce of performance out of the 2017 Ferrari in terms of pure speed, and no one is going to convince me otherwise.


Yeah Vettel is not a bum. This idea that Leclerc is just going to mop the floor with him in their first year as teammates never held any water.


I think it does hold water, and I think this season will spell the end of Vettel's time at Ferrari, perhaps his F1 career. 3 races in, a team order in each race to his benefit, his team mate with the only reliability issue so far, and he sits just a point ahead in the standings. But the big problem for Vettel is that Charles has been anointed saviour by the Tifosi (and he is also very very good). As a result of the errors over the past 3 years Vettel's reputation is not in good shape with the Italian press, and this will be what does for him in the end. Every flash of brilliance from Leclerc, and every team order against makes him sparkle that little bit more. Eventually it reaches a tipping point and the team bows to fan pressure.

We've seen this movie before down the years with Senna and Prost and most notably when Hamilton joined Alonso at McLaren in 2007. The established, and obviously still quick and talented multiple world champion gets usurped by the fast, fresh faced and loveable rookie. Prost and Alonso were moved on, and so will Vettel.

I don't think Prost was "moved on:" he was the one who decided to leave McLaren for Ferrari. And Alonso was quite a special case, really, with things so acrimonious between him and the team after Hungary and Spygate that there was little choice. I don't see any parallels with the current Ferrari situation.

Leclerc may well turn out to be faster than Vettel. If he is, then he might be one of the quickest ever, which is quite something to look forward to. But given that Ricciardo's career didn't end when he was beaten by Max, and Kimi's didn't when he was beaten by first Alonso and then Vettel, I don't see how Vettel, with a more impressive pedigree than either of those two, would see an end to his career if Leclerc managed to beat him. There may be an element of wishful thinking here...


I do think the parallels will gradually emerge as time goes on. We're only 3 races in and it's already looking like things are getting tense behind the scenes.

Regarding your second point, it's precisely because of Vettel's impressive pedigree that his ego will take it that much harder, and I can't see that he'd want to stay for another year if soundly beaten. 1 year might be considered a blip, but two years straight getting beaten you start to look bad and so does the legacy. Not worth the risk.

I'm also pondering the team orders as well; If Leclerc continues to perform how many team orders do we need to see before it actually becomes embarrassing for Vettel? I'm going to revise my prediction - I genuinely don't think Vettel will last the season.



That's an incredibly bold prediction 8O


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:05 pm 
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gregs51 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
After three races, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver outside the top five to have scored points in every race.

I must point out, when Vettel beat Raikkonen at Ferrari (sometimes by huge margins), the excuse was always that Kimi is a fraud or past it. Now that Kimi is in the midfield, he looks just as good or better than every other midfield driver.

A perfect example to illustrate my point is Spa 2017. Vettel was so much faster than Raikkonen that race, by almost a second per lap. Vettel was keeping up with Hamilton while Kimi couldn’t at all keep up with Bottas. The argument was that Ferrari was actually the best car (which no one predicted before the weekend), and that Kimi is just a bad driver.

Well I think that Vettel got every ounce of performance out of the 2017 Ferrari in terms of pure speed, and no one is going to convince me otherwise.


Yeah Vettel is not a bum. This idea that Leclerc is just going to mop the floor with him in their first year as teammates never held any water.


I think it does hold water, and I think this season will spell the end of Vettel's time at Ferrari, perhaps his F1 career. 3 races in, a team order in each race to his benefit, his team mate with the only reliability issue so far, and he sits just a point ahead in the standings. But the big problem for Vettel is that Charles has been anointed saviour by the Tifosi (and he is also very very good). As a result of the errors over the past 3 years Vettel's reputation is not in good shape with the Italian press, and this will be what does for him in the end. Every flash of brilliance from Leclerc, and every team order against makes him sparkle that little bit more. Eventually it reaches a tipping point and the team bows to fan pressure.

We've seen this movie before down the years with Senna and Prost and most notably when Hamilton joined Alonso at McLaren in 2007. The established, and obviously still quick and talented multiple world champion gets usurped by the fast, fresh faced and loveable rookie. Prost and Alonso were moved on, and so will Vettel.

I don't think Prost was "moved on:" he was the one who decided to leave McLaren for Ferrari. And Alonso was quite a special case, really, with things so acrimonious between him and the team after Hungary and Spygate that there was little choice. I don't see any parallels with the current Ferrari situation.

Leclerc may well turn out to be faster than Vettel. If he is, then he might be one of the quickest ever, which is quite something to look forward to. But given that Ricciardo's career didn't end when he was beaten by Max, and Kimi's didn't when he was beaten by first Alonso and then Vettel, I don't see how Vettel, with a more impressive pedigree than either of those two, would see an end to his career if Leclerc managed to beat him. There may be an element of wishful thinking here...


I do think the parallels will gradually emerge as time goes on. We're only 3 races in and it's already looking like things are getting tense behind the scenes.

Regarding your second point, it's precisely because of Vettel's impressive pedigree that his ego will take it that much harder, and I can't see that he'd want to stay for another year if soundly beaten. 1 year might be considered a blip, but two years straight getting beaten you start to look bad and so does the legacy. Not worth the risk.

I'm also pondering the team orders as well; If Leclerc continues to perform how many team orders do we need to see before it actually becomes embarrassing for Vettel? I'm going to revise my prediction - I genuinely don't think Vettel will last the season.

So far Vettel has been slightly better in 2 weekends and Leclerc has been dominant in 1 weekend. I think we probably need some more time before seeing how those two will shape up against each other. Even if Leclerc started comprehensively beating Vettel going forward we saw exactly the same with Ricciardo in 2014 and Vettel took it fine, keeping a good relationship with Ricciardo and the team throughout. I see no reason to assume it would be any different if it happened again.

It's possible Vettel will start looking for another team if Leclerc takes the upper hand but he will almost certainly see out his contract with Ferrari and he's not going to struggle to find a spot elsewhere if he wasn't with Ferrari next year anyway so I highly doubt he wont be in F1. I guess he could decide to retire rather than drive for another team but I haven't seen anything to suggest he would.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:33 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
After three races, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver outside the top five to have scored points in every race.

I must point out, when Vettel beat Raikkonen at Ferrari (sometimes by huge margins), the excuse was always that Kimi is a fraud or past it. Now that Kimi is in the midfield, he looks just as good or better than every other midfield driver.

A perfect example to illustrate my point is Spa 2017. Vettel was so much faster than Raikkonen that race, by almost a second per lap. Vettel was keeping up with Hamilton while Kimi couldn’t at all keep up with Bottas. The argument was that Ferrari was actually the best car (which no one predicted before the weekend), and that Kimi is just a bad driver.

Well I think that Vettel got every ounce of performance out of the 2017 Ferrari in terms of pure speed, and no one is going to convince me otherwise.


Yeah Vettel is not a bum. This idea that Leclerc is just going to mop the floor with him in their first year as teammates never held any water.


I think it does hold water, and I think this season will spell the end of Vettel's time at Ferrari, perhaps his F1 career. 3 races in, a team order in each race to his benefit, his team mate with the only reliability issue so far, and he sits just a point ahead in the standings. But the big problem for Vettel is that Charles has been anointed saviour by the Tifosi (and he is also very very good). As a result of the errors over the past 3 years Vettel's reputation is not in good shape with the Italian press, and this will be what does for him in the end. Every flash of brilliance from Leclerc, and every team order against makes him sparkle that little bit more. Eventually it reaches a tipping point and the team bows to fan pressure.

We've seen this movie before down the years with Senna and Prost and most notably when Hamilton joined Alonso at McLaren in 2007. The established, and obviously still quick and talented multiple world champion gets usurped by the fast, fresh faced and loveable rookie. Prost and Alonso were moved on, and so will Vettel.

I don't think Prost was "moved on:" he was the one who decided to leave McLaren for Ferrari. And Alonso was quite a special case, really, with things so acrimonious between him and the team after Hungary and Spygate that there was little choice. I don't see any parallels with the current Ferrari situation.

Leclerc may well turn out to be faster than Vettel. If he is, then he might be one of the quickest ever, which is quite something to look forward to. But given that Ricciardo's career didn't end when he was beaten by Max, and Kimi's didn't when he was beaten by first Alonso and then Vettel, I don't see how Vettel, with a more impressive pedigree than either of those two, would see an end to his career if Leclerc managed to beat him. There may be an element of wishful thinking here...


I think the best parrallel is Raikkonen in 2007. Ferrari expected to sign a driver to replace Schumacher and be near his level, i.e. consistently 0.3-0.4 up on there number 2 driver Massa. But they got a driver who was essentially very similar to Massa pace wise.

The problem was, Raikkonen was on 8x Massa's salary. So what did Ferrari do, begin to try to move Raikkonen out of the car as early as pre season 2008.

I see a similar problem for Ferrari now, they are likely paying Vettel 10x what they are paying Leclerc. Yes, if Leclerc keeps this up he will earn a new deal but that will likely still be less than half of what Vettel is on now. Leclerc is also only 21 and only going to get better and overall is probably more marketable than Vettel too in the coming years.

If Vettel is moved out of Ferrari and definitely slower than Leclerc, who would take him? Who could afford him? Vettel looks really strained, I could easily see this being his last contract.

I think 2007 is more apt, yes, although even with that I think Vettel has already proven himself to be well above average at Ferrari, so I don't think it's entirely the same. If he gets beaten by Leclerc then Ferrari will have two very strong drivers and would only be good for their WCC chances


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:51 pm 
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Rockie wrote:
I never get this about critics of Vettel, I wonder whether folks even think of the absurdity behind their line of reasoning.

Folks who don't rate Vettel, but then go on to praise whoever beats him. What kind of mental gymnastics do you have to do to arrive at such position?

In '15 vettel beat Kimi by the same if not more margin that Alonso beat same driver by, but somehow

Alonso beat Kimi by a bigger margin, it's not that people don't rate Vettel, it's the over rating that people might question?

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:57 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
Zoue wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
kleefton wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
After three races, Kimi Raikkonen is the only driver outside the top five to have scored points in every race.

I must point out, when Vettel beat Raikkonen at Ferrari (sometimes by huge margins), the excuse was always that Kimi is a fraud or past it. Now that Kimi is in the midfield, he looks just as good or better than every other midfield driver.

A perfect example to illustrate my point is Spa 2017. Vettel was so much faster than Raikkonen that race, by almost a second per lap. Vettel was keeping up with Hamilton while Kimi couldn’t at all keep up with Bottas. The argument was that Ferrari was actually the best car (which no one predicted before the weekend), and that Kimi is just a bad driver.

Well I think that Vettel got every ounce of performance out of the 2017 Ferrari in terms of pure speed, and no one is going to convince me otherwise.


Yeah Vettel is not a bum. This idea that Leclerc is just going to mop the floor with him in their first year as teammates never held any water.


I think it does hold water, and I think this season will spell the end of Vettel's time at Ferrari, perhaps his F1 career. 3 races in, a team order in each race to his benefit, his team mate with the only reliability issue so far, and he sits just a point ahead in the standings. But the big problem for Vettel is that Charles has been anointed saviour by the Tifosi (and he is also very very good). As a result of the errors over the past 3 years Vettel's reputation is not in good shape with the Italian press, and this will be what does for him in the end. Every flash of brilliance from Leclerc, and every team order against makes him sparkle that little bit more. Eventually it reaches a tipping point and the team bows to fan pressure.

We've seen this movie before down the years with Senna and Prost and most notably when Hamilton joined Alonso at McLaren in 2007. The established, and obviously still quick and talented multiple world champion gets usurped by the fast, fresh faced and loveable rookie. Prost and Alonso were moved on, and so will Vettel.

I don't think Prost was "moved on:" he was the one who decided to leave McLaren for Ferrari. And Alonso was quite a special case, really, with things so acrimonious between him and the team after Hungary and Spygate that there was little choice. I don't see any parallels with the current Ferrari situation.

Leclerc may well turn out to be faster than Vettel. If he is, then he might be one of the quickest ever, which is quite something to look forward to. But given that Ricciardo's career didn't end when he was beaten by Max, and Kimi's didn't when he was beaten by first Alonso and then Vettel, I don't see how Vettel, with a more impressive pedigree than either of those two, would see an end to his career if Leclerc managed to beat him. There may be an element of wishful thinking here...


I think the best parrallel is Raikkonen in 2007. Ferrari expected to sign a driver to replace Schumacher and be near his level, i.e. consistently 0.3-0.4 up on there number 2 driver Massa. But they got a driver who was essentially very similar to Massa pace wise.

The problem was, Raikkonen was on 8x Massa's salary. So what did Ferrari do, begin to try to move Raikkonen out of the car as early as pre season 2008.

I see a similar problem for Ferrari now, they are likely paying Vettel 10x what they are paying Leclerc. Yes, if Leclerc keeps this up he will earn a new deal but that will likely still be less than half of what Vettel is on now. Leclerc is also only 21 and only going to get better and overall is probably more marketable than Vettel too in the coming years.

If Vettel is moved out of Ferrari and definitely slower than Leclerc, who would take him? Who could afford him? Vettel looks really strained, I could easily see this being his last contract.

I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:48 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:54 pm 
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F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).


Wasn't it more to do with the strategy differences which meant Vettel's tires were done and Leclerc had an advantage due to that?


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:25 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).


Wasn't it more to do with the strategy differences which meant Vettel's tires were done and Leclerc had an advantage due to that?


Not really because by stopping slightly early to try to gain a place from Hamilton, they were doing what they could to maximise Vettel's result; (it's not like they used him to stay out too long to be a blocker for another car like they did with Leclerc in China, or Merc have done with VB in the past). It was then SV's job to nurse the tyres better to the end, because if he doesn't do that, then all the time he loses at the end the stint is down to poor decision making and the result of being too greedy with tyre life earlier in the stint. Leclerc would have lost a lot of time to Vettel just after Vettel's stop while Leclerc ran longer, so they both only stopped once at the end of the day and Leclerc made up all that extra time loss and more by the end.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:35 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).

You have to also factor in the poor strategy that Vettel had trying to undercut Hamilton for second place, Hamilton having to counter this also exaggerated the final gap to Bottas who like Leclerc were on better strategies.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:54 am 
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pokerman wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).

You have to also factor in the poor strategy that Vettel had trying to undercut Hamilton for second place, Hamilton having to counter this also exaggerated the final gap to Bottas who like Leclerc were on better strategies.


It's only a slightly poorer strategy though, and could have been utilised better to leave a larger gap to Leclerc. For example Vettel was able to unfairly pull out more of a gap in the first stint by pushing his tyres harder with the knowledge of an early stop was likely. Then in the immediate laps after his stop he would have been much quicker than Leclerc on old tyres who was running longer, pulling out an unfair amount of time on him during this period too. Then Leclerc has better tyres for the rest of the race after his stop to try and gain the lost ground, but if Vettel was genuinely quicker then Leclerc wouldn't have been able to pull all of it back like that.

Essentially Vettel had the better tyre conditions for most of the first half of the race, and if he was quicker than Charles in general pace, then he should be too far ahead for Leclerc to regain all of that time in the latter 60% of the race where Leclerc still also has to manage his tyres. The fact that Charles was able to regain all of that lost time and then be glued to the back of SV for the last few laps, implies to me that SV wasn't much quicker if at all than CL in the race.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:19 am 
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Vettel was quicker than Leclerc on every lap from 1 to 16 in Australia, the only time when they were on equal tyres.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:23 am 
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Vettel was much better than Leclerc on the Softs in Australia, whereas Leclerc was much better on the Mediums. I think strategy did play a big part because if Vettel had only gone a few more laps on the Softs he would have built up enough of a buffer that Leclerc wouldn't have been able to overcome the deficit. Ultimately Vettel was probably fortunate that Leclerc was given a holding order, but OTOH it's very difficult to overtake in Australia so there's no guarantee that Leclerc would have been able to get past if he'd have tried. I'm inclined to give Australia as a draw on the speed front between the two, given that the tyres made such a huge difference as to who was quicker.

In Bahrain there's no question that Leclerc was significantly quicker, whereas in China I think Vettel was slightly quicker. So on speed so far this year I'd have Leclerc ahead, with the caveat that so far it looks circuit and/or tyre dependent. In other words, the pairing looks pretty close which I think makes Leclerc look pretty impressive from where I'm sitting.

I do think Vettel's not comfortable in the car and we've not yet seen the best of him. But that doesn't mean I could comfortably say he's quicker than Leclerc and I think the battle between the two will be fascinating to watch this year


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:20 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Vettel was much better than Leclerc on the Softs in Australia, whereas Leclerc was much better on the Mediums. I think strategy did play a big part because if Vettel had only gone a few more laps on the Softs he would have built up enough of a buffer that Leclerc wouldn't have been able to overcome the deficit. Ultimately Vettel was probably fortunate that Leclerc was given a holding order, but OTOH it's very difficult to overtake in Australia so there's no guarantee that Leclerc would have been able to get past if he'd have tried. I'm inclined to give Australia as a draw on the speed front between the two, given that the tyres made such a huge difference as to who was quicker.

In Bahrain there's no question that Leclerc was significantly quicker, whereas in China I think Vettel was slightly quicker. So on speed so far this year I'd have Leclerc ahead, with the caveat that so far it looks circuit and/or tyre dependent. In other words, the pairing looks pretty close which I think makes Leclerc look pretty impressive from where I'm sitting.

I do think Vettel's not comfortable in the car and we've not yet seen the best of him. But that doesn't mean I could comfortably say he's quicker than Leclerc and I think the battle between the two will be fascinating to watch this year


Yes, I get the same feeling.

It seems that Leclerc is looking for answers now from Ferrari for the team orders according to some articles. I guess they did say that they will support Vettel in the first few races, so now Leclerc is right to question his own status. I hope he's not biting more than he can chew, I still want to see him perform in the wet before I make my mind between these two.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:09 am 
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Zoue wrote:
Vettel was much better than Leclerc on the Softs in Australia, whereas Leclerc was much better on the Mediums. I think strategy did play a big part because if Vettel had only gone a few more laps on the Softs he would have built up enough of a buffer that Leclerc wouldn't have been able to overcome the deficit. Ultimately Vettel was probably fortunate that Leclerc was given a holding order, but OTOH it's very difficult to overtake in Australia so there's no guarantee that Leclerc would have been able to get past if he'd have tried. I'm inclined to give Australia as a draw on the speed front between the two, given that the tyres made such a huge difference as to who was quicker.

In Bahrain there's no question that Leclerc was significantly quicker, whereas in China I think Vettel was slightly quicker. So on speed so far this year I'd have Leclerc ahead, with the caveat that so far it looks circuit and/or tyre dependent. In other words, the pairing looks pretty close which I think makes Leclerc look pretty impressive from where I'm sitting.

I do think Vettel's not comfortable in the car and we've not yet seen the best of him. But that doesn't mean I could comfortably say he's quicker than Leclerc and I think the battle between the two will be fascinating to watch this year


The purpose of racing is being the fastest on the whole length of the race (on average of all stints). On the first three races, Leclerc should have finished in front of Vettel at all races, despite n°2 driver strategies (who really thinks, apart from Binotto, that Leclerc needed hard tyres when he was the last of the "top teams" drivers to change tyres in Australia ?), except for team orders. Ferrari can be pleased their car is not that good (yet ?), for once they won't have to question their drivers or their drivers management for not winning any championship... Just blame the car.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:40 am 
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Rockie wrote:
gregs51 wrote:
Rockie wrote:
I never get this about critics of Vettel, I wonder whether folks even think of the absurdity behind their line of reasoning.

Folks who don't rate Vettel, but then go on to praise whoever beats him. What kind of mental gymnastics do you have to do to arrive at such position?

In '15 vettel beat Kimi by the same if not more margin that Alonso beat same driver by, but somehow


I actually think the reasoning here is quite sound. It's not so much about his driving ability as it is a conversation about his mental state and a common sense analysis of the financials of his contract, and available drives.


Nobody in the mental health profession will analyse someone they have no inside knowledge of outside of seeing them at race weekends on TV, what common sense analysis, do you have vettel's performance data or the value he brings to the team, or you know how the team works?
From behind your screen and keyboard you are guessing and not saying its your opinion but tag it as common sense which is a bit disingenuous as that means anyone who does not agree with it lacks common sense!


Note that I said 'conversation about his mental state', not an 'in-depth analysis'. No one here is suggesting they know what's going on in his head, but we can certainly observe from the outside. Body language, choice of words - you don't need a PhD to know someone's feeling the pressure. I wasn't trying to stir up anything or criticise an obviously very good driver, but we're all rightly intrigued about what's coming. It's still early days but it's certainly more worth talking about than the championship at this point.

Ferrari just have to hope Vettel begins to assert his authority and experience. If not then they have two choices: Let them race, or persist with team orders all year making themselves (and Vettel) look a bit ridiculous. Personally I just want to see some racing. Isn't that what we're here for?


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:24 am 
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F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
F1 Racer wrote:
pokerman wrote:
I think it's an early call to talk about his demise, as far as I can see it's probably 2-1 to Vettel so far, Leclerc has beat him fair and square just the once on speed, however one rider that doesn't look that good for Vettel is the amount of points he has scored thus far, of the top drivers he's only ahead of Leclerc and behind Verstappen who has a slower car, if not for team orders he probably would be behind Leclerc as well.


I thought Leclerc was all over the back of Vettel in Australia towards the end and behing held up? Team orders forced him to hold station so I would give that one to Leclerc, or at least have it as a draw, (due to Vettel outqualifying Leclerc).

You have to also factor in the poor strategy that Vettel had trying to undercut Hamilton for second place, Hamilton having to counter this also exaggerated the final gap to Bottas who like Leclerc were on better strategies.


It's only a slightly poorer strategy though, and could have been utilised better to leave a larger gap to Leclerc. For example Vettel was able to unfairly pull out more of a gap in the first stint by pushing his tyres harder with the knowledge of an early stop was likely. Then in the immediate laps after his stop he would have been much quicker than Leclerc on old tyres who was running longer, pulling out an unfair amount of time on him during this period too. Then Leclerc has better tyres for the rest of the race after his stop to try and gain the lost ground, but if Vettel was genuinely quicker then Leclerc wouldn't have been able to pull all of it back like that.

Essentially Vettel had the better tyre conditions for most of the first half of the race, and if he was quicker than Charles in general pace, then he should be too far ahead for Leclerc to regain all of that time in the latter 60% of the race where Leclerc still also has to manage his tyres. The fact that Charles was able to regain all of that lost time and then be glued to the back of SV for the last few laps, implies to me that SV wasn't much quicker if at all than CL in the race.

Let's agree that it's been quite close between Vettel and Leclerc and the points tend to reflect that?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:27 am 
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Double post

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2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 32nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


Last edited by pokerman on Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:28 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
Zoue wrote:
Vettel was much better than Leclerc on the Softs in Australia, whereas Leclerc was much better on the Mediums. I think strategy did play a big part because if Vettel had only gone a few more laps on the Softs he would have built up enough of a buffer that Leclerc wouldn't have been able to overcome the deficit. Ultimately Vettel was probably fortunate that Leclerc was given a holding order, but OTOH it's very difficult to overtake in Australia so there's no guarantee that Leclerc would have been able to get past if he'd have tried. I'm inclined to give Australia as a draw on the speed front between the two, given that the tyres made such a huge difference as to who was quicker.

In Bahrain there's no question that Leclerc was significantly quicker, whereas in China I think Vettel was slightly quicker. So on speed so far this year I'd have Leclerc ahead, with the caveat that so far it looks circuit and/or tyre dependent. In other words, the pairing looks pretty close which I think makes Leclerc look pretty impressive from where I'm sitting.

I do think Vettel's not comfortable in the car and we've not yet seen the best of him. But that doesn't mean I could comfortably say he's quicker than Leclerc and I think the battle between the two will be fascinating to watch this year


Yes, I get the same feeling.

It seems that Leclerc is looking for answers now from Ferrari for the team orders according to some articles. I guess they did say that they will support Vettel in the first few races, so now Leclerc is right to question his own status. I hope he's not biting more than he can chew, I still want to see him perform in the wet before I make my mind between these two.

Yes Ferrari are basically doing what they said they would be doing in the first few races, maybe it's for Leclerc to decide whether he wants to be a Hamilton or a Barrichello/Massa/Kimi?

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place
2019: Currently 32nd

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (6)


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